武警院校“四位一体”心理服务模式探索与实践

武警院校“四位一体”心理服务模式的主要职能任务包括课堂教学、测试咨询、心理训练和部队服务,在制度保障机制、组织保障机制和物质保障机制下有效运行,能够增强院校心理课堂教学的效果,拓宽官兵维护心理健康的渠道,提升部队心理骨干的业务能力。     

Using stochastic programming to solve an outpatient appointment scheduling problem with random service and arrival times

We study a stochastic outpatient appointment scheduling problem (SOASP) in which we need to design a schedule and an adaptive rescheduling (i.e., resequencing or declining) policy for a set of patients. Each patient has a known type and associated probability distributions of random service duration and random arrival time. Finding a provably optimal solution to this problem requires solving a multistage stochastic mixed‐integer program (MSMIP) with a schedule optimization problem solved at each stage, determining the optimal rescheduling policy over the various random service durations and arrival times. In recognition that this MSMIP is intractable, we first consider a two‐stage model (TSM) that relaxes the nonanticipativity constraints of MSMIP and so yields a lower bound. Second, we derive a set of valid inequalities to strengthen and improve the solvability of the TSM formulation. Third, we obtain an upper bound for the MSMIP by solving the TSM under the feasible (and easily implementable) appointment order (AO) policy, which requires that patients are served in the order of their scheduled appointments, independent of their actual arrival times. Fourth, we propose a Monte Carlo approach to evaluate the relative gap between the MSMIP upper and lower bounds. Finally, in a series of numerical experiments, we show that these two bounds are very close in a wide range of SOASP instances, demonstrating the near‐optimality of the AO policy. We also identify parameter settings that result in a large gap in between these two bounds. Accordingly, we propose an alternative policy based on neighbor‐swapping. We demonstrate that this alternative policy leads to a much tighter upper bound and significantly shrinks the gap.     

The inherent propensity toward peace or war embodied in weaponry

Thomas Schelling argues that armed adversaries face an inherent propensity toward peace or war embodied in their weaponry, geography and military organizations. Inherent propensity is the idea that there are characteristics embodied in the weapons that push adversaries toward peace or war, independent of the goals of the decision‐makers, the political disagreement between adversaries, and misperceptions about mutual resolve and hostility. We theoretically illustrate inherent propensity in conventional and nuclear arms settings using Lanchester and Intriligator war models. Our work extends the Intriligator‐Brito model, identifies when the competing Richardson and Intriligator‐Brito views of the relationship between arms races and war are correct, illustrates the stabilizing/destabilizing effects of alliances, and highlights the importance of arms quality control in the US‐USSR relationship.     

浅析下岗职工的社会资本降低问题

下岗职工的社会关系 (以下简称“关系”)是下岗职工实现个人行动策略的关键因素 ,也是下岗职工寻求”第二职业”或其它新资源的关键因素 ,本文重点研究国有企业下岗职工所拥有的作为社会载体的社会网络弱化以及在弱化的社会网络中获取资源的能力低弱而带来的社会资本的降低     

Impacts of logistics information on sales: Evidence from Alibaba

Facing fierce competition from rivals, sellers in online marketplaces are eager to improve their sales by delivering items faster and more reliably. Because logistics quality can be known only after a transaction, sellers must identify effective ways to communicate logistics information to consumers. Drawing on the accessibility-diagnosticity framework, we theorize that the sales impacts of logistics information depend on its relative diagnostic value. Using data on 1493 items with 505,785 consumer reviews from an online marketplace, we examine how sales are affected by three information sources for logistics services: online word of mouth (WOM) about logistics, self-reported logistics services, and expected delivery time. We use an instrumental variable method to address the endogeneity issue between sales and WOM. We find that, ceteris paribus, consumers give more weight to WOM about logistics and delivery time when they make purchase decisions but less weight to self-reported logistics service. The effects of logistics information on sales are asymmetric for large and small sellers.     

一种完全分布式的空间服务及组合模型

针对服务组合中控制流和数据流的不同协调机制,可将组合模型分为4种类型,分别是控制流集中式且数据流集中式、控制流集中式且数据流分布式、控制流分布式且数据流集中式、控制流分布式且数据流分布式.空间服务组合流程需处理较大规模的数据流,采用控制流分布式和数据流分布式的协调机制能有效降低组合过程中系统整体通信规模并减少空间服务组合响应时间.通过对各种不同组合类型建模的定量分析对上述观点进行了正确性论证.模拟实验证明,定量分析结果可信.     

幼儿教师心理资本问卷的编制及信效度检验

本研究旨在编制适合我国幼儿教师职业特点的心理资本问卷。在参考相关文献的基础上,根据访谈和开放式问卷调查,编制了问卷的项目;根据探索性因素分析,抽取了4个因素,即自信、乐观、希望和韧性。根据验证性因素分析和信效度分析,考察了问卷各项测量学指标,均达到要求。幼儿教师心理资本问卷共有21个项目,信度和效度良好,可以作为幼儿教师心理资本的测量工具。     

THE HUMAN CAPITAL PEACE: DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

This paper explores the relationship between human capital and international conflict. In theory, human capital may increase the opportunity cost of military service and the economic cost of injury and loss of life in combat; it may decrease the benefits of conflict as human capital cannot be easily appropriated or transferred; it may affect societal norms toward peace and war; and it may alter military productivity through new technology and complementarities between military technology and personnel. Using a panel of politically relevant dyads, I find robust empirical evidence that human capital may significantly decrease the likelihood of militarized conflict between nations. In short, the findings suggest that promoting human capital‐oriented development may help to increase peace in the world.     

基于依赖矩阵的Web服务组合故障诊断

为了保证指挥信息系统在动态环境下能够提供持续可靠的组合服务,提出一种利用依赖矩阵对Web服务组合故障原因进行诊断的模型,对依赖矩阵的建立进行了详细说明。然后,基于构造的依赖矩阵,提出改进的贪心算法对失效情况进行探测,并设计了基于二分查找的故障定位算法。实验模拟表明,提出的模型能够利用少量探测就能监测整个服务组合流程的运行情况,并定位找到错误源。     

层次聚类方法在消防投入分类中的应用

以中国消防年鉴2005年全国城市消防规划和城市公共消防设施建设情况统计资料为例,运用SPSS统计分析软件对全国各省消防基础设施建设情况进行分类汇总分析,从消防投入角度对新形势下的消防工作提出指导意见。