Bayesian inference based on partial monitoring of components with applications to preventive system maintenance

Consider a binary, monotone system of n components. The assessment of the parameter vector, θ, of the joint distribution of the lifetimes of the components and hence of the reliability of the system is often difficult due to scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. For instance, prior knowledge is often of importance and can indeed conveniently be incorporated by the Bayesian approach. It may also be important to continuously extract information from a system currently in operation. This may be useful both for decisions concerning the system in operation as well as for decisions improving the components or changing the design of similar new systems. As in Meilijson [12], life‐monitoring of some components and conditional life‐monitoring of some others is considered. In addition to data arising from this monitoring scheme, so‐called autopsy data are observed, if not censored. The probabilistic structure underlying this kind of data is described, and basic likelihood formulae are arrived at. A thorough discussion of an important aspect of this probabilistic structure, the inspection strategy, is given. Based on a version of this strategy a procedure for preventive system maintenance is developed and a detailed application to a network system presented. All the way a Bayesian approach to estimation of θ is applied. For the special case where components are conditionally independent given θ with exponentially distributed lifetimes it is shown that the weighted sum of products of generalized gamma distributions, as introduced in Gåsemyr and Natvig [7], is the conjugate prior for θ. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 551–577, 2001.     

论在建建设工程消防产品行政案件办理

对在建建设工程使用不合格消防产品的行政案件办理及存在的问题,部门联合办案存在的问题进行了探讨和分析,并提出两种方式办理在建建设工程使用不合格消防产品行政案件的建议。     

Capacity games for partially complementary products under multivariate random demands

In this study, we consider n firms, each of which produces and sells a different product. The n firms face a common demand stream which requests all their products as a complete set. In addition to the common demand stream, each firm also faces a dedicated demand stream which requires only its own product. The common and dedicated demands are uncertain and follow a general, joint, continuous distribution. Before the demands are realized, each firm needs to determine its capacity or production quantity to maximize its own expected profit. We formulate the problem as a noncooperative game. The sales price per unit for the common demand could be higher or lower than the unit price for the dedicated demand, which affects the firm's inventory rationing policy. Hence, the outcome of the game varies. All of the prices are first assumed to be exogenous. We characterize Nash equilibrium(s) of the game. At the end of the article, we also provide some results for the endogenous pricing. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 59: 146–159, 2012     

再制造研究应用现状及发展策略

以国家“发展循环经济、建设节约型社会”的重大战略为背景,介绍了再制造的内涵和国内外装备再制造研究、应用现状以及策略方法。在此基础上,结合我国现状和特点,分析了我国推动再制造产业发展的需求和潜力,并初步提出我国发展再制造工程存在的问题和应采取的有效措施。     

Callable products with dependent demands

Capacity providers such as airlines often sell the same capacity to different market segments at different prices to improve their expected revenues. The absence of a secondary market, due to the nontransferability of airline tickets, gives rise to an opportunity for airlines to broker capacity between consumers with different willingness to pay. One way to broker capacity is by the introduction of callable products. The idea is similar to callable bonds where the issuer has the right, but not the obligation, to buy back the bonds at a certain price by a certain date. The idea of callable products was introduced before under the assumption that the fare-class demands are all independent. The independent assumption becomes untenable when there is significant demand recovery (respectively, demand cannibalization) when lower fares are closed (respectively, opened). In this case, consumer choice behavior should be modeled explicitly to make meaningful decisions. In this paper, we consider a general consumer choice model and develop the optimal strategy for callable products. Our numerical study illustrates how callable products are win-win-win, for the capacity provider and for both high and low fare consumers. Our studies also identify conditions for callable products to result in significant improvements in expected revenues.     

烟花爆竹及民用爆炸物品建筑工程消防审核验收探讨

结合烟花爆竹、民用爆炸物品的生产、储存火灾危险性,探讨了公安机关消防机构如何对烟花爆竹、民用爆炸物品生产、储存场所进行消防设计审核验收,以起到加强烟花爆竹、民用爆炸物品生产、储存建筑消防安全的目的。     

Requirements planning for modular products

The focus of this paper is on determining the requirements of different component options of a modular end‐product in an uncertain environment. We explicitly model two distinct sources of uncertainty: stochastic end‐product demand and unknown market proportions for the different product options available. Our cost minimizing model focuses on determining the optimal requirements policies for component options that meet a pre‐set service level. We show that simple common‐sense requirements policies are not generally optimal; there is a non‐linear connection between service level and component requirements that is hard to characterize without a detailed analysis. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

社会总资本再生产实现条件的新变化

研究范围的拓展和对外贸易的作用是研究马克思关于社会总资本再生产实现条件新变化的基点。在现实中,社会总资本简单再生产和扩大再生产实现的条件都发生了新的变化。这对于指导我国社会主义经济更快更好的发展具有重要启示。