证据推理方法中不完备信息影响因素分析

不确定条件下的不完备信息分析是多属性决策中的主要内容之一,Yang提出的证据推理方法可以较好地处理这类信息。研究了证据推理方法中不完备信息的影响因素,包括规则中的不完备信息,规则的权重以及规则的一致性,并以此为基础分析了评估结果中不完备信息的取值范围,得出了初步结论:评估结果中不完备信息的信度必然小于作为输入的规则中不完备信息中的较大者,但不一定大于其中的较小者。进一步分析了规则一致性的逻辑意义和几何意义,指出规则的一致性实际描述了规则之间的冲突程度。     

Why did Sudan Lose a small war in Southern Sudan?

ABSTRACT

When on the wrong end of an asymmetry in the projection of hard power, weaker sides countenance the grim arithmetic of avoiding direct and massed confrontations. Invariably, insurgents have over the ages tended to employ indirect tactical methods to render their stronger opponents ineffective. Ultimately – interest asymmetry, regime type, asymmetries of strategy, and external intervention – combine in a complex interplay and pattern, to militate against a strong side. In Sudan, these factors interacted throughout the civil wars to produce regional autonomy and finally an independent South Sudan in 2011. Similar strategic logic had confronted many large African states battling insurgencies in Ethiopia, Angola, Nigeria, Zaire, and apartheid-era South Africa. Oftentimes, weakening public resolve has caused these governments to accommodate, capitulate or withdraw even if they try not to blink. Notwithstanding the regime type, it can be concluded that the majority of strong actors are prone to fail in a protracted, asymmetric conflict. Hence, the notion of linking victory in counterinsurgency to the degree of openness (democratic polyarchies); or closeness (totalitarianism) – is still valid but highly contestable in the case of Africa’s large dysfunctional states.     

Colonial violence and its ‘Small Wars’: fighting the Kuki ‘guerillas’ during the Great War in Northeast India, 1917–1919

ABSTRACT

This paper concerns the lesser known British counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in Northeast frontier of India during the First World War. Officially known as the ‘Kuki Operations’, it was considered as part of the Great War. Carried out in isolation from press and public, and shelved in colonial archives, the event remained invisible until today. Yet, it registers a critical case of colonial COIN doctrine where the ‘moral effect’ doctrine was employed without being questioned. It unleashed enormous amount of organized violence, ranging from shoot at sight to indiscriminate burning of villages, wholesale destruction of property and livestock, prevention of cultivation and rebuilding of villages, forced mass displacement in jungles or in ‘concentration camps’, and collective punishment (communal penal labour and payment of compensation) after the war. This paper argues that the theory of ‘minimum force’ and the practicability of the ‘moral effect’ doctrine as applied by the Empire, sit oddly with each other at the frontier, where violence was seen both as a natural and moral orders. Violence as an ‘imperatively necessary’ method to bring order in a disorderly frontier, in the opinion of colonial state, informs and registers Northeast India as geography of violence.     

基于WSN的目标探测与分类算法

针对WSN监测系统的目标检测与分类问题,提出一种基于直觉模糊推理(IFR)的多源数据融合方法。由模糊推理的思想,设计各状态变量的属性函数。根据目标声强变化和引起的地磁场变化的模型,设计模糊推理规则,并检验了所建规则的合理性。理论分析与仿真结果的对比表明算法能准确地对目标进行分类,且运算量小,适用于计算能力较弱的WSN节点。     

临近空间拦截弹非线性控制系统性能研究

针对临近空间高超声速拦截弹执行机构非线性特性影响控制系统响应,提出基于次优控制理论及bang-bang控制理论对该问题进行研究.针对舵偏角速率饱和影响控制系统响应,通过改进正定阵P,Q来确保系统响应特性;针对舵偏角饱和影响控制系统响应,通过建立bang-bang开关曲线,分析推导出开关切换次数及最优时间表达式;最后仿真结果表明临近空间拦截弹的舵偏角饱和严重影响飞行控制系统的快速性.     

舰载主被动传感器数据关联算法

针对海战场密集目标情况下,传统方法在解决舰载主被动传感器数据关联问题中表现的不足,提出一种基于属性信息相似度检验的方法.通过分析雷达实体目标与辐射源在时间上可能出现的不同对应关系,给出相应的判决规则.仿真结果表明,新算法具有较高的关联精度和较低的漏关联概率.     

黄页服务的合同网在编队武器目标分配中的应用

海上舰艇编队协同作战面临的环境日益复杂,其武器目标分配呈现出了多智能体系统的涌现性、协同性和动态性.将编队武器目标分配问题转化成多智能体系统来研究,根据黄页概念建立了编队武器智能体的黄页服务,运用基于黄页服务的合同网协议实现了编队范围内的武器目标分布式分配.     

基于公开信息源的我国海防研究文献计量分析

采用文献计量学统计分析方法,以CNK《中国学术文献网络出版总库》为主要数据源,检索我国海防相关文献,从海防研究文献增长、文献来源、作者及机构情况、关键词词频以及学科类别与研究层次等方面进行计量分析,揭示不同历史时期海防问题的社会关注度,分析海防研究的现状、热点及趋势。     

TOT培训模式对我国警务硕士培养的几点启示

TOT培训是对培训者的培训,是欧盟开展成人教育的一种创新模式.通过浅析TOT培训模式,结合我国警务硕士培养目标和要求,从警务硕士培养理念、培养方法、管理与评估等方面提出了开展警务硕士专业学位研究生培养工作的几点思考.     

论传统军事法律文化在培育当代军人法治理念中的实践价值

中国传统军事法律文化是在数千年军事法律实践中形成的,其独特的法律品格对培育古代军人“以礼治军”的宗法理念、维护军队的统一稳定起到了重要作用。年轻军人法律信仰和服从意识的缺失是值得重视和深思的问题。因此,用优秀传统军事法律文化培育当代军人法律信仰、强化当代军人国防意识、增强当代军人自律素质,都具有十分重要的实践价值。