退化速率跟踪粒子滤波在剩余使用寿命预测中的应用

毋庸置疑,剩余使用寿命预测对于设备的健康管理越来越重要。近年来粒子滤波方法被越来越多地应用到设备寿命预测技术当中,这是因为粒子滤波方法能更好地解决非线性非高斯系统滤波问题,而且能够获得不确定度信息。但该方法的预测性能却过度依赖于预测模型,并且对于模型参数的初始分布也比较敏感,这在一定程度上限制了粒子滤波预测方法的进一步发展。针对基本粒子滤波预测方法的不足,提出了一种基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的通用预测框架,以历史观测数据的退化速率统计规律作为指导来跟踪目标数据的退化速率,实现对粒子滤波预测方法的简化,并将该方法用于轴承和锂离子电池的剩余使用寿命预测,验证了方法的有效性。     

面向多星观测调度的分层迭代算法

提出一种基于分治策略的多星观测分层调度框架,在该框架下,用蚁群优化算法把任务分配至各轨道圈次上,并利用自适应模拟退火算法求解各轨道圈次的调度问题。根据各轨道圈次调度结果的反馈情况,再调整任务分配方案,重复上述过程直到达到算法终止条件。为了提高算法的性能,在设计蚁群算法的启发式信息模型时,应充分考虑卫星调度问题的领域知识;在模拟退火算法中设计两个邻域结构,采用动态选择策略在优化过程中确定最佳邻域搜索结构。仿真实验表明,该方法有效地降低了问题求解的复杂度,尤其在求解大规模多星观测调度问题时表现出优异的性能。     

新型防火板材包覆保护钢结构方法探讨

新型防火板材是钢结构防火技术新的发展方向,结合钢结构防火保护技术的发展与现状,对GF防火板（1100℃级轻质无石棉硅酸钙防火板）、高温耐火胶粘剂以及用GF防火板保护钢结构的方法进行了深入的研究,并与目前大量使用的钢结构防火涂料作对比,探讨了新型防火板材在技术性能和工程施工方面的优势。     

中国维和警察学科理论体系基本框架构想

中国维和警察参与联合国维和行动已成为我国公安工作的重要内容,把中国维和警察理论作为中国警学的新兴学科,研究由联合国维和行动基本理论、中国维和警察特色理论、中国维和警察基础理论、中国维和警察专业理论、中国维和警察应用理论构建的中国维和警察学科理论体系基本框架,对我国维和警察工作的发展具有重要的促进作用。     

油料装备信息化的网络架构设想

网络化是实现油料装备信息化的关键。在分析后勤信息网络现有问题的基础上,提出为了充分利用现有的资源和技术,实现与现有网络的无缝融合,油料装备信息化应当基于分布式开放网络的架构,由TCP／IP以及HTTP提供基本的网络连接条件和所需地址。为满足油料装备信息处理的特殊要求,应在标准Internet协议基础上定义油料装备通信协议以处理相关信息的发现、描述、传输和控制需求。     

基于发布订阅机制的态势信息实时分发框架

针对战场态势分发信息量大、实时性要求高、不同用户需求差异大的特点,提出了一种基于发布订阅机制的态势信息实时分发框架。构建态势元数据模型,能够描述战场态势信息和需求方的偏好,将态势更新看成发布事件,需求方看成订阅者,设计基于态势数据元模型设计合适的匹配算法。在此基础上给出了态势信息实时分发框架,能够指导构建面向服务架构的新型战场态势信息分发系统。     

Elements of ‘armed non-state actors’ power: The case of al-Qaeda in Yemen

Over the past few years there is an apparent re-regionalization of al-Qaeda activity, intensified by the ongoing Middle East turmoil. Its main characteristic is a trend towards the abandonment of focoist strategies and their replacement by more popular-based ones. This article aims at evaluating their capacity to implement such a strategy shift and sustain the required level of violence. As a means of evaluating this capacity, this article proposes the use of a DIME (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic) framework, which will hopefully provide an alternative angle of theorizing and understanding ‘armed non-state actors’ (ANSAs). The model is applied in the case of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which appears to have effectively developed the military and informational dimensions, due partly to its own prowess and partly to the Yemeni state's weaknesses and the shortcomings of counterinsurgency. In contrast, the economic and diplomatic dimensions suffer from the lack of resources and the anti-systemic nature of AQAP.     

ANALYSING QUITS AND SEPARATIONS FROM THE ROYAL NAVY

Manning difficulties and retention of skilled personnel is a timely issue in the British armed forces, and especially in the all‐volunteer Royal Navy. Allied with difficulties of matching personnel numbers and posts, significant skill mismatches can take a long time to eradicate, with obvious financial and operational penalties. In the light of these factors, a holistic understanding of the exit behaviour of naval personnel is vital for naval manpower planners. This paper analyses ratings’ voluntary (quits) and involuntary (separation) exit patterns from the Royal Navy using an independent competing risks hazard regression analysis framework. The results show that both voluntary and involuntary exits are pro cyclical with respect to macroeconomic and labour market conditions for both male and female ratings. Male ratings are more likely to quit or separate due to a lack of promotion to higher ranks as compared with females. Male ratings are also more likely to quit as a result of a hectic operational tempo when compared with their female counterparts. Frequency of sea/shore deployments also seems to exert a significant effect with respect to quits and separation outcomes of both genders. In terms of marital status married males are less likely to quit compared with their unmarried male counterparts, whereas the opposite is the case for female ratings.     

面向服务的海战场指挥信息系统体系结构框架

一体化联合作战和基于信息系统的体系作战对海战场指挥信息系统提出了更高的要求.从面向服务的海战场指挥信息系统构建需求出发,在军事信息服务定义的基础上,利用SOA和P2P设计了海战场指挥信息系统体系结构的物理框架和功能框架,给出了各框架的组成和结构,并与已有框架作了对比分析,结果表明所提的框架更加全面、可靠和灵活,为开展面向服务的指挥信息系统研究打下了坚实的基础.     

建筑防火性能化设计方法的基本框架与特征

总结建筑防火技术措施和防火设计发展趋势,给出“性能化”设计方法的基本框架,论述“处方式”和“性能化”设计方法的基本特征。