Deferred verification: verifiable declarations of fissile-material stocks for disarmament purposes

ABSTRACT

Nuclear disarmament is often seen as eventually requiring access to nuclear warheads or to the warhead-dismantlement process to verify that a state has not hidden weapons or weapon-materials despite promising to disarm. This article suggests this view is misplaced, and that what is needed is a verification mechanism able to provide reliable assurances of the absence of fissile materials available for use in weapons after a state has disarmed. Such a mechanism will need an initial declaration of the amount of fissile materials held by a state for all purposes, military and civilian. In a state with a nuclear arsenal awaiting elimination, this declaration would have to include materials that may not be available for verification because they are in nuclear weapons or are in other classified or proliferation-sensitive forms. This article describes a verification arrangement that does not require access to materials in weapons and in sensitive forms while still allowing checks on the overall accuracy of the declaration. Verification of the completeness and correctness of the declaration is deferred to the time when the weapons-relevant material enters the disposition process, at which point it no longer has any sensitive attributes. By removing the focus on monitoring warheads and dismantlement, this new approach could provide a more manageable path to nuclear disarmament.     

基于仿真实验的弹道导弹阵地优选

合理部署弹道导弹位置对于提高作战效能具有至关重要的作用。基于解析计算的优化方法难以反映环境因素、武器装备的技术和动力特性等不确定性因素对部署位置的影响,求得的结果存在置信度低的问题。故将解析法与仿真实验相结合,以体系对抗条件下弹道导弹作战效能评估的数学模型为基础,建立了由各种作战实体和行动的模型聚合而成的弹道导弹攻防对抗仿真模型,然后通过仿真实验找出最优部署位置,最后给出了应用示例。实验表明该方法具有速度快、效率高、结果清晰直观的特点,可为指挥员提供科学、快速的决策支持。     

弹道导弹中段拦截产生的空间碎片影响分析

针对弹道导弹中段拦截产生的空间碎片可能对在轨航天器的影响进行了分析,弹道导弹中段拦截产生的空间碎片的质量、速度和运行时间都很有限,本质上为亚轨道残骸,不会对在轨航天器造成重大影响,对在轨航天器的威胁主要来自流星和以往空间任务产生的轨道残骸.     

Damage behavior of the KKV direct hit against fluid-filled submunition payload

The damage effects of fluid-filled submunition payload impacted by the kinetic kill vehicle (KKV) are investigated by simulations and ground-based experiments. Numerical simulations showed that the damage level and number of submunitions were significantly influenced by the diameter of the KKV compared with its length. Based on that, a high velocity penetrator formed by shaped charge explosion was used to simulate the direct hit experiment of a KKV impacting submunition payload. Experimental results demonstrated that the damage modes of submunitions mainly included the slight damage, perforation and total smash, showing a good agreement with the simulations. To understand the multiple damage modes of submunitions, the damage behavior of the submunitions in direct hit process were analyzed based on the AUTODYN-3D code. Numerical results presented that increased KKV diameter can increase the crater diameter and expand the damage volume, which will achieve a higher direct hit lethality. Further analysis indicated that there were other mechanical behaviors can enhance the damage to submunitions not lying in the KKV flight path, such as secondary debris kill, neighboring submunitions collision with each other, and high-speed fluid injection effect.     

Investigation of the shock compression behaviors of Al/PTFE composites with experimental and a 3D mesoscale-model

The responses of AI/PTFE reactive materials (RMs) under shock compression were investigated by a single-stage gas gun.A 3D mesoscale-model was established based on micro-computed tomography(micro-CT) slice images and confirmed with experimental results.In the high-pressure stage,the com-posites reacted partially,whereas there were no deviations between the partially reacted Hugoniot and the inert simulation results.The simulation reveals that the Teflon matrix melting on the high shock pressure.Melts and decomposition of the PTFE accelerated the diffusion of the atoms.Thus,the reactions of the Al/PrFE composites are more like a combustion rather than a detonation.     

新型夜瞄复合荧光材料在步兵轻武器中的应用研究

采用自制的复合荧光粉体和化学载体成分,研制出一种步兵轻武器新型夜瞄复合荧光材料.试验研究和实际使用结果表明,研制的新材料发光时间长、亮度高,具有良好的耐温、耐腐蚀性能,不受轻武器的日常使用和维护影响,可满足步兵轻武器夜间瞄准需求.     

弹道导弹被动段最优脉冲变轨方法

弹道导弹大气层外飞行时间长且弹道固定,易被敌方预测和拦截。针对以上问题,本文提出一种最优脉冲式变轨方法,该方法设计的弹道由2条不同的椭圆弧段组成,成功命中目标的同时,增加了敌方的拦截难度。以机动变轨所需能量和变轨后飞行剩余时间的加权最优为性能指标,设计了利用遗传算法在初始弹道上寻求最优变轨点的方法。最后,将遗传算法搜索最优点结果与遍历搜索结果进行对比,其最大误差为 ,从而验证了遗传算法在应用于导弹变轨问题,用以寻求最优变轨点是准确有效的。     

基于飞行时间的弹道导弹火力控制

为了达到最佳射击效果,弹道导弹突击目标时经常需要多枚导弹同时击中目标,因此根据飞行时间确定发射时间则成为弹道导弹火力控制问题的重要内容。以具体导弹为例,采用仿真的方法分析了影响飞行时间的内在原因,得出了明确的结论,使导弹部队能够根据飞行时间确定发射时间,从而合理地进行火力控制,提高毁伤效果和震慑力。     

动态弹道补偿

通常意义下的弹道补偿没有考虑火炮摆动对射击的影响,因而在坦克运动或目标运动时,命中概率将大大降低.分析了由火炮摆动带来的射击误差,给出了相应的补偿算法及电路的实现方法.