基于对策论的威胁评估模型

数据融合模型一般包括多个层次,威胁评估是其中之一。威胁评估根据态势情况,推测威胁程度及可能的行动方案。在分析对策论和威胁评估的基础上,提出基于矩阵对策的威胁评估模型及分析方法。     

To catch an intruder: Part A—uncluttered scenario

We analyze an interdiction scenario where an interceptor attempts to catch an intruder as the intruder moves through the area of interest. A motivating example is the detection and interdiction of drug smuggling vessels in the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean. We study two models in this article. The first considers a nonstrategic target that moves through the area without taking evasive action to avoid the interdictor. We determine the optimal location the interceptor should position itself to best respond when a target arrives. The second model analyzes the strategic interaction between the interceptor and intruder using a Blotto approach. The intruder chooses a route to travel on and the interceptor chooses a route to patrol. We model the interaction as a two‐player game with a bilinear payoff function. We compute the optimal strategy for both players and examine several extensions. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 64: 29–40, 2017     

Teaching Professional Ethos

This article investigates the communication of professional ethos, the ethical standards of a profession in training, from passing on ideas of patients’ welfare in medical schools to communicating values in military academies. The article examines this through a consideration of the consequences of Wittgenstein’s discussions on the nature of language: how words and sentences acquire meaning. Wittgenstein’s rule-following paradox, the paradox that any act can be brought into correspondence with a rule and thereby that any “meaning” might be applicable to what is being taught, must make us re-evaluate assumptions about a professional ethos as a guide for professionals in their future practice. If, as Wittgenstein asserts, the meaning of a word is its use, we must abandon ideas of an essence of professional ethos encapsulated in words. Ethical standards of the professions are not reducible to a set of rules. Instead teachers must seek to expand the learner’s repertoire of responses and invite different answers rather than a pre-established correct answer.     

A sequential attribute sampling inspection game for item facilities

The routine inspection of facilities storing large numbers of identical items is modeled as a two‐person, sequential game. Timely detection of illegal activity is parameterized in terms of a critical time to detection, and equilibria are derived which provide inspection strategies. Necessary conditions for deterrence of illegal behavior are discussed. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 496–505, 2001     

基于对策论的C4ISR系统作战效能评估方法

C4ISR系统在现代战争中的重要作用使得其评价问题得到了前所未有的重视.但C4ISR系统的复杂性使得大多研究仅限于其自身效能,而对使用效能特别是作战效能的评估则关注较少.通过对C4ISR系统效能评估的分析和研究,提出了一种基于对策论的C4ISR系统作战效能评估方法,利用矩阵对策构建不同作战策略的效能评估模型,实现了对抗环境中C4ISR系统作战效能的动态评估,并给出了模型的分析与求解方法.     

单一来源装备采办下定价策略的博弈分析

单一来源装备采办下,由于供应商在装备的定价与装备的升级改造上都存在 相对的比较优势,军方引入渐进式采办来改变自身的不利地位 应用博弈论的观点来对单 一来源装备采办下军方与供应商定价问题进行比较,实现了对单一来源装备采办与竞争策 略下各自收益分析,并用不定次重复博弈对渐进式采办进行了定量分析,对在实际采办过程 中如何实现激励合同和防止腐败问题也进行了理论上的论述。     

A search game with a protector

A classic problem in Search Theory is one in which a searcher allocates resources to the points of the integer interval [1, n] in an attempt to find an object which has been hidden in them using a known probability function. In this paper we consider a modification of this problem in which there is a protector who can also allocate resources to the points; allocating these resources makes it more difficult for the searcher to find an object. We model the situation as a two‐person non‐zero‐sum game so that we can take into account the fact that using resources can be costly. It is shown that this game has a unique Nash equilibrium when the searcher's probability of finding an object located at point i is of the form (1 − exp (−λ_ix_i)) exp (−μ_iy_i) when the searcher and protector allocate resources x_i and y_i respectively to point i. An algorithm to find this Nash equilibrium is given. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47:85–96, 2000     

两人多冲突环境下的双矩阵对策集结模型

针对用多个双矩阵对策来描述的两人多冲突环境,首先基于局中人所受到的约束条件,构造局中人面向多冲突环境的可行策略串集合;其次以所有局中人的可行策略串集合建立新的结局空间,构造局中人在新结局空间上的支付函数,进而建立两人多冲突环境下的对策综合集结模型;最后给出了一个军事例子,该算例说明了模型的实用性.     

装备采办中一级密封招标的博弈均衡分析

针对装备采办中的一级密封招标问题,分析了招标过程中的博弈特点,给出了一维贝叶斯均衡的求解方法和解析表达式,论证了在军工企业的最优战略是选择博弈的贝叶斯均衡,军方的选择是增加竞标者的人数。然后,重点分析了招标过程中的多维博弈问题,给出了多维贝叶斯均衡的一般求解方法,并针对特定的事例进行了多维均衡分析。最后,在多维博弈的框架下对一维博弈和多维博弈的均衡结果进行比较分析,结果表明：在一级密封招标过程中,多维博弈均衡是军工企业的最优战略。     

基于贝叶斯网络的潜艇攻击决策研究

BN(贝叶斯网)被认为是人工智能研究中不确定性知识表示和推理的重要工具,广泛应用到复杂系统的建模等领域。贝叶斯网络高效的推理算法非常适合解决不确定性军事决策问题,分析了潜艇攻击决策问题的复杂性和不确定性,提出了构建贝叶斯网络进行攻击决策的步骤,通过具体实例,对用贝叶斯网络推理解决潜艇攻击决策问题进行了初步探讨。