Pairwise model discrimination with applications in lifetime distributions and degradation processes

Reliability data obtained from life tests and degradation tests have been extensively used for purposes such as estimating product reliability and predicting warranty costs. When there is more than one candidate model, an important task is to discriminate between the models. In the literature, the model discrimination was often treated as a hypothesis test and a pairwise model discrimination procedure was carried out. Because the null distribution of the test statistic is unavailable in most cases, the large sample approximation and the bootstrap were frequently used to find the acceptance region of the test. Although these two methods are asymptotically accurate, their performance in terms of size and power is not satisfactory in small sample size. To enhance the small‐sample performance, we propose a new method to approximate the null distribution, which builds on the idea of generalized pivots. Conventionally, the generalized pivots were often used for interval estimation of a certain parameter or function of parameters in presence of nuisance parameters. In this study, we further extend the idea of generalized pivots to find the acceptance region of the model discrimination test. Through extensive simulations, we show that the proposed method performs better than the existing methods in discriminating between two lifetime distributions or two degradation models over a wide range of sample sizes. Two real examples are used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

新体制导航信号下I/Q幅相不一致对接收机测距零值的影响分析

随着现代化导航信号带宽的增大,由于可以大幅降低采样率,复信号采样的优势日趋明显。由于存在I/Q幅相误差,复信号采样对导航接收机伪距测量造成了一定影响。改进了信道非理想与I/Q幅相误差共同影响BPSK/QPSK信号零值测量的分析模型;在该模型基础上,推导得到了任意I/Q误差和信道非理想特性影响BOC信号伪距零值的模型;探讨了二者在频域抗干扰应用场景下引起的零值变化;理论分析与软件接收机仿真结果高度吻合,误差在1.5×10^-4码片内,证明了分析模型的精确性。该分析方法可用于对高性能导航接收机信道特性进行事先约束及筛选,以确保干扰场景下的零值变化满足要求。     

火箭-双燃烧室冲压组合循环发动机概念研究

临近空间高超声速飞行器近年来获得了广泛关注,本文提出一种以基于火箭发动机和双燃烧室冲压发动机的多模态火箭-双燃烧室冲压组合循环发动机作为飞行器的动力系统,并进行了性能分析研究。该飞行器在海拔10 km左右高度以0.8马赫的速度投放,在重力和发动机推力的联合作用下,能够在海拔5～8 km处加速到2马赫;然后加速爬升进入临近空间,发动机工作在引射亚燃或者双燃烧室亚燃模态下。可以根据实际选择高推重比、较低推进剂比冲效率的引射亚燃模态,或是较低推重比、高推进剂比冲效率的双燃烧室亚燃模态。最终飞行器加速到6马赫(26 km),进入双燃室超燃模态。针对空中发射模式和地面发射模式进行了轨道优化,仿真结果表明:在加速爬升到6马赫(26 km)的过程中,空中发射模式相比较地面发射模式可以节省37%的推进剂;空中发射模式存在一个负的最优初始飞行角度使得剩余质量与初始质量的比值达到最大。     

战场数据融合仿真系统设计与实现

介绍了一种战场数据融合仿真系统的设计与实现方法。该系统由场景设定、信号产生、融合跟踪处理、目标识别、态势与威胁估计与数据库支持等功能子系统组成,模拟了数据融合的整个信息处理流程,包括:主动探测雷达、雷达侦察设备、通信侦察设备和敌我识别器获取敌我目标观测信息、利用多传感器跟踪数据对目标进行融合跟踪、提取辐射源电磁信息特征对敌方目标识别,进而形成态势与威胁估计。最终在Visual C#开发平台上利用MapX和ORACLE开发了战场数据融合仿真系统,并成功应用于实际系统中,取得了较好的效果。     

某型导发架通用测试系统软件复用性设计

测试软件的复用性是摆在测试界面前亟待解决的重要问题。运用统一建模语言(Unified Modeling Language,UML)对测试软件进行建模,包括:测试系统的类图、软件功能分解、功能子系统的上下文模型、测试软件需求特征树以及软件功能子系统的顺序交互视图。在Visual C++6.0环境中,采用"应用程序框架+可复用构件"开发方式,实现了基于可复用构件的某型导发架测试系统应用软件组装,成功解决了导发架测试领域内同一系列产品间测试软件的可复用问题。     

遥感图像融合效果客观评价

能够对不同的融合技术的性能进行客观、系统、全面地评价,成为目前空间信息处理以及遥感图像融合研究领域中亟待解决的问题。对国内外遥感图像融合系统及技术的发展历程进行了介绍,重点分析了遥感图像融合效果评估技术的研究现状,归纳了现有的效果评估方法。通过实验,进一步讨论了当前遥感图像融合效果评估技术所存在的主要问题,有助于明确该领域的发展方向和研究侧重点,为遥感图像融合系统及空间信息处理的研究奠定基础。     

单信道时频重叠MPSK信号的调制识别方法

提出一种基于高阶循环累积量的调制识别算法,用于解决单信道两个时频重叠M PSK信号的调制识别问题。对接收到的重叠信号进行预处理,计算其四阶循环累积量,提取分类特征参数,采用最小误差准则算法实现时频重叠双信号的自动分类。理论分析和仿真试验结果均证明了算法的正确性和有效性。     

热线瞄准射击影像判读原理

针对部队训练需求和理论上的空白,根据热线瞄准原理,从理论上分析了热线瞄准射击影像的判读原理,指出了与前置瞄准射击影像判读的本质不同,提出了判读步骤,为进一步开发判读工具提供了理论依据。     

基于博弈论的C~4ISR系统监视与侦察功能模型

监视与侦察已成为现代C4ISR系统的重要组成部分,传统的监视与侦察系统效能分析方法存在模型难以建立、结果不准确等问题,很难量化其与作战效果之间的影响。在对基于Lanchester方程的C4ISR系统建模方法进行研究的基础上,提出了反映监视与侦察功能的Lanchester方程模型,并引入博弈论分析了战场上信息的不对称对交战结果的影响,克服了描述C4ISR系统的Lanchester方程没有考虑作战单元、对手和环境间的动态交互以及数学结构简单的缺点。仿真结果验证了模型的有效性。     

Fully sequential procedures for comparing constrained systems via simulation

We consider the problem of finding the system with the best primary performance measure among a finite number of simulated systems in the presence of a stochastic constraint on a single real‐valued secondary performance measure. Solving this problem requires the identification and removal from consideration of infeasible systems (Phase I) and of systems whose primary performance measure is dominated by that of other feasible systems (Phase II). We use indifference zones in both phases and consider two approaches, namely, carrying out Phases I and II sequentially and carrying out Phases I and II simultaneously, and we provide specific example procedures of each type. We present theoretical results guaranteeing that our approaches (general and specific, sequential and simultaneous) yield the best system with at least a prespecified probability, and we provide a portion of an extensive numerical study aimed at evaluating and comparing the performance of our approaches. The experimental results show that both new procedures are useful for constrained ranking and selection, with neither procedure showing uniform superiority over the other.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010