Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

Optimization of process parameters of the activated tungsten inert gas welding for aspect ratio of UNS S32205 duplex stainless steel welds

The activated TIG (ATIG) welding process mainly focuses on increasing the depth of penetration and the reduction in the width of weld bead has not been paid much attention. The shape of a weld in terms of its width-to-depth ratio known as aspect ratio has a marked influence on its solidification cracking tendency. The major influencing ATIG welding parameters, such as electrode gap, travel speed, current and voltage, that aid in controlling the aspect ratio of DSS joints, must be optimized to obtain desirable aspect ratio for DSS joints. Hence in this study, the above parameters of ATIG welding for aspect ratio of ASTM/UNS S32205 DSS welds are optimized by using Taguchi orthogonal array (OA) experimental design and other statistical tools such as Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Pooled ANOVA techniques. The optimum process parameters are found to be 1 mm electrode gap, 130 mm/min travel speed, 140 A current and 12 V voltage. The aspect ratio and the ferrite content for the DSS joints fabricated using the optimized ATIG parameters are found to be well within the acceptable range and there is no macroscopically evident solidification cracking.     

MONEY IN SOUTHERN AFRICAN POLITICS

“Lack of money is the root of all evil”

George Bernard Shaw

In a environment where party financing, private funding in particular, is generally a laissez-faire business, as in most Southern African countries, there is the real risk that interest groups and wealthy individuals will buy influence in political parties and in so doing erode public confidence in the political system. Because they are neither open to public scrutiny nor subject to any legislative restraints, huge private donations can, and often do, come with strings attached. This lack of transparency and openness, as well as mechanisms to prevent it, provides ample ground for influence peddling, where those who pay the piper call the tune. Left unchecked, this party funding scenario will continue to be a serious indictment of the region's democratisation projects, crippling democracy and stunting economic development. This article consid     

特种车辆乘载员生理监测与调节系统

特种车辆乘栽员的生理心理状态与车辆技术状态并列成为影响车辆整体效能的重要因素。针对乘栽员的生理心理状态进行监测并适时干预,可以实时掌握并调整人员状态。既有利于车辆能力发挥,也有利于整体协调。生理监测调节系统拟采用生物传感技术,采集人员生理心理指标参数,通过车辆通信及指控系统网络,使指挥人员能够及时掌握人员的疲劳及生命体征状态．通过合理的心理干预及医疗指导。使人员保持良好的心理生理状态或合理的医疗自救互救,最大程度地保存行动能力。该系统可应用于平时训练及评估．也可应用于行动决策指挥及医疗救护部署。     

一种鱼雷自导信号频率检测方法研究

靶场在进行智能鱼雷鉴定试验任务时,实时准确地检测出鱼雷自导信号的频率成分是靶标信号处理中的重要环节,谱线比值法便是靶标进行信号处理时检测信号频率的一种有效方法。本文介绍了谱线比值法的基本原理,针对目前鱼雷自导信号特点,对该方法提出了改进方案并进行了仿真。仿真结果表明,经改进的谱线比值法能够满足靶标检测复杂鱼雷自导信号体制下信号频率的使用要求。     

舰艇编队协同反导队形配置优化研究

随着舰艇编队网络中心作战模式的产生与发展,其队形配置问题必须重新给予考虑。首先介绍了网络化反导作战系统的远程数据作战能力;其后,从指挥通信、火力掩护和一次耦合杀伤区3个方面给出舰舰间距的约束条件,以远程数据作战条件下编队舰空导弹杀伤区增量最大为优化目标,建立编队舰舰间距优化模型,并在此基础上结合电子干扰的要求,给出了编队队列角的最优范围解算方法;最后,在一定的战场假设下,通过示例的方式对模型的有效性与适应性进行了验证。     

贯彻强军目标 创设良好思想政治工作环境

强军目标是新时期军队建设的行动纲领。思想政治建设必须围绕强军目标展开。军队思想政治工作受所处环境的影响和制约。贯彻强军目标创设良好的思想政治工作环境,首先要从本单位自身做起,建设净化优美的军营“小环境”,塑造军营环境的“奋斗之关”“陶冶之美”“形象之美”,增强思想政治工作环境的推动力、感染力和约束力。     

干扰条件下防空兵通信装备系统效能分析

为研究干扰条件下防空兵通信装备系统效能,在ADC模型的基础上构建了ADCF系统效能模型,并结合实例对模型进行了仿真分析.仿真结果显示,该模型能较好反映敌方干扰对通信装备系统效能的影响.提出了干扰条件下提高防空兵通信装备系统效能的措施.     

对岸电子进攻中航母阵位确定方法?

针对航母编队对岸电子进攻作战提出了一种航母编队阵位确定的方法。基于航母编队在对岸电子进攻中的任务,提出了航母编队与岸边距离的基本要求,建立了航母编队与岸边距离的数学模型,仿真计算了模型中各个参数对航母编队与岸边距离的影响。这些模型可用于航母编队在对岸电子进攻中确定航母的阵位,满足航母编队作战使用的需要。     

接敌前基于D-S理论的空战意图预测

接敌前是指敌机刚进入我方预警系统的探测范围(一般为400 km),并截获敌机,获得了敌机的运动参数,对敌机进行实时跟踪。为了完成对敌机目标意图的预测,为接敌前的自主决策打下基础,在D-S证据理论的基础上,选取合适的态势元素,分析各态势元素对敌机意图的影响,建立了目标意图预测模型,该模型具有一定的表达性和准确性。仿真实验表明,使用该模型能在敌机相距较远时以一定的准确性判断敌机的意图,实用性强,为接敌前基于意图预测的自主决策留出足够的时间。