An assessment of the ‘democratic’ coup theory

The Egyptian military's unconstitutional removal of President Mohamed Morsi has reignited a debate regarding the theory of the ‘democratic coup’. Though coups are almost invariably condemned, many political observers and a few scholars have recently argued that coups can act as catalysts for democratisation. This paper empirically assesses the democratic coup hypothesis for Africa. Multivariate analyses from 1952 to 2012 suggest that coups statistically improve a country's democratisation prospects. Extensions of the model show that coups appear to be likely precursors for democratisation in staunchly authoritarian regimes and have become less likely to end democracy over time, and that their positive influence has strengthened since the end of the Cold War. As of 2012, countries that have experienced a recent coup are expected to be four times more likely to witness a democratic transition than those that have remained coup-free.     

NATO AS AN EXTERNAL DRIVER OF INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN POST‐COMMUNIST COUNTRIES

So far, economic analyses of NATO enlargement have been restricted to aspects of regional security while political analyses focused on indirect peace‐building effects on democracy in the first place. Our panel regressions for 25 post‐communist countries for the period from 1996 to 2008 reveal that direct incentives provided by NATO pre‐accession are important for broad‐based institutional development. Results are even more robust than for variables measuring EU pre‐accession or NATO membership effects. This supports the argument that NATO can act as a transformative power and should strengthen its political agenda.     

水面光电探测技术研究进展分析与展望

文章围绕水面光电探测技术,对该技术的内涵特点、适用范围以及主要用途进行了概括介绍．对近些年来国外在水面光电探测技术方面的发展进行了梳理,分析列举了光电探测技术发展的若干趋势,并分析了目前国内外技术间存在的差距,最后对发展我军水面光电探测技术值得重点关注的研究方向进行了分析并提出了自己的建议。     

Virtual War in the Ice Jungle: ‘We don't know how to do this’

The Cold War at sea expanded in many realms, including the frigid and treacherous waters of the Arctic Ocean. The US Navy pioneered these efforts with the visit of USS Nautilus to the North Pole in 1958. During the latter stages of the Cold War, however, Soviet naval strategists began to conceptualize the polar ice cap as a strategic asset for cloaking the operations of its nuclear missile submarines. As under-ice operations afforded the Soviet submarine fleet advantages of stealth, proximity to target and tighter lines of communications, both navies were forced to try to develop tactics for combat under these extremely complex and arduous conditions.     

基于非合作雷达辐射源的无源雷达目标检测方法

主要研究了基于非合作雷达辐射源的非相参体制无源雷达目标检测问题。对目标回波通道中的直达波干扰,利用一种基于三元传感器对消的方法来进行抑制。然后采用周期间相关检测的处理方法对目标进行检测。仿真分析表明,该方法在辐射源信号未知的情况下,能够有效抑制目标回波通道中的直达波干扰,得到优于传统的确知信号的相关检测性能。     

基于最大比合并的循环平稳频谱协作检测

多天线空间分集和多用户协作检测是提高认知无线电频谱检测性能的2种关键技术,由此提出了基于循环平稳特征的多天线多用户频谱协作检测方法.首先接收器在频域按照最大比合并的方法合并各天线接收信号,对合并信号进行初步频谱判决.然后在多用户中按照K/N融合准则进一步做频谱协作检测.仿真分析表明,综合利用信号循环平稳特征和协作检测技术可有效改善认知无线电系统检测性能.     

随机共振在微弱信号检测中的数值仿真

对基于非线性双稳系统随机共振的微弱信号检测技术进行数值研究,利用随机共振机制,浸入在噪声中的微弱信号可以得到有效的放大与增强。给出了基于Runge Kutta算法的双稳系统随机共振模型的求解方法,提出了利用随机共振检测微弱非周期信号的一种新思路。数值仿真结果表明,该方法不仅可以检测出强噪声极低频的微弱周期信号,而且可以对非周期信号进行有效的检测。     

Efficient distributions of arms‐control inspection effort

A rule that constrains decision‐makers is enforced by an inspector who is supplied with a fixed level of inspection resources—inspection personnel, equipment, or time. How should the inspector distribute its inspection resources over several independent inspectees? What minimum level of resources is required to deter all violations? Optimal enforcement problems occur in many contexts; the motivating application for this study is the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in support of the Treaty on the Non‐Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Using game‐theoretic models, the resource level adequate for deterrence is characterized in a two‐inspectee problem with inspections that are imperfect in the sense that violations can be missed. Detection functions, or probabilities of detecting a violation, are assumed to be increasing in inspection resources, permitting optimal allocations over inspectees to be described both in general and in special cases. When detection functions are convex, inspection effort should be concentrated on one inspectee chosen at random, but when they are concave it should be spread deterministicly over the inspectees. Our analysis provides guidance for the design of arms‐control verification operations, and implies that a priori constraints on the distribution of inspection effort can result in significant inefficiencies. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

无位置传感器开关磁阻电机的转子位置检测与启动

提出了一种检测无位置传感器开关磁阻电机(SRM)无迟滞启动转子初始位置的估算方法,通过向电机定子相绕组注入瞬时(0.5 ms)测试脉冲来准确估算转子初始位置,从而实现转子处于任何位置时的无迟滞启动,详细的仿真分析证实了该方法的可行性,并且实验效果较好,进一步证实了该方法的有效性。     

基于改进SUSAN算法的红外目标边缘检测

从3个方面改进了传统的SUSAN算法:①自适应选取阈值,以提高算法自动化程度:②使用双几何阈值,增强算法的抗噪性;③加入目标点判断因子,减少计算时间.利用改进的算法进行了红外目标边缘检测,结果表明,改进算法比传统的SUSAN算法有更强的噪声抑制能力,更快的边缘检测速度,显示出更加优良的性能.对对比度比较低的红外图像,改进算法可以减少40%以上的计算时间,而对对比度较高的红外图像,改进算法可以减少70%以上的计算时间.