Predicting intensive care unit bed occupancy for integrated operating room scheduling via neural networks

In a master surgery scheduling (MSS) problem, a hospital's operating room (OR) capacity is assigned to different medical specialties. This task is critical since the risk of assigning too much or too little OR time to a specialty is associated with overtime or deficit hours of the staff, deferral or delay of surgeries, and unsatisfied—or even endangered—patients. Most MSS approaches in the literature focus only on the OR while neglecting the impact on downstream units or reflect a simplified version of the real‐world situation. We present the first prediction model for the integrated OR scheduling problem based on machine learning. Our three‐step approach focuses on the intensive care unit (ICU) and reflects elective and urgent patients, inpatients and outpatients, and all possible paths through the hospital. We provide an empirical evaluation of our method with surgery data for Universitätsklinikum Augsburg, a German tertiary care hospital with 1700 beds. We show that our model outperforms a state‐of‐the‐art model by 43% in number of predicted beds. Our model can be used as supporting tool for hospital managers or incorporated in an optimization model. Eventually, we provide guidance to support hospital managers in scheduling surgeries more efficiently.     

基于改进核极限学习机和集成学习理论的目标机动轨迹预测

为了提高目标轨迹预测的精度以及预测模型的泛化能力,提出基于改进蝙蝠算法优化的核极限学习机(Kernel Extreme Learning Machine,KELM)和集成学习理论目标机动轨迹预测模型。构建KELM模型,并采用改进的蝙蝠算法对KELM的参数进行优化;以优化后的KELM神经网络为弱预测器,结合集成学习算法生成强预测器,通过训练不断优化强预测的结构和参数,得到一种基于集成学习理论的目标机动轨迹预测模型;基于不同规模的样本,将所得预测模型与逆传播神经网络、支持向量机和极限学习机等模型进行对比分析。仿真结果表明:所提目标机动轨迹预测模型具有较好的预测精度和泛化能力。     

学员英语学习动机激发之管见

学习动机是直接推动学生进行学习的一种内在动力。学习者的动机和态度作为非智力因素对于英语学习起着相当大的作用,在对军校学员英语学习动机深入了解的基础上,提出了激发学员英语学习动机的具体对策。     

多元先验信息的融合问题

在多元先验信息条件下,运用Bayes理论讨论问题时,必然会遇到先验信息融合问题.文中提出了几种简化形式,并针对产品失效率的多个先验信息情形,结合实例与熵度量的拟合优度说明了该方法的合理性.     

一种改进的BP算法

ＢＰ算法是目前应用极为广泛的神经网络算法,但它也存在一些不足。文中提出了采用共轭梯度法及黄金分割相结合的改进ＢＰ算法（ＭＢＰ）,自适应调整学习率,提高了运算速度,减少了迭代次数。最后将标准ＢＰ算法和ＭＢＰ算法进行了比较,仿其结果表明：ＭＢＰ算法的学习次数和收敛速度得到极大改善。     

Allocation of quality improvement targets based on investments in learning

Purchased materials often account for more than 50% of a manufacturer's product nonconformance cost. A common strategy for reducing such costs is to allocate periodic quality improvement targets to suppliers of such materials. Improvement target allocations are often accomplished via ad hoc methods such as prescribing a fixed, across‐the‐board percentage improvement for all suppliers, which, however, may not be the most effective or efficient approach for allocating improvement targets. We propose a formal modeling and optimization approach for assessing quality improvement targets for suppliers, based on process variance reduction. In our models, a manufacturer has multiple product performance measures that are linear functions of a common set of design variables (factors), each of which is an output from an independent supplier's process. We assume that a manufacturer's quality improvement is a result of reductions in supplier process variances, obtained through learning and experience, which require appropriate investments by both the manufacturer and suppliers. Three learning investment (cost) models for achieving a given learning rate are used to determine the allocations that minimize expected costs for both the supplier and manufacturer and to assess the sensitivity of investment in learning on the allocation of quality improvement targets. Solutions for determining optimal learning rates, and concomitant quality improvement targets are derived for each learning investment function. We also account for the risk that a supplier may not achieve a targeted learning rate for quality improvements. An extensive computational study is conducted to investigate the differences between optimal variance allocations and a fixed percentage allocation. These differences are examined with respect to (i) variance improvement targets and (ii) total expected cost. For certain types of learning investment models, the results suggest that orders of magnitude differences in variance allocations and expected total costs occur between optimal allocations and those arrived at via the commonly used rule of fixed percentage allocations. However, for learning investments characterized by a quadratic function, there is surprisingly close agreement with an “across‐the‐board” allocation of 20% quality improvement targets. © John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 684–709, 2001     

模型不可知的联合相互学习

主流的联邦学习(federated learning, FL)方法需要梯度的交互和数据同分布的理想假定,这就带来了额外的通信开销、隐私泄露和数据低效性的问题。因此,提出了一种新的FL框架,称为模型不可知的联合相互学习 (model agnostic federated mutual learning, MAFML)。MAFML仅利用少量低维的信息(例如,图像分类任务中神经网络输出的软标签)共享实现跨机构间的“互学互教”,且MAFML不需要共享一个全局模型,机构用户可以自定制私有模型。同时,MAFML使用简洁的梯度冲突避免方法使每个参与者在不降低自身域数据性能的前提下,能够很好地泛化到其他域的数据。在多个跨域数据集上的实验表明,MAFML可以为面临“竞争与合作”困境的联盟企业提供一种有前景的解决方法。     

军校大学生英语学习观念与策略分析

国内外学者提出了许多关于英语学习策略的理论,并进行了大量的实证研究,但有关军队院校大学生英语学习策略的研究尚未涉猎。了解军队院校非英语专业大学生英语学习的观念和所采用的主要策略,掌握学生各种英语学习观念和采用的学习策略之间的关系。可为军校英语教学提供研究方向。     

军校战士学员厌学现象思考

学风是学生群体在学习活动中表现出来的精神风貌,包括正确的学习目的、严谨的治学态度、求实创新的精神、浓厚的学习氛围和浓郁的文化环境。战士学员厌学现象,妨碍院校教育终极目标的实现,必须引起高度关注。     

内隐学习的特征及对其本土教育的启示

内隐学习就是无意识获得刺激环境中复杂知识的过程。在无意识研究热潮中,内隐学习研究获得了很大的发展。内隐学习的研究对于理解人类认识过程的本质,特别是对于探明人们获得丰富复杂知识的心理机制提供了全新的视野。本文着重探讨内隐学习的特征以及对本土教育的启示。