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The article develops a theorem which shows that the Lanchester linear war equations are not in general equal to the Kolmogorov linear war equations. The latter are time‐consuming to solve, and speed is important when a large number of simulations must be run to examine a large parameter space. Run times are provided, where time is a scarce factor in warfare. Four time efficient approximations are presented in the form of ordinary differential equations for the expected sizes and variances of each group, and the covariance, accounting for reinforcement and withdrawal of forces. The approximations are compared with “exact” Monte Carlo simulations and empirics from the WWII Ardennes campaign. The band spanned out by plus versus minus the incremented standard deviations captures some of the scatter in the empirics, but not all. With stochastically varying combat effectiveness coefficients, a substantial part of the scatter in the empirics is contained. The model is used to forecast possible futures. The implications of increasing the combat effectiveness coefficient governing the size of the Allied force, and injecting reinforcement to the German force during the Campaign, are evaluated, with variance assessments. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005. 相似文献
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武器装备战斗损伤研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以“通用武器雷达装备战损规律研究”成果为基础,系统阐述了开展武器装备战斗损伤研究的方法体系,介绍了战斗损伤建模与仿真、装备战斗损伤机理研究、装备战斗损伤分析、战斗损伤试验的相关技术和方法。 相似文献
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基于贝叶斯网络的装备损伤定位系统研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
分析了贝叶斯网络在装备损伤定位方面的优势,及其损伤定位的方法与流程,建立了用于装备损伤定位的贝叶斯网络模型,并开发了损伤定位系统。以某型火炮为例,演示了其损伤定位的一般过程,验证了贝叶斯网络在装备损伤定位中应用的可行性与有效性。 相似文献
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In modern warfare, many believe the decisive factor in winning a battle is seizing the right moment to shift from defense to attack, or vice versa. This paper attempts to bring that perspective to Lanchester's differential equations of warfare, and continues the application of Lanchester's linear law to the analysis of the World War II battle of Ardennes, as reported in earlier issues of Naval Research Logistics by Bracken and by Fricker. A new variable, shift time, accounting for the timing of the shift between defense and attack is explicitly included in our version of the model, and it helps obtain improved goodness of fit to historical data. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:653–661, 2001 相似文献
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舆论战作为信息时代一种独立而重要的作战样式,是一种渗透力、攻击力、威慑力很强的特殊武器,是海上维权斗争行动的重要组成部分.文章对开展海上雏权斗争舆论战的紧迫性进行了分析,归纳总结了海上维权斗争舆论战的特点,探索了开展海上维权斗争舆论战的对策. 相似文献
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