基于不稳定性采样的主动学习方法

传统的主动学习方法往往仅基于当前的目标模型来挑选样本,而忽略了历史模型所蕴含的对未标注样本预测稳定性的信息。因此,提出基于不稳定性采样的主动学习方法,依据历史模型的预测差异来估计每个未标注样本对提高模型性能的潜在效用。该方法基于历史模型对样本的预测后验概率之间的差异来衡量无标注样本的不稳定性,并挑选最不稳定的样本进行查询。在多个数据集上的大量实验结果验证了方法的有效性。     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

基于费效分析的地空导弹火力配系优化

为科学评价地空导弹火力配系方案,针对不同的地空导弹火力组成体系,采用费效分析方法,结合地空导弹操作使用,首先给出了地空导弹火力配系费效分析步骤,然后分别对火力配系的费用和效能进行了讨论,并建立了火力配系费效准则和综合费效比模型,最后通过区域反导实例验证了该方法的可行性.     

基于宽带Delphi和功能分解相结合的装备软件早期成本估算

针对装备软件早期成本估算时存在的相关成本信息基础薄弱的“贫信息”问题,提出了基于宽带Delphi与功能分解的装备软件早期成本估算组合法。该组合法依据领域专家的知识和经验对软件成本做出判断,避免了需要过多依赖历史信息的局限性。而功能分解法能将软件按功能模块进行细分,提高了宽带Delphi估算的精度。     

非平稳高斯序列最大值的几乎处处中心极限定理

在较弱的条件下,研究了一类非平稳高斯序列的几乎处处中心极限定理.设{Xa,n≥1}为一非平稳高斯序列,记其协方差为rij=Cov(Xi,Xj).假设该序列满足如下条件:对充分大的n,若存在0<α<1当|i-j|>nα时,rijlog|j-i|(l0glog|j-i|)1+ε一致有界.在这一条件下,通过利用概率极限理论,...     

基于北斗短报文的远海实时精密单点定位

针对远海精密导航与定位费用高昂的问题,提出利用北斗短报文传输多模全球导航卫星系统的实时服务数据,实现远海实时精密单点定位。为了降低通信成本和硬件成本,本研究对实时服务数据进行简化,弥补了北斗短报文带宽的不足;为了克服北斗短报文频率低的缺点,采取了实时精密星历预报的方法,来获取分钟间隔以外时刻的卫星轨道位置和钟差改正。对基于北斗短报文的远海实时精密单点定位的数据处理过程进行了仿真模拟。后期处理实测海洋观测数据,对定位性能进行测试,可实现水平方向厘米级定位,竖直方向精度为10~20 cm。该方法为低成本的远海实时定位提供了技术参考。     

基于案例的推理在舰船维修费预测中的应用

针对市场经济条件下舰船维修费预测不确定性越来越大的问题,提出了一种基于案例推理的舰船维修费预测模型。首先,利用修船厂的历史数据,采用特征向量表示法构建舰船维修费案例库;其次,为提高案例检索效率,采用组合模糊聚类算法建立舰船维修费案例的分类索引结构,并提出基于最近邻法的两步检索策略检索相似案例;最后,采用加权平均法对相似案例进行修改以获取预测值,同时采用主动学习策略保存当前案例并更新案例库。实例仿真结果表明:与传统舰船维修费预测模型相比,基于案例的推理模型具有更高的预测精度,所提模型是有效的。     

15000m~3钢板贴壁油罐建设静态投资分析

以部队某保障基地油库军用柴油扩容工程采用钢板贴壁工艺新建的1座15 000 m3地下水封油池为例,从技术经济学角度对钢板贴壁油罐作了静态投资分析。该钢板贴壁油罐静态总投资1 756.95万元,其中占总投资比例最高者为地下工程建设,达到53.76%,库容投资1 171.30元/m3。结果表明:钢板贴壁油罐较地下水封石洞油罐整体经济效益明显;投资定额可供编制预算参考。     

基于作业成本原理的飞行训练保障费用模型

飞行训练保障费用是飞机使用保障费用中的重要组成部分,也是使用保障费用估算的重点和难点。结合目前航空兵部队实际工作情况,首先利用作业成本法的基本原理,对航空兵部队飞行保障阶段的作业进行划分,得出成本库及成本动因。其次针对军机飞行保障阶段的多种作业,建立基于作业成本法的飞行训练保障费用模型。最后通过算例说明其比其他估算方法所具备的优势。     

基于OPENGL的面目标平均相对毁伤计算方法

目前,均匀面目标平均相对毁伤的计算无论是解析法还是模拟法都采用了将面目标离散化的思想,存在着离散方法困难、计算精度差等特点.基于OpenGL像素颜色混合机制,提出了直接用像素点对面目标进行离散的方法,并结合Monte-Carlo模拟方法实现了对均匀面目标平均相对毁伤的计算,给出了算法的实现步骤,通过计算实例对计算结果进行了分析.实验结果表明,此方法是计算均匀面目标平均相对毁伤一种快速有效的方法.