Economic impact of the ministry of defence’s budget: methodological design and results for the Spanish economy

This article analyses the economic impact of the expenditure budget of the Spanish Ministry of Defence (MoD) and its Autonomous Agencies (AA), distinguishing direct, indirect and induced effects. The input–output methodology is used to find intersectoral effects on the rest of the economy. The article quantifies the economic impact in terms of production, gross value added (GVA), employed population, tax revenue, and also in terms of its contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) of Spain in 2010. The results show that the activity of the MoD and AA generates 1.2% of the country’s GDP and 1.7% of total employment in that year.     

A Bayesian analysis on the effect of multiple supply options in a quick response environment

In the apparel industry, vendors often suffer from high mismatches in supply and demand. To cope with this problem, they procure the same style product from different suppliers with different manufacturing costs. Especially in the quick response environment, which allows vendors to monitor trends in customer demand and search for available suppliers through the electronic market, they have additional opportunities to improve their decision‐making. In this paper, we propose an analytical profit maximization model and develop efficient decision tools to help both the middle and lower level managers pursuing this strategy. Furthermore, we have shown how significantly the vendors' potential competitive edge can be improved by exploiting multiple supply options, even at the expense of high premium procurement costs for late orders. The effect is critical, especially in a highly competitive market, and it has important implications for the top managers. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

复杂大系统仿真的VV&A理论及过程研究

为了确保复杂大系统仿真(LCSS)的可信性,应该在建模与仿真(M&S)的全生命周期中开展校核、验证与确认(VV&A)研究.对LCSS的VV&A进行了理论研究,提出其方法论与原则;以基于仿真组件构建的HLA仿真系统为例,从仿真组件层、联邦成员层及联邦层三个层面研究了VV&A过程,并将这些研究应用于反舰导弹突防联邦仿真中.实践表明,研究对LCSS的VV&A工作具有很好的指导作用,有力地保障了仿真的可信性.     

基于仿真结果的舰载武备系统试验鉴定方法研究

由于舰载武备系统现场实验效率低、实现困难等现状,提出了仿真结果用于试验鉴定的基本思想。用数学、统计语言对小子样场合下武器装备系统的试验鉴定问题进行了描述,将其"映射"成Bayes统计推断问题,得到了其Bayes统计推断数学仿真模型。经实例分析研究,与传统方法相比较,该方法提高了舰载武备系统试验鉴定水平,缩短了试验周期,有效保障了武器装备系统的作战使用。     

浅谈《线性代数》课程的教学方法

总结了线性代数的教学方法,阐述了培养学生实际应用能力的重要性。     

多元先验信息的融合问题

在多元先验信息条件下,运用Bayes理论讨论问题时,必然会遇到先验信息融合问题.文中提出了几种简化形式,并针对产品失效率的多个先验信息情形,结合实例与熵度量的拟合优度说明了该方法的合理性.     

Nuclear security culture enhancement: the role of culture coordinators at Russian nuclear sites

In 2002, a Nuclear Security Culture (NSC) Enhancement Program with the mission to raise the level of the NSC at sites and facilities in Russia's nuclear complex was launched under the guidance of the Russian State Corporation “ROSATOM” and with support from the US Department of Energy. A Joint Working Group for NSC with both Russian Federation and US members was formed and charged with the design and implementation of the program. The program was implemented at sites and facilities on a pilot basis. Nine sites participated in the Pilot Project. The key program component was an establishment of Culture Coordinators (CCs) with the authority to coordinate and implement NSC enhancement activities at sites and facilities. The CCs have served as the force that has maintained the momentum of the Pilot Project and continuously steered the site NSC enhancement efforts. The contribution of the CCs in achieving the positive outcomes of the program cannot be overstated.     

全面深化改革要把握好“胆子要大与步子要稳”的辩证关系

“胆子要大与步子要稳”,是习总书记论述全面深化改革要处理好的五对重要关系的其中一个。胆子要大,步子要稳,是过去改革开放实践的成功经验,是当前全面深化改革的科学指南,也是深化国防和军队改革的原则要求。推进全面深化改革,必须把握好“胆子要大与步子要稳”的辩证关系。     

基于图熵法的战场抢救抢修方案复杂性量化模型

从战场抢救抢修注重时效的特点出发,提出了战场抢救抢修作业复杂性概念,分析了影响抢救抢修作业复杂性的因素．引入软件工程领域的图熵模型,从微观方面研究战场抢救抢修方案实施过程中的复杂性问题．将抢救抢修方案划分为3个层次,利用petri网对操作过程进行建模,并从中提取信息结构图和动作结构图．以作业的量化为基础,给出了方案的综合量化方法．实例证明该方法可以很好的反映抢救抢修方案的可操作性．     

基于事故树和贝叶斯的军民航飞行冲突风险研究

为充分了解当前军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候的成因,并对其发生原因进行有重点的预防和对事件发生概率的精确预测,首先建立事故树模型,对其原因进行分析;总结导致其发生的基本事件,计算事故树模型的最小割集和各个基本事件的结构重要度;其次对军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候的发生概率进行合理的取值,得出基本事件的概率重要度,指出基本事件发生概率对顶事件发生概率的影响;最后构建军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候贝叶斯网络模型,计算中间事件的条件概率和顶事件发生概率,并与实际结果进行对比,验证方法可行性。