风险偏好的区间值灰色模糊综合评判及其应用

由于被评判对象有时会带有某些不确定性以及信息量的多少及充分程度不同,使得这些对象在某些评判指标上属于某个评语的程度-隶属度及其对应的灰度不再是一个确定的数,常常是一个范围,针对此特点,尝试用区间值来表示灰度.引入一种反映风险偏好的风险指标,以此对评判结果灰度进行处理,定义了信息充分程度转化公式,利用其将评判结果转化为区间值集合,在此基础上建立了风险偏好的区间值灰色模糊综合评判的数学模型,并给出了它在方案优选中的应用.实例结果表明,这种方法是合理的、可行的、有效的.     

On the effectiveness of top‐down strategy for forecasting autoregressive demands

We investigate the relative effectiveness of top‐down versus bottom‐up strategies for forecasting the demand of an item that belongs to a product family. The demand for each item in the family is assumed to follow a first‐order univariate autoregressive process. Under the top‐down strategy, the aggregate demand is forecasted by using the historical data of the family demand. The demand forecast for the items is then derived by proportional allocation of the aggregate forecast. Under the bottom‐up strategy, the demand forecast for each item is directly obtained by using the historical demand data of the particular item. In both strategies, the forecasting technique used is exponential smoothing. We analytically evaluate the condition under which one forecasting strategy is preferred over the other when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand time series for all the items is identical. We show that when the lag‐1 autocorrelation is smaller than or equal to 1/3, the maximum difference in the performance of the two forecasting strategies is only 1%. However, if the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand for at least one of the items is greater than 1/3, then the bottom‐up strategy consistently outperforms the top‐down strategy, irrespective of the items' proportion in the family and the coefficient of correlation between the item demands. A simulation study reveals that the analytical findings hold even when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand processes is not identical. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

点邻域尺度差异描述的点云配准算法

针对传统特征描述符计算复杂度高、配准精度低的问题,提出一种基于不同尺度点邻域特征信息差异的点云配准算法.在特征描述符方面,对关键点选取不同尺度的邻域空间,计算各尺度空间之间的特征值归一化向量差异和法向量夹角,建立点邻域尺度差异描述符,特征描述符计算简单且节省时间.在关键点选取方面,根据曲面形状指数设计了一种寻找关键点的...     

程控交换机硬件系统建模研究

底层功能实现模块是程控交换机多媒体仿真训练系统通用设计平台的关键部分。硬件配置是交换机工作的基础 ,是底层功能实现模块的重要组成部分。该文介绍了交换机硬件系统的建模 ,利用两种典型机型硬件实际的工作情况 ,解释并验证了所建立的通用功能流程图 ,并介绍了参数接口的管理与应用