Artificial intelligence & future warfare: implications for international security

Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) suggest that this emerging technology will have a deterministic and potentially transformative influence on military power, strategic competition, and world politics more broadly. After the initial surge of broad speculation in the literature related to AI this article provides some much needed specificity to the debate. It argues that left unchecked the uncertainties and vulnerabilities created by the rapid proliferation and diffusion of AI could become a major potential source of instability and great power strategic rivalry. The article identifies several AI-related innovations and technological developments that will likely have genuine consequences for military applications from a tactical battlefield perspective to the strategic level.     

陆军无人装备作战指挥信息系统

本文对陆战场无人化、智能化作战需求及其对指挥信息系统的能力要求进行分析。以美军为典型样例对无人装备的指挥信息系统发展现状进行分析,对无人装备作战指挥信息系统体系架构进行构想,并提出未来需重点突破的关键技术,最后对军队无人装备指挥信息体系的发展提出了几点建议。     

Israel’s Security Nexus as Strategic Restraint: The Case of Iran 2009–2013

This article examines the debates in Israel between 2009 and 2013 over Iran’s nuclear programme as a reflection of a particular type of civil–military or civil–security relationship. It analyses how key actors within that relationship – particularly those with an intelligence background – engaged with media outlets in Israel and further afield to influence domestic and international opinion over how best to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In so doing, it seeks to address one fundamental question: are governments in Jerusalem any longer the final arbiters over deciding what is in the national security interests of the State of Israel?     

Saddam versus the inspectors: the impact of regime security on the verification of Iraq’s WMD disarmament

The discovery that Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in 2003 raised the question of why Saddam had prevented UN weapons inspectors from fully accounting for his disarmament. The leading explanation for Saddam’s behavior is that he valued ambiguity as part of a strategy of ‘deterrence by doubt’. This article argues that Iraq’s obstruction of inspectors in the late 1990s was motivated by his desire to shield Iraq’s regime security apparatus from UNSCOM’s intrusive counter-concealment inspections. The failure to understand how strongly Saddam’s concerns about his personal safety drove Iraq’s contentious relationship with UNSCOM set the stage for the invasion of Iraq in 2003.     

新形势下以需求为导向的装备保障能力建设

分析了军事智能技术的由来与发展现状,探讨了目前世界军事智能技术的应用领域。重点阐述军事智能技术对中国军事实力提高的重要意义、如何加快军事智能技术发展的几个问题,为中国军队未来智能化发展和应用提出建设性的思考。     

基于agent的多传感器管理原型系统研究

近年来,基于agent的分布式智能系统已成功应用于众多领域。将多agent技术应用于多传感器管理领域研究,以开发多传感器智能管理的多agent系统,提出了其原型系统的基本框架和系统实现途径及方法,其中着重研究了融合agent与传感器agent的原型系统结构、基于多a-gent理论的传感器管理问题分布式任务分解与控制问题以及agent之间的协调合作问题。原型系统的研究,为实际应用系统的研制开发提供了理论指导和方法依据。     

基于多Agent的战场情报侦察仿真模型

为了开展未来信息化战场情报侦察先期概念技术演示,通过采用基于多Agent的仿真方法,把情报侦察系统的内部组元直接映射成相应的Agent,研究了基于多Agent的战场情报侦察仿真系统总体框架和仿真系统基本单元Agent的框架;并进一步研究了Agent之间的任务分解、信息交换、选择与排序、分配过程。构建的仿真模型,以Agent的表现形式获得了对战场情报侦察这一客观、复杂过程的深刻认识,从而可实现对这种动态作战环境行为的仿真。     

指挥信息系统非线性最优化问题的混沌搜索解法

指挥信息系统进行辅助决策很多情况下是一个求解最优化问题的过程,指挥信息系统遇到的很多问题具有非线性,同时指挥信息系统对算法的适应性和收敛速度要求相当严格。对此,普通的优化技术只能求出局部最优解。基于混沌搜索技术的计算智能具有全局搜索能力强、算法简洁、计算量小、收敛速度快的特点,成为一种求解非线性最优化问题全局最优的有效方法。算例表明,当搜索次数达到一定数量时,混沌搜索方法可以保证算法收敛到全局最优解,且计算效率很高。     

C4KISR系统决策专家系统

随着人工智能技术的不断发展,为了将基于人工智能的专家系统引入到C4KISR系统,增强系统的决策支持能力,对C4KISR系统决策专家系统进行了研究,并建立了专家系统决策模型.专家系统的建立将提高C4KISR系统的作战能力.     

军事情报价值的当量评估法

研究了军事情报价值的综合性和相对性,提出了军事情报价值评估的当量分析法,分别针对确定性标度和模糊标度结合层次分析法给出了评估算法。算例结果表明方法有一定的合理性且评价结论易于理解。