海军兵棋演习系统研究

兵棋演习系统是我军未来开展模拟训练的重要手段,针对国内外对兵棋推演系统现状及技术发展趋势进行研究,提出海军兵棋演习系统的发展方向和设计方法,并结合海军兵棋推演的研究内容重点,给出作战规则建模、指挥关系建模等主要关键技术的解决方法,为我国海军未来兵棋推演系统设计、研究和发展提供技术支撑。     

Validation of a strategy for harbor defense based on the use of a min‐max algorithm receding horizon control law

We present a validation of a centralized feedback control law for robotic or partially robotic water craft whose task is to defend a harbor from an intruding fleet of water craft. Our work was motivated by the need to provide harbor defenses against hostile, possibly suicidal intruders, preferably using unmanned craft to limit potential casualties. Our feedback control law is a sample‐data receding horizon control law, which requires the solution of a complex max‐min problem at the start of each sample time. In developing this control law, we had to deal with three challenges. The first was to develop a max‐min problem that captures realistically the nature of the defense‐intrusion game. The second was to ensure the solution of this max‐min problem can be accomplished in a small fraction of the sample time that would be needed to control a possibly fast moving craft. The third, to which this article is dedicated, was to validate the effectiveness of our control law first through computer simulations pitting a computer against a computer or a computer against a human, then through the use of model hovercraft in a laboratory, and finally on the Chesapeake Bay, using Yard Patrol boats. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 247–259, 2016     

‘Look like the innocent flower,but be the serpent under’t’: mimicking behaviour of growth-oriented terrorist organizations

This paper examines the interaction between a growth-oriented terrorist organization and an uninformed government based on a two-period signalling game. Combining the signalling game and organizational growth approaches of previous contributions, this paper shows that, if a terrorist group follows a growth strategy, it has an incentive to appear weaker than it is by mimicking the behaviour of a smaller organization. Depending on its beliefs about the extent of the terrorist threat, it can be optimal for a government to spend more on second-period counter-terrorism measures if it is not attacked in the first period than if it were attacked.     

航天器交会型轨道追逃策略的滚动时域优化

针对航天器自由时域交会型轨道追逃过程中的测量误差等不确定性对交会的影响,提出了一种基于滚动时域优化的高时效策略求解方法。根据微分对策理论推导得到博弈鞍点控制策略,并对问题进行等价转换;通过预先离线求解开环鞍点策略,将问题初始状态和相应的解作为样本以进行神经网络训练,训练后的网络结构可以快速得到相应问题的近似解。为了更好地应对博弈环境中的测量噪声,基于神经网络结构设计了滚动时域求解框架,并通过周期性的滚动求解最终实现对逃逸航天器的交会。数值仿真表明,所提出的策略可以有效应对测量噪声不确定性,且相比于文献中已有的策略,计算耗时可从分钟级降至秒级。     

Decentralized admission control of a queueing system: A game‐theoretic model

Consider a distributed system where many gatekeepers share a single server. Customers arrive at each gatekeeper according to independent Poisson processes with different rates. Upon arrival of a new customer, the gatekeeper has to decide whether to admit the customer by sending it to the server, or to block it. Blocking costs nothing. The gatekeeper receives a reward after a customer completes the service, and incurs a cost if an admitted customer finds a busy server and therefore has to leave the system. Assuming an exponential service distribution, we formulate the problem as an n‐person non‐zero‐sum game in which each gatekeeper is interested in maximizing its own long‐run average reward. The key result is that each gatekeeper's optimal policy is that of a threshold type regardless what other gatekeepers do. We then derive Nash equilibria and discuss interesting insights. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 702–718, 2003.     

基于Bayes方法的射击密集度评估

以某远程武器射击密集度鉴定问题为对象,研究了运用Bayes 理论从仿真试验数据中提取有用信息,从而实现在少量试验样本情况下有效完成射击密集度试验鉴定任务的方法.将最大熵法应用于射击密集度估计,介绍了运用自助(Bootstrap)法从仿真试验结果中获取验前信息的基本思想和一般方法,以及在获得验前信息后结合现场试验样本进行射击密集度鉴定的方法.