BP组合预测方法在维修保障费用预测中的应用

通过对时间序列预测方法和回归分析原理的分析,建立了适用于武器装备维修保障费用的BP网络组合预测的时间序列多输出模型,并结合某型装备多年的维修保障费用,进行了预测数据仿真,得出的结果与实际的数据相比误差较小,具有较大的理论价值和实际的军事价值,有利于提高维修保障费用的效益,有利于实现装备的优良效费比。     

网络中心战中舰艇编队的作战效能分析

在网络中心战条件下,舰艇编队通过互通、互联和互操作,可在编队范围内共享资源,进行跨平台的通道组织和实现武器共用,这种跨平台的资源共享充分发挥了作战资源的利用率,增强了编队作战系统的生命力。建立了在网络中心战条件下的舰艇编队作战效能计算数模,并进行了分析和计算,解释了在网络支持下编队作战效能提升的原理,分析和计算方法可用于网络兵力的兵力指数计算和作战效能评估。     

仿真网格原型系统的设计与实现

进行仿真网格原型系统的研究是解决仿真网格关键技术的基础。SGE网格引擎是一个构建本地和集群级网格的工具,通过SGE构建基本的网格平台,根据HLA仿真任务的特点,对分布式仿真网格的原型系统进行了研究和设计。提出了仿真网格的双通道通信机制:一个通道负责仿真网格组件的通信,另一个通道负责HLA仿真任务之间的通信。提出了仿真任务在仿真网格中的三种调度模式:以进程为单位的调度、以联邦成员为单位的调度、以联邦为单位的调度等。通过研究初步实现了仿真网格的原型系统,并对HLA仿真任务的三种调度模式进行了简单的测试。     

数据基故障诊断算法更新问题研究

机内测试被广泛应用于故障诊断、装备健康管理与预测等领域。针对机内测试设备在设计和升级时遇到的分类器更新、样本数量不平衡、硬件条件限制问题,提出初步解决方案。利用基于密度的聚类和人工免疫方法处理原始数据;提出基于代表样本点的混合学习方法;利用支持向量机和仿真案例验证所提方法。结果表明所提方法能够解决上述问题,有助于基于数据的机内测试设备设计与升级。     

Block replacement policies for a two‐component system with failure dependence

Block replacement and modified block replacement policies for two‐component systems with failure dependence and economic dependence are considered in this paper. Opportunistic maintenance policies are also considered. Where tractable, long‐run costs per unit time are calculated using renewal theory based arguments; otherwise simulation studies are carried out. The management implications for the adoption of the various policies are discussed. The usefulness of the results in the paper is illustrated through application to a particular two‐component system. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

基于虚拟样机的导弹维修训练仿真系统

以虚拟样机技术为基础 ,提出了装备虚拟维修训练系统建设总体方案 ,主要用于解决目前武器装备维修训练采用实物、实兵、实地训练 ,日常训练成本高、危险性大、训练效率与训练效果有待提高的问题。采用虚拟样机技术开发的装备维修仿真训练系统是解决目前武器装备维修训练突出问题的有效途径。该系统的实现 ,对于解决目前存在的复杂装备维修训练问题有重要意义     

基于Pareto排序法的战时装备维修任务多目标调度方法

针对战时武器装备维修保障问题,建立了包括最大完工时间、延迟时间和维修单元负荷在内的多目标优化调度模型。为提高解的多样性和收敛性,构建了一种基于Pareto排序法和小生境技术相结合的遗传算法用于模型求解,引入Pareto排序和拥挤距离进行适应度计算,通过混沌系统随机生成权重系数,并使用小生境技术改进选择方式。通过实例验证表明,该方法能够有效地解决装备维修多目标调度问题。     

Optimizing usage and maintenance decisions for k‐out‐of‐n systems of moving assets

We consider an integrated usage and maintenance optimization problem for a k‐out‐of‐n system pertaining to a moving asset. The k‐out‐of‐n systems are commonly utilized in practice to increase availability, where n denotes the total number of parallel and identical units and k the number of units required to be active for a functional system. Moving assets such as aircraft, ships, and submarines are subject to different operating modes. Operating modes can dictate not only the number of system units that are needed to be active, but also where the moving asset physically is, and under which environmental conditions it operates. We use the intrinsic age concept to model the degradation process. The intrinsic age is analogous to an intrinsic clock which ticks on a different pace in different operating modes. In our problem setting, the number of active units, degradation rates of active and standby units, maintenance costs, and type of economic dependencies are functions of operating modes. In each operating mode, the decision maker should decide on the set of units to activate (usage decision) and the set of units to maintain (maintenance decision). Since the degradation rate differs for active and standby units, the units to be maintained depend on the units that have been activated, and vice versa. In order to minimize maintenance costs, usage and maintenance decisions should be jointly optimized. We formulate this problem as a Markov decision process and provide some structural properties of the optimal policy. Moreover, we assess the performance of usage policies that are commonly implemented for maritime systems. We show that the cost increase resulting from these policies is up to 27% for realistic settings. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the cases in which joint usage and maintenance optimization is more valuable. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 418–434, 2017     

基于灰色局势决策的通用维修资源整合方法

维修资源是装备保障系统的重要组成部分,针对部队装备维修资源品种越来越多、保障负担越来越重的问题,分析了通用维修资源的优点,提出了一种基于灰色局势决策理论的通用维修资源整合方法,并给出了具体实施步骤,主要包括构建决策目标体系、制定决策流程、计算综合测度和选择决策等,最后还进行了详细的案例研究.为维修资源的有效整合提供了决策依据和科学方法,对于减少维修资源种类、提高装备保障效率具有一定的指导作用和应用价值.     

一种新的批处理常模算法

详细分析了传统批处理常模算法的缺点,提出了一种新的批处理常数模算法——基于共轭梯度方向的批处理常模算法(CG-BPCMA).仿真结果表明,与最陡下降批处理常模算法(SD-BPCMA)和牛顿方向批处理常模算法(NT-BPCMA)相比,提出的新算法有效地克服了SD-BPCMA和NT-BPCMA的缺点,不仅获得了较低的算法复杂度,而且能快速收敛到常模代价函数的最小值点.