“马赛克战”对装备体系试验鉴定的启示

自2017年8月DARPA公布“马赛克战”作战概念以来,世界各国都高度关注这一新型作战概念,学者们对“马赛克战”的研究也逐渐走向深入。本文首先从国际形势、美军装备特点、人工智能技术等方面分析了“马赛克战”的提出背景,回顾了其发展历程,剖析了其概念内涵,并从三个角度分析了其主要特点。接着着眼未来,从革新理念、鼓励创新、形成质变等视角探讨了“马赛克战”对装备体系试验鉴定领域未来发展方向的启示,重点论述了装备体系试验鉴定要向全智能作战体系试验鉴定方向发展的观点。最后聚焦当下,阐述了现阶段试验鉴定工作应重点关注动态互联互通性测试、互操作能力验证、新型仿真试验技术、系统自主能力等级评估及决策可解释性评估等五个方面的内容。     

More military base closure? Considering the alternatives*

Despite multiple base closing rounds, the United States Department of Defense still has excess base capacity, and thus President Trump and high-level Defense Department officials are calling for more base closure through the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process. However, another BRAC may not be the optimal solution, because simple base closure is not an efficient way to reduce surplus base capacity. Thus, Defense Department officials should consider other methods to reduce surplus capacity, including reduction in base size, leasing excess base property, or transferring it to another government agency for a variety of alternative uses. The surplus capacity issue also offers an opportunity to DOD to reassess base utilization, to update base requirements with current and future force structure. While BRAC focuses on American military bases, the process and alternatives also have international applications.     

Information sharing in multinational security and military operations. Why and why not? With whom and with whom not?

Military operations increasingly require cooperation between agencies within the same nation, but also collaboration with security and military organizations internationally. Throughout history multinational military cooperation has often been an appropriate way to conduct major operations; national manpower and material resources are generally insufficient to address the demands of missions worldwide. The desire to optimize the use of scarce research and development and investment capabilities, the need for international legitimacy and political support, and the fact that today’s risks transcend national borders, have rendered multinational cooperation in the security domain unavoidable. With joint operations comes the requirement for multi-partner- and multinational information sharing. However, information sharing has both advantages and costs, and is subject to both enabling factors as well as barriers. This paper reflects on theories, both classical and current, as well as empirical case studies, to examine the pros and cons of multinational information sharing, and the factors that conduce or interfere with the transmission and the receipt of intelligence. The importance of a holistic approach and of learning lessons learned are two key lessons gleaned from the analysis, along with an emphasis on developing both the organizational and the interpersonal enablers of information sharing.     

The Trump effect downunder: U.S. allies,Australian strategic culture,and the politics of path dependence

Donald Trump’s election precipitated a debate in Australia about the value of retaining close alliance ties with the United States. Similar dynamics are discernible in other U.S. allies as the negative impact of Trump administration policies becomes clearer. Yet despite this “Trump effect,” we argue Australia is unlikely to distance itself from the United States because at the core of Australia’s strategic culture is a very positive “cultural orientation” toward the United States that is highly institutionalized in treaties, formal bilateral ties, Track 2 diplomacy, and public opinion. Such institutionalized ties have powerful path dependent effects. Accordingly, we conclude that the Trump effect does not constitute a powerful enough “exogenous shock” to move Australia off its well-worn grand-strategic path. But this alliance relationship is marked by both high cultural affinity and high institutionalization: American policy-makers should seriously consider whether other U.S. allies can tolerate similar levels of “stress.”     

How viable is international arms control for military artificial intelligence? Three lessons from nuclear weapons

Many observers anticipate “arms races” between states seeking to deploy artificial intelligence (AI) in diverse military applications, some of which raise concerns on ethical and legal grounds, or from the perspective of strategic stability or accident risk. How viable are arms control regimes for military AI? This article draws a parallel with the experience in controlling nuclear weapons, to examine the opportunities and pitfalls of efforts to prevent, channel, or contain the militarization of AI. It applies three analytical lenses to argue that (1) norm institutionalization can counter or slow proliferation; (2) organized “epistemic communities” of experts can effectively catalyze arms control; (3) many military AI applications will remain susceptible to “normal accidents,” such that assurances of “meaningful human control” are largely inadequate. I conclude that while there are key differences, understanding these lessons remains essential to those seeking to pursue or study the next chapter in global arms control.     

Does Military Spending Nonlinearly Affect Economic Growth in South Africa?

Using annual data collected from 1988 to 2015, this study provides evidence of a non-linear relationship between military spending, economic growth and other growth determinants for the South African economy. The empirical study is based on estimates of a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model and our empirical results point to an inverted U-shaped relationship between military spending and economic growth for the data. Furthermore, our empirical results suggest that the current levels of military spending, as a component of total government expenditure, are too high in the South African economy and need to be transferred towards more productive non-military expenditure in order to improve the performance of economic growth and other growth determinants.     

美军“力量提供者”系统与野营装备建设

以美军“力量提供者”系统为研究对象,介绍其功能参数和模块组成以及部署流程,并对其先进性和不足之处进行综合评价。对照现有野营装备建设现状,提出应该加强野营装备研究、增强战略投送能力、建立专业保障力量等思考,以提高未来信息化联合作战中野营装备建设水平。     

计算机应用系统体系结构及部署方法研究

描述了Client/Server和Browser/Server两大体系结构模式及其架构的软件体系思想,并通过实例重点介绍基于.NET平台部署B/S架构的实现方法。     

一种改进的雷达探测概率计算方法

基于对指挥自动化系统日常积累的雷达情报数据进行处理,提出了一种改进的雷达探测概率计算方法。综合考虑了目标在飞行过程中,RCS随着其与雷达相对位置的变化而变化的因素,对各个高度层上的航迹按距离取样间隔分段,统计各分段内的观测点数和发现点数,从而计算各距离取样间隔内的发现概率,再根据目标相对雷达的俯仰角和方位角对距离取样间隔中心点的探测距离进行修正。     

故障预测技术综述

把握新军事变革机遇,加快信息化建设步伐,对军事装备进行有效的质量监控和故障预测是技术保障的重要内容。阐述了故障预测技术,系统地介绍了现有的、比较有代表性的故障预测技术方法,并叙述了其优缺点;最后重点对故障预测技术的发展前景进行了展望,指出了该研究领域当前需要进一步研究的问题和发展方向。研究故障预测技术对提高装备的维修和保障能力具有十分重要的意义。