摩步师(团)反空袭作战空中威胁评估

运用定量和定性分析相结合的方法,对摩步师(团)战斗行动中面临的空中威胁进行了分析,提出了评估的方法和步骤,建立了评估模型,并结合实例对评估方法、步骤、模型进行了分析验证.实例计算表明,该方法的判断结果预见性好、可靠性强,对未来摩步师(团)反空袭作战有一定的现实意义.     

AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL OF CAPITAL AND ARMS ACCUMULATION

This paper attempts to examine the effect of an anticipated foreign military threat on the steady‐state growth rate and the transitional behavior of the economy. The modeling strategy follows the Sandler and Hartley (1995 Sandler, T. and Hartley, K. 1995. The Economics of Defense, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]) and Dunne et al. (2005 Dunne, J.P., Smith, R.P. and Willenbockel, D. 2005. Models of military expenditure and growth: a critical review. Defence and Peace Economics, 16: 449–461. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) viewpoints to emphasize the role of national defense in affecting growth from the perspective of both the demand and the supply sides. We thus combine the public capital version of endogenous growth with a framework of competitive arms accumulation. It is found that the key factor determining the steady state and the transitional effects of a rise in the foreign military threat on the home weapon–capital ratio, the consumption–capital ratio, and the rate of economic growth, is the degree of relative risk aversion.     

Proportional use of force in asymmetric military operation

This paper studies a strategic conflict between a state and a non-state military organization. The non-state military organization decides whether to attack or not to attack the state, while the state decides on its counter-measure. If the state uses a high level of violence against the non-state organization, it may be accused by the international community of ‘non-proportional’ use of force, and both sides of the conflict take this possibility into account. The model predicts that it may be rational for the non-state organization to attack the state, even if as a reaction the state will militarily destroy this organization, due to a positive probability the state will be punished by the international community for non-proportional use of violence.     

Trinitarian troubles: governmental,military, and societal explanations for post-1945 Western failures in asymmetric conflicts

It seems paradoxical that powerful Western states are at their most vulnerable when the disparity in military capabilities between them and their opponents is at its largest. Yet it is precisely in such ‘asymmetric conflicts’ that Western countries have failed to achieve their overall political objectives the most often. Focusing on the post-1945 world, this article will examine governmental, military, and societal reasons for Western failures in asymmetric conflicts. Politicians' lack of understanding regarding war's fundamental nature, militaries' tendency to dissociate operational goals from grand strategy objectives and citizens' moral aversion to warfare appear to be among the main obstacles to success.     

基于区间数理论的空战目标威胁评估

针对空战目标威胁评估问题,提出了一种新的基于区间数理论的评估方法。在分析了现有的目标威胁评估方法中距离威胁模型存在不足的基础上,提出了改进的距离威胁模型。给出了区间数特征向量法求解威胁指标权重的计算步骤,建立了基于区间数理论的空战目标威胁评估的数学模型。最后给出了仿真算例,仿真结果表明该方法是合理和有效的。     

战斗机隐蔽接敌轨迹优化方法

针对空战对抗的隐蔽作战需求,对战斗机隐蔽接敌方法进行研究。基于战斗机雷达反射截面积的动态特性建立雷达探测威胁模型;以空战态势参数为状态建立接敌引导模型;以给定目标发现概率为暴露阈值进行威胁约束;以最小化接敌过程中累积被发现概率为性能指标;将战斗机隐蔽接敌问题建模为隐蔽性约束下的最优控制问题。为保证算法的实时性和有效性,引入滚动时域控制策略进行在线优化,并采用高斯伪谱法进行数值求解。仿真实验表明,通过路径约束和性能指标双重约束,能有效增强战斗机接敌的隐蔽性,算法实时性能满足战斗机控制的需求。     

基于改进萤火虫优化算法的BP神经网络目标群威胁判断

以舰艇防空作战目标选择决策和规划需求为背景,针对萤火虫算法求解精度不高且收敛速度较慢的问题,提出可动态调整步长的改进萤火虫优化算法。在改进萤火虫优化算法的基础上,建立基于改进萤火虫优化算法的BP神经网络目标群威胁判断结构模型。通过改进萤火虫算法优化BP神经网络的初始权值和阈值,能够更好地预测测试集。实验结果表明,该方法可快速、准确地实现目标群威胁判断。     

D-S证据理论在潜艇威胁判断中的应用

简要介绍了潜艇威胁判断原理和D-S证据推理基本思想。针对潜艇水下收集目标信息的特点,引入了D-S证据推理系统分析了潜艇威胁判断中的两个关键性环节。判断目标发现本艇与否、判断目标可能采取的攻防决策问题,在把不确定推理应用于潜艇威胁判断研究上作了初步尝试。     

依据部分属性值的空中目标威胁快速排序方法

针对空中目标威胁排序问题,提出了一种依据部分属性值即可对目标威胁进行快速排序的方法.首先选取具有代表性的样本数据作为案例库;然后确定条件属性和决策属性,在利用K-均值聚类算法对决策属性进行离散化后,提出了一种针对连续条件属性值的全局离散化方法,并对离散化后的案例库进行属性约简并得出决策规则;最后将待排序目标各属性值进行...     

大口径舰炮将重展雄风

由于浅水战争和不对称威胁,要求在中短距离上攻击各种目标,但这种条件常常严重地阻碍了反舰导弹性能的发挥。同反舰导弹相比,大口径火炮要便宜得多,能更加即时地使用,且快速灵活,所以现在各大军事强国都在加紧研制新型大口径舰炮,重新考虑使用大口径火炮来代替反舰导弹,并且提供海上火力支援,使大口径舰炮重新登上战舰的舞台。为此,介绍了美国、德国、英国、意大利、俄罗斯、法国的大口径火炮研制情况。