Offset Contracts as an Insurance Device in Building the National Security

A dynamic multi-stage decision-theoretic approach is introduced to establish the optimal offset and its incidence, the contract price arising from bargaining, and the scale of the acquisition. A new rationale is suggested for offsets in terms of their role as an insurance devise. Results are derived for the pricing of delivery contracts subject to offset claims and their national security implications. It is shown that the national security is strictly convex in the offset transaction. As to the incidence of the offset, the offset claim is shown to be capitalised in the delivery price. The bargaining price is shown to depend on the value of the product to be delivered for the national security, the relative negotiation power of the contracting partners and the social cost of public funds. The analysis highlights the expectation effects of offsets on the bargaining price and the scale of delivery. The results aid in explaining why offsets are widely used in procurement contracts for defence materiel. As they contribute to the national security, they should be allowed to survive and not be denied under competition laws.     

Sweden and the issue of NATO membership: exploring a public opinion paradox

The past decade has seen substantial shifts in Swedish security policy and major change in the domestic debate about NATO. For the first time, all of the right-of-centre “alliance parties” are calling for a full NATO membership, and popular support for NATO has increased. Yet public opinion contains ambiguities and paradoxes that complicate the picture. At the same time as support for NATO has increased, the public is overwhelmingly for continued military non-alignment. Drawing on previous research, longitudinal data from national surveys, and other sources on defence and security issues, this article aims to increase our understanding of the development and change in Swedish public opinion on NATO. A key argument is that Erving Goffman’s theatre metaphor, combined with neo-institutional decoupling theory, to a large degree can help understand the public opinion paradox.     

目标识别的D-S融合算法

从防空角度出发,详细地阐明了D-S理论中关于多传感器数据融合的原理和目标识别的方法,同时结合应用实例给出了详细和可行的算法.     

弹炮一体化防空系统的服务概率模型

弹炮一体化防空系统是未来高技术局部战争中应急机动部队的主要防空武器。首先给出了弹炮一体化防空系统服务概率的定义 ,然后通过研究这种防空武器对目标服务过程的特点 ,建立了服务概率计算模型 ,为评价这种防空武器的射击能力和系统效能 ,提供了必要的分析手段     

对岸上线目标、面目标射击的效力评估

主要对岸上线目标、面目标进行间接射击时 ,射击效力指标 (相对毁伤目标长度或相对毁伤目标面积数学期望 )的计算进行了讨论。推导出在弹丸的毁伤半径和射击误差不变的情况下 ,毁伤长度或面积同目标长度之间的关系 ,以及相对毁伤长度或面积同目标长度之间的关系。     

基于压电薄膜传感器的穿戴式健康监测体域网系统

为实现脉搏、呼吸、血压等重要生理信号的连续运动监测,研制了一种基于压电薄膜传感器的穿戴式健康监测体域网系统。体域网系统利用放置于弹性织物(腰带、腕带)内部的压电薄膜传感器获取人体脉搏波、呼吸波等生理信号。根据压电薄膜传感器监测到的呼吸信号的几何特征提出一种状态识别算法,可区分站立、走、跑、坐、躺、睡眠等状态。利用脉搏波传导时间与血压的关系计算佩戴者的收缩压和舒张压,实现无压迫血压监测。系统通过蓝牙实现体域网节点的互通信,利用穿戴显示设备和移动终端实现数据显示,实现了脉搏、呼吸、血压的连续运动监测。     

Securitising humanitarian assistance and post-conflict reconstruction in Africa: A critical review of South Africa's new defence policy

The South African Defence Review 2014 is the country's new defence policy. The Review, which is expected to steer South African defence policymaking for the next few decades, discusses in detail the role of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) in peace missions in Africa and proposes the direct involvement of the country's soldiers in both military and civilian tasks, from peacekeeping to humanitarian assistance, post-conflict reconstruction and development. This paper contains a critical review of the Review with regard to South Africa's envisaged contribution to regional and continental peace and stability. It is argued that humanitarian assistance and post-conflict reconstruction should not be securitised and that the SANDF should only be tasked with peacekeeping and the establishment of stability and security in fragile in-conflict and post-conflict settings. The humanitarian work should be left to humanitarian and aid agencies, while reconstruction and development should be left to organisations such as the New Partnership for Africa's Development, continental and international development organisations, and local actors.     

航母综合作战区警戒兵力对潜警戒能力及配置

在定量分析综合作战区航母受敌潜艇威胁、警戒兵力对潜警戒能力的基础上,依据航母综合作战区警戒兵力配置的基本原则,提出了航母综合作战区对潜警戒兵力配置的方法,可为反潜作战指挥员优化航母综合作战区对潜警戒兵力的配置提供决策支持与参考。     

雨天毫米波制导导弹打击岛礁区水面目标研究

岛礁区作战中,具有二次开机的雷达制导导弹开机后极有可能漏捕目标而错捕岛屿。针对该问题,研究利用适量降雨衰减毫米波雷达的作用距离,使得导引头在全程搜索飞行的过程中先捕目标而不捕岛,到达与末制导雷达提前开机一样的作战效果。基于雨天背景,分析了降雨对毫米波雷达作用距离衰减的影响,总结了毫米波制导导弹打击岛礁区附近目标作战的具体步骤和方法,对反舰导弹岛礁区作战使用具有一定的参考价值。