A trajectory for homeland ballistic missile defense

The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is intended to protect the US homeland against limited attacks from intermediate- and long-range ballistic missiles. It has succeeded in intercepting target missiles and can engage a threat launched from North Korea or the Middle East, targeting any point in the USA. Nevertheless, high-profile struggles and program changes related to homeland ballistic missile defense (BMD) continue to make headlines. The most significant struggle has been a string of three straight intercept test failures over five years, followed by the recent successful intercept test in June 2014. This article first briefly reviews the current threats of concern. It then examines homeland BMD policy objectives, followed by the current major technical issues in supporting these objectives and, then, the likelihood of negating a warhead. Finally, it highlights major considerations that should be part of the trajectory the US government takes moving forward.     

一种结合弹道规律的模糊交互式多模型算法

针对交互式多模型算法中转移概率矩阵与实际运动不匹配而影响跟踪精度的问题,通过分析某型导弹的典型弹道,将弹道规律融合到模型概率转移矩阵中,然后将转移概率模糊化处理,提出了一种基于弹道规律的模糊交互式多模型算法,然后以导弹蛇形运动转至比例导引的机动过程为例进行了仿真验证,比较了典型交互式多模型算法和模糊交互式多模型算法的跟踪性能。仿真结果表明:该算法可显著提高导弹机动段的跟踪精度。     

反潜机采用阿基米德螺旋线搜潜问题研究

反潜机是重要的反潜力量,根据反潜机搜潜情况,建立了反潜飞机采用阿基米德螺旋线样式搜潜的数学模型和目标运动模型,讨论了螺旋线采用的三种轨迹间隔,通过仿真验证,确立了反潜机搜潜最优轨迹间隔,以达到提高发现目标潜艇概率、优化反潜效能的目的,为反潜飞机采用阿基米德巡逻线搜潜样式搜潜时提供战术参考。     

基于改进IMM-UKF的弹道导弹再入段跟踪数据滤波?

针对弹道系数未知的弹道导弹再入段跟踪雷达测量数据滤波这类非线性强的滤波问题,提出可变多模型无迹卡尔曼滤波算法。利用无迹卡尔曼滤波逼近精度高,计算量小,适应于任意非线性模型的特点,将其作为多模型的基本滤波器;滤波算法根据各模型正确描述目标状态的概率,动态地改变多模型数量和模型参数。上述方法的综合运用,提高对目标状态估计精度,降低了计算的复杂度,仿真实验验证了方法的有效性。     

卫星导航接收机捕获和跟踪抗干扰能力分析

卫星导航抗干扰技术是接收机研制中的热点问题,不同的干扰模式对接收机的影响各不相同。通过建立非相干高斯白噪声、单频干扰和扫频干扰等3种常见干扰模型,分析了干扰对码分多址卫星导航接收机常用的并行码相位捕获和科斯塔斯环路跟踪阶段的影响,获得了其在2个阶段的抗干扰能力。研究表明,不同频率变换方式的单频干扰对接收机环路的影响区别不大,而与干扰频点接近信号中心频点的长短密切相关,同时接收机对非相关高斯白噪声干扰的抗击能力要远大于单频干扰。研究结论对码分多址卫星导航接收机和干扰机的设计具有一定的参考意义。     

战术导弹对机场跑道多波次打击时的瞄准点选择方法

为了解决使用战术导弹对机场跑道实施多波次打击时的瞄准点选择问题,在考虑具有先前毁伤效果的累积效应基础上,按照优先打击最小起降窗口、使最小维修窗口中维修工作量最大的思路,设计了一种瞄准点选择方法,可为相应的导弹作战运用提供参考。所附算例说明了文中方法的可行性。     

利用时间窗权重进行航迹关联

提出一种利用传感器测量数据的时间窗权重进行航迹关联的方法,将目标运动状态的多维向量(如距离、方位角、俯仰角等)分解为多个一维状态标量;根据每个状态标量与时间的关系,提取两条航迹的共同测量时间区间,将其划分为若干个时间窗,计算对应时间窗内的权重;根据时间窗权重差计算每一个状态标量的航迹相似度;应用DS理论或Bayes理论进行航迹关联决策。     

ADVANCED US CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

The Obama administration has made a great effort to increase the role of advanced conventional weaponry in US national security thinking and practice, in part to help reinvigorate the global nuclear disarmament agenda by reducing the role played by nuclear weapons in the US defense posture. However, such a strategy is fundamentally flawed because increases in US conventional superiority will exacerbate US relative strength vis-à-vis other powers, and therefore make the prospect of a nuclear weapon-free world seem less attractive to Washington's current and potential nuclear rivals. Consequently, it is highly likely that the impact of efforts to increase US advanced conventional superiority through ballistic missile defense and a conventional “prompt global strike” program will ensure that the Obama administration is adopting a pathway to nuclear abolition on which it is the sole traveler for the foreseeable future.     

UNDER THE RADAR?

Missile Contagion: Cruise Missile Proliferation and the Threat to International Security, by Dennis M. Gormley. Praeger Security International, 2008. 272 pages, $54.95.     

复杂环境下多雷达点迹融合

针对系统误差、杂波干扰等对点迹融合处理系统的影响,结合工程实践,提出了一种处理复杂环境下多雷达点迹融合结构框架,给出了存在系统误差情形下的多雷达航迹起始、虚假目标抑制、雷达误差配准等模型和算法。仿真结果表明,提出的框架、模型和算法能够有效处理多雷达点迹融合问题。