The Demand for Military Expenditure in Europe: The Role of Fiscal Space in the Context of a Resurgent Russia

A variant of established work on the demand for military expenditure is developed based on a practical concept of fiscal space from the perspective of short-term government choices concerning public expenditures. A new indicator, referred to as fiscal capacity, is defined and used as a candidate explanatory variable in an empirical model of European defence spending over the 2007–2016 period. Fiscal capacity is found to outperform simpler measurements of economic conditions, notably GDP growth forecasts, in explaining changes in defence spending efforts as a share of GDP. Regarding security environment variables, the results suggest that Russia has recently come to be seen as a potential military threat by European nations, leading to defence spending increases, the more so the shorter the distance to stationed or deployed Russian forces, and particularly so by those European nations that have a land border with Russia. A prospective exercise is then carried out in order to assess the capacity of EU member states that are also members of NATO to reach NATO’s 2% goal for defence spending over a mid-term horizon.     

线性模型的海基制导系统误差分离方法性能分析

利用传统制导工具系统误差线性回归模型,对Bayes估计、主成分分析以及正则化分析三种改进的分离方法进行了比较,分析了它们在工程应用上的优缺点,给出了实际应用时的限制因素;同时结合海基导弹特有的初始状态误差,设计了整体估计、分段估计以及迭代估计三种估计策略,给出了相应的分离步骤。仿真结果表明,文中给出的三种误差分离方法在不同的评价标准下具有不同的实际应用意义;而在弹道差评价标准以及方差评价标准下,分段估计和迭代估计策略下的误差分离结果要明显好于传统整体估计结果。     

备件保障效能动态评估方法

针对目前效能评估方法多重视效能指标的静态观测值,对时序状态数据所蕴含的趋势信息关注较少的缺点,提出基于灰色聚类-粗糙集和集对分析的备件保障效能动态评估方法。针对主客观赋权方法各自的优缺点,引入依赖度和重要度的概念,建立灰色聚类-粗糙集组合赋权模型;将指标权重引入集对理论,提出集对同势、均势和反势的定义,描述备件保障效能的变化规律,构建基于马尔可夫链的集对分析动态模型。实例分析结果表明,该方法可以有效反映备件保障效能的动态变化特征,为决策者制定备件保障长期计划提供科学依据。     

Sensitivity analysis on responsive pricing and production under imperfect demand updating

This paper examines three types of sensitivity analysis on a firm's responsive pricing and responsive production strategies under imperfect demand updating. Demand has a multiplicative form where the market size updates according to a bivariate normal model. First, we show that both responsive production and responsive pricing resemble the classical pricing newsvendor with posterior demand uncertainty in terms of the optimal performance and first‐stage decision. Second, we show that the performance of responsive production is sensitive to the first‐stage decision, but responsive pricing is insensitive. This suggests that a “posterior rationale” (ie, using the optimal production decision from the classical pricing newsvendor with expected posterior uncertainty) allows a simple and near‐optimal first‐stage production heuristic for responsive pricing. However, responsive production obtains higher expected profits than responsive pricing under certain conditions. This implies that the firm's ability to calculate the first‐stage decision correctly can help determine which responsive strategy to use. Lastly, we find that the firm's performance is not sensitive to the parameter uncertainty coming from the market size, total uncertainty level and information quality, but is sensitive to uncertainty originating from the procurement cost and price‐elasticity.     

Excess procurement strategies by a dominant buyer under constrained supply

Supply chains are often characterized by the presence of a dominant buyer purchasing from a supplier with limited capacity. We study such a situation where a single supplier sells capacity to an established and more powerful buyer and also to a relatively less powerful buyer. The more powerful buyer enjoys the first right to book her capacity requirements at supplier's end, and then the common supplier fulfills the requirement of the less powerful buyer. We find that when the supplier's capacity is either too low (below the lower threshold) or too high (above the higher threshold), there is no excess procurement as compared to the case when supplier has infinite capacity. When the supplier's capacity is between these two thresholds, the more powerful buyer purchases an excess amount in comparison to the infinite capacity case.     

同轴环缝气流作用下锥形液膜线性稳定性分析

为了分析气液同轴离心式喷嘴的雾化机理,对同轴气体作用下的锥形液膜进行时间稳定性分析,推导同轴气体作用下锥形液膜的色散方程,建立离心式喷嘴出口参数预测模型,用于数值求解色散方程。结果表明：喷嘴出口液膜厚度随着喷注压降的增加而减小,喷雾锥角、液膜速度和轴向速度随着喷注压降的增加而增大。同轴气体作用下液膜由正弦模式的表面波主导,因为正弦模式的表面波增长率远大于曲张模式的表面波增长率。当环缝气体喷注速度较小时,增加气体速度会减小气液相对速度,从而减弱气液相互作用,使得液膜主导表面波增长率和频率减小、破碎时间和破碎长度增加。而当环缝气体速度超过一个临界值后,随着气体速度的增大,液膜主导表面波增长率和频率迅速增大,破碎时间和破碎长度迅速减小。     

零压式高空气球球形设计与参数敏感性分析

高空气球能够为临近空间科学实验提供可靠的平台,其形状直接关系到气球制作及飞行的全过程。提出将多段打靶法与序列二次规划法结合,对零压气球完全膨胀和部分膨胀状态下的球形进行求解,并运用有限元方法对球形进行稳定性及应力应变分析,验证了所推导球形的正确性。在此基础上,对影响气球形状的关键参数进行灵敏度分析及相关运用,从定量的角度得到气球载荷、飞行高度及昼夜温差对气球形状的影响规律。     

高精度CFD程序的内外子区域划分异构并行算法

对计算流体力学(Computational Fluid Dynamics, CFD)程序CNS提出一种Offload模式下对任务内外子区域划分的异构并行算法,结合结构化网格下有限差分计算和四阶龙格-库塔方法的特点,引入ghost网格点区域,设计了一种ghost区域收缩计算策略,显著降低了异构计算资源之间的数据传输开销,负载均衡时CPU端的计算与MPI通信完全和加速器端的计算重叠,提高了异构协同并行性。推导了保证计算正确性的ghost区域的参数,分析了负载均衡的条件。在"CPU(Intel Haswell Xeon E5-2670 12 cores×2)+加速器(Xeon Phi 7120A×2)"的服务器上测得该算法较直接将任务子块整体迁至加速器端计算的异构算法性能平均提升至5.9倍,较MPI/OpenMP两级并行算法使用24个纯CPU核的性能,该算法使用单加速器时加速至1.27倍,使用双加速器加速至1.45倍。讨论和分析了性能瓶颈与存在的问题。     

弹(箭)体级间连接结构准静载失效实验与数值预示

级间螺栓法兰连接是导弹(火箭)常见的连接方式,但破坏了整体结构连续性,且承载能力薄弱,在外荷载作用下易发生失效而使整弹(箭)结构强度丧失。根据实际导弹(火箭)连接结构特点,简化设计并制作了一组原理性实验件,设计了准静载加载实验测试系统和螺栓响应信号传感器,进行了两次准静载失效实验,并利用ABAQUS软件建立了对应的有限元仿真模型。根据实验效果和实测数据,分析了连接结构在准静载荷载作用下的失效机理,并对比验证发现有限元模型数值模拟效果和精度与实验吻合较好。研究结论可为弹(箭)体级间连接结构承载能力和失效实验设计提供参考。     

Stochastic production capacity: A bane or a boon for quick response supply chains?

The quick response (QR) system that can cope with demand volatility by shortening lead time has been well studied in the literature. Much of the existing literature assumes implicitly or explicitly that the manufacturers under QR can always meet the demand because the production capacity is always sufficient. However, when the order comes with a short lead time under QR, availability of the manufacturer's production capacity is not guaranteed. This motivates us to explore QR in supply chains with stochastic production capacity. Specifically, we study QR in a two-echelon supply chain with Bayesian demand information updating. We consider the situation where the manufacturer's production capacity under QR is uncertain. We first explore how stochastic production capacity affects supply chain decisions and QR implementation. We then incorporate the manufacturer's ability to expand capacity into the model. We explore how the manufacturer determines the optimal capacity expansion decision, and the value of such an ability to the supply chain and its agents. Finally, we extend the model to the two-stage two-ordering case and derive the optimal ordering policy by dynamic programming. We compare the single-ordering and two-ordering cases to generate additional managerial insights about how ordering flexibility affects QR when production capacity is stochastic. We also explore the transparent supply chain and find that our main results still hold.