Markovian models of three‐on‐one combat involving a hidden defender

In this paper, Markovian models of three‐on‐one stochastic firefights between ground‐based weapon systems are developed. These models address a common scenario of interest to the military, but one which has been much neglected in analytic combat models, that of combat between a hidden defender and an exposed attacking force. Each combatant must detect an opponent before commencing their firing cycle, a task which is considerably more difficult for the attacker. In the models developed here, the defender detects the exposed attacking group after an exponentially distributed time interval, while each attacker has a fixed probability of detecting the defender via the flash signature produced after each shot fired by him. The utility of the approach is demonstrated by investigating what impact the introduction of a coordinated gun‐laying system for the attacking force might have, a system made possible by battlefield digitization. The method used here allows models to be developed incrementally. This and other advantages of the Markovian approach are discussed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 627–646, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10041     

Effect of microstructure on short pulse duration shock initiation of TATB and initial response mechanism

Micro-TATB particles with different sizes and 3D nanoporous TATB architectures with different specific surface areas were prepared through recrystallization to study short pulse duration shock initiation properties by electric gun technology. For micro-TATB, the initiation threshold significantly decreases with TATB average size ranging from 79.7 μm to 0.5 μm. For 3D nanoporous TATB architecture, the initiation threshold decreases and then increases with specific surface areas increased from 9.6 m²/g to 36.2 m²/g. The lowest initiation thresholds are obtained for the micro-TATB with average sizes of 1.3 μm and 0.5 μm, and 3D nanoporous TATB architecture with specific surface area of 22.4 m²/g. The shock initiation thresholds of micro-TATB and 3D nanoporous TATB architectures show significantly decreases with the porosity increased. The decomposition reaction and thermal conductivity properties were further investigated to understand the initial response mechanism. High porosity provides more collapse sites to generate high temperature for formation of hot spots. The low thermal conductivity and decomposition temperature could enhance the formation and ignition of the hot spots, and initial decomposition reaction of TATB. The effect of the decomposition temperature is higher than that of the thermal conductivity on the shock initiation properties. The enhanced decomposition reaction could promote energy release and transfer process from the ignition to the combustion. This work offers a new insight to understand the effects of microstructure on the shock initiation properties and the initial response mechanism of TATB.     

气态煤油超声速燃烧简化化学反应模型

为探究超燃冲压发动机燃烧室中煤油燃料燃烧的化学动力学过程,综合采用敏感性分析方法与路径分析方法,针对RP-3航空煤油三组分替代燃料的详细反应模型进行简化,建立一种适用于超声速燃烧流场数值模拟的新型26组分89反应简化燃烧反应模型。采用该简化燃烧模型对RP-3航空煤油替代燃料的点火、燃烧特性进行数值模拟,并与详细反应模型结果和试验数据进行对比校验。此外,将该简化燃烧模型与超声速燃烧流场计算方法相结合,数值分析了典型超燃冲压发动机燃烧室流场内化学动力学特性。研究结果表明：新型简化燃烧反应模型在不影响数值模拟精度的前提下,有效减少了反应组分与反应方程个数,提高了超声速复杂燃烧流场的数值模拟效率,并且能够准确获得烯烃、炔烃等重要中间燃烧产物以及小分子活性基团的空间分布规律,给出更全面的流场信息。     

The transshipment fund mechanism: Coordinating the decentralized multilocation transshipment problem

The multilocation replenishment and transshipment problem is concerned with several retailers facing random demand for the same item at distinct markets, that may use transshipments to eliminate excess inventory/shortages after demand realization. When the system is decentralized so that each retailer operates to maximize their own profit, there are incentive problems that prevent coordination. These problems arise even with two retailers who may pay each other for transshipped units. We propose a new mechanism based on a transshipment fund, which is the first to coordinate the system, in a fully noncooperative setting, for all instances of two retailers as well as all instances of any number of retailers. Moreover, our mechanism strongly coordinates the system, i.e., achieves coordination as the unique equilibrium. The computation and information requirements of this mechanism are realistic and relatively modest. We also present necessary and sufficient conditions for coordination and prove they are always satisfied with our mechanism. Numerical examples illustrate some of the properties underlying this mechanism for two retailers. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

战役物资供应链定性仿真研究

运用定性建模与仿真的方法研究战役物资供应链的整体供应能力,能从整体性角度出发,全局遍历战役物资供应链的不利影响因素。简要介绍了SDG(Signed Directed Graph)定性仿真工具的结构和功能;建立了战役物资供应链整体功能定性仿真模型;根据案例描述,把定量描述转化成定性值,设置定性仿真初始值,进行定性仿真实验。仿真结果为:影响战役物资供应链整体供应能力的主要不利因素为"敌火力打击我战役供应指挥机构",可找到其产生的推理路径,改变定性初始值的设置,控制不利影响因素出现的次数。     

Disruption‐management strategies for short life‐cycle products

Supplier diversification, contingent sourcing, and demand switching (whereby a firm shifts customers to a different product if their preferred product is unavailable), are key building blocks of a disruption‐management strategy for firms that sell multiple products over a single season. In this article, we evaluate 12 possible disruption‐management strategies (combinations of the basic building‐block tactics) in the context of a two‐product newsvendor. We investigate the influence of nine attributes of the firm, its supplier(s), and its products on the firs preference for the various strategies. These attributes include supplier reliability, supplier failure correlation, payment responsibility in the event of a supply failure, product contribution margin, product substitutability, demand uncertainties and correlation, and the decision makes risk aversion. Our results show that contingent sourcing is preferred to supplier diversification as the supply risk (failure probability) increases, but diversification is preferred to contingent sourcing as the demand risk (demand uncertainty) increases. We find that demand switching is not effective at managing supply risk if the products are sourced from the same set of suppliers. Demand switching is effective at managing demand risk and so can be preferred to the other tactics if supply risk is low. Risk aversion makes contingent sourcing preferable over a wider set of supply and demand‐risk combinations. We also find a two‐tactic strategy provides almost the same benefit as a three‐tactic strategy for most reasonable supply and demand‐risk combinations. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

基于GO法的军事供应链可靠性分析

军事供应链管理要获得高效率和效益,最基础的必须是有高可靠性作保证。结合GO法——一种系统可靠性分析方法和军事供应链自身的特点,阐明了将GO法应用于军事供应链可靠性分析中的可行性。通过构建军事供应链结构模型,运用GO法原理,分析出军事供应链系统中的信号流和操作符,将军事供应链系统结构图转化为GO图,通过GO运算,求出各信号流的等效故障率,进而求出军事供应链中各节点的等效可靠度,对供应链网络结构模型的可靠性问题进行定量分析,并通过实例对该方法的应用进行了具体说明。结果表明：GO法不仅能够计算出整个军事供应链的可靠性,还可以清楚地得到各环节的可靠性,从而可以追溯出影响军事供应链系统整体可靠性的瓶颈,为制定相关的可靠性管理措施提供科学依据。     

微波辐射Fenton反应降解罗丹明B研究

Fenton试剂在降解有机污染物方面具有无二次污染等优势,但由于存在降解速率较慢的缺陷,在工程实践中尚未得以推广应用。考虑到微波具有促进有机化学反应速率的功能,采用微波和Fenton试剂联合作用氧化降解罗丹明B,对降解罗丹明B的优化实验条件进行了研究。首先研究了单一因素对降解效果的影响,然后对各种因素的综合作用效果进行了分析,得出了降解的优化实验条件。研究表明,微波能有效促进罗丹明B的降解脱色,而且能大大缩短反应时间,降低反应成本,增强Fenton氧化反应的活性,提高降解效果。     

药物爆燃产生强红外辐射的分析研究

定向红外脉冲强光辐射是定向红外对抗技术中的关键技术,用来破坏敌方精确制导武器或C4I系统中的红外传感器。本文主要研究了药物爆燃产生近红外辐射的特性,通过计算化学反应热分析了药物爆燃产生的总能量,并且详细介绍了几种不同的实验方法和实验结果。     

一类生化反应动力系统的极限环

研究生化反应中一类饱和反应的数学模型dxdt =a1 -xy a2 y2dydt=a3 xy-a2 y2 - vyy b应用微分方程定性理论 ,完整地解决了该系统极限环的存在性、唯一性和不存在性等问题。