A trajectory for homeland ballistic missile defense

The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is intended to protect the US homeland against limited attacks from intermediate- and long-range ballistic missiles. It has succeeded in intercepting target missiles and can engage a threat launched from North Korea or the Middle East, targeting any point in the USA. Nevertheless, high-profile struggles and program changes related to homeland ballistic missile defense (BMD) continue to make headlines. The most significant struggle has been a string of three straight intercept test failures over five years, followed by the recent successful intercept test in June 2014. This article first briefly reviews the current threats of concern. It then examines homeland BMD policy objectives, followed by the current major technical issues in supporting these objectives and, then, the likelihood of negating a warhead. Finally, it highlights major considerations that should be part of the trajectory the US government takes moving forward.     

一种结合弹道规律的模糊交互式多模型算法

针对交互式多模型算法中转移概率矩阵与实际运动不匹配而影响跟踪精度的问题,通过分析某型导弹的典型弹道,将弹道规律融合到模型概率转移矩阵中,然后将转移概率模糊化处理,提出了一种基于弹道规律的模糊交互式多模型算法,然后以导弹蛇形运动转至比例导引的机动过程为例进行了仿真验证,比较了典型交互式多模型算法和模糊交互式多模型算法的跟踪性能。仿真结果表明:该算法可显著提高导弹机动段的跟踪精度。     

未来能量互联的关键设备——固态变压器

固态变压器作为能源互联网中实现能量转换和控制的关键设备,有很多方面需要进行深入研究,文章结合固态变压器的自身特点,对其主要发展的核心技术,包括基于SiC新型宽禁带材料的研制、基于SiC的固态功率器件和固态变压器设计与实现、固态变压器的先进控制策略研究等进行了详细阐述。     

基于改进IMM-UKF的弹道导弹再入段跟踪数据滤波?

针对弹道系数未知的弹道导弹再入段跟踪雷达测量数据滤波这类非线性强的滤波问题,提出可变多模型无迹卡尔曼滤波算法。利用无迹卡尔曼滤波逼近精度高,计算量小,适应于任意非线性模型的特点,将其作为多模型的基本滤波器;滤波算法根据各模型正确描述目标状态的概率,动态地改变多模型数量和模型参数。上述方法的综合运用,提高对目标状态估计精度,降低了计算的复杂度,仿真实验验证了方法的有效性。     

战术导弹对机场跑道多波次打击时的瞄准点选择方法

为了解决使用战术导弹对机场跑道实施多波次打击时的瞄准点选择问题,在考虑具有先前毁伤效果的累积效应基础上,按照优先打击最小起降窗口、使最小维修窗口中维修工作量最大的思路,设计了一种瞄准点选择方法,可为相应的导弹作战运用提供参考。所附算例说明了文中方法的可行性。     

基于维修器材离散随机需求最佳库存量确定研究

结合装备维修器材保障工作,就维修器材离散随机需求最佳库存量确定进行研究,对其建模进行系统分析,结合修理厂维修器材最佳库存量进行实例计算,以指导维修器材最佳库存量的确定.     

ADVANCED US CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

The Obama administration has made a great effort to increase the role of advanced conventional weaponry in US national security thinking and practice, in part to help reinvigorate the global nuclear disarmament agenda by reducing the role played by nuclear weapons in the US defense posture. However, such a strategy is fundamentally flawed because increases in US conventional superiority will exacerbate US relative strength vis-à-vis other powers, and therefore make the prospect of a nuclear weapon-free world seem less attractive to Washington's current and potential nuclear rivals. Consequently, it is highly likely that the impact of efforts to increase US advanced conventional superiority through ballistic missile defense and a conventional “prompt global strike” program will ensure that the Obama administration is adopting a pathway to nuclear abolition on which it is the sole traveler for the foreseeable future.     

UNDER THE RADAR?

Missile Contagion: Cruise Missile Proliferation and the Threat to International Security, by Dennis M. Gormley. Praeger Security International, 2008. 272 pages, $54.95.     

The Trust Paradox in Nuclear Smuggling

ABSTRACT

This article explores the paradox of trust in the largest nuclear smuggling operation involving highly enriched uranium (HEU) discussed in open source literature. In the first effort to understand the type, extent, and role of trust in nuclear smuggling enterprises, it draws from literature on trust development in legitimate businesses as well as criminal enterprises. Observed behavioral patterns in this case challenge traditional notions of the internal dynamics of temporary groups engaged in nuclear smuggling and operational realities of such activities. The article seeks to explain why individuals agree (and continue) to operate in this high-risk environment, unbound by close personal ties, without any effort to verify the background, motives, or qualifications of the fellow conspirators. It offers ways to advance current nonproliferation efforts in non-state actor interdiction by exploiting the environment of shallow trust in temporary groups.     

Reflections on Transparency and Monitoring under the 1993 United States-Russian Federation Highly Enriched Uranium Purchase Agreement

ABSTRACT

The 1993 Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) Purchase Agreement between the United States and Russian Federation is often described as one of the world's most successful nuclear nonproliferation programs. In 2013, the two states achieved the agreement's major goals of downblending 500 metric tons of Russian weapon-origin HEU to low enriched uranium (LEU) and delivering all resultant LEU to the United States. At one time, the LEU delivered under the agreement generated nearly 10 percent of all electricity in the United States. The agreement achieved its nonproliferation goals through a unique government/industry partnership. Commercial executive agents contracted for the annual sale and delivery of downblended LEU, while the US and Russian governments exercised reciprocal transparency monitoring measures to demonstrate that all LEU delivered under the agreement was derived from Russian weapons-origin HEU, and that the same LEU was used for exclusively peaceful purposes in the United States. The commercial development, negotiations, and implementation of the agreement have been well documented. This article describes the scope of US transparency monitoring activities in Russian HEU processing facilities, as well as Russian monitoring in the United States. In addition, it discusses the results of twenty years of reciprocal transparency monitoring and data analysis, and outlines lessons learned that are potentially applicable to future transparency monitoring and verification regimes and similar cooperative efforts.