装备预研管理数字化转型研究——数字孪生装备预研

数字经济时代,装备预研管理应积极面对数字化转型趋势,构建与数字经济发展相适应的管理体系。结合数字经济的变革属性,借鉴民口科技计划管理数字化实践经验做法,总结和分析当前装备预研管理数字化面临的主要问题及紧迫需求,提出未来装备预研管理发展的一种新范式——数字孪生装备预研,即利用数字孪生助力装备预研管理的数字化转型,并从组成、理想特征和能力、关键技术以及发展路径四个方面对数字孪生装备预研的概念内涵进行了深化阐述,以期对当前装备预研管理的创新起到参考和促进作用。     

一种基于周期分区的时间调度算法

针对多功能相控阵雷达任务实时调度问题,提出了一种基于采样周期分区的时间资源调度算法(记为PD)。该算法以各类任务采样周期的最大公约数为分区标准,将各采样周期均分为多个等长区间,再将各类任务平均分配到不同分区中调度执行,可解决调度过程中任务因采样周期不同产生冲突的难题。仿真结果表明,该算法可提高系统任务调度能力,可广泛应用于相控阵雷达任务调度及其他实时任务调度系统。     

注册登记管理民用灭火救援装备的探讨

阐述了民用设备用于消防灭火救援的使用现状和存在的主要问题,从使用民用设备被动管理分析了存在这些问题的主要原因,并采取提高调集能力、参战队员的救援素质、民用设备的使用率、注册登记的基础建设、互相制约机制等对策加强依法注册登记管理民用设备,拓宽灭火救援装备来源,解决灭火救援装备短缺的问题,调动全社会力量更好地完成消防部队担负的各项灭火救援任务。     

边境安全风险评估矩阵模型构建研究

提出边境安全风险和边境安全风险评估的概念。围绕边境安全风险状态和边境安全风险类型两个维度构建边境安全风险评估的矩阵模型。其中,边境安全风险状态维度包括边境安全风险源活跃度、边境安全风险源聚集度、边境安全风险供应链成熟度、边境安全风险源异常度;边境安全风险类型包括外生型边境安全风险、内生型边境安全风险、网络型边境安全风险、跨境型边境安全风险。并论述了边境安全风险评估矩阵模型的应用。     

基层公安警卫部队精细化管理初探

目前,精细化管理理念已深入人心,并广泛运用于社会各行各业。在公安警卫部队推行精细化管理有着重要的现实意义。结合杭州公安警卫部队实际,对公安警卫部队精细化管理的基本特征：和步骤,公安警卫部队精细化管理的重要环节等进行探讨。     

我国外警培训管理模式研究

外警培训是国家整体外交和国际警务合作的重要组成部分.通过分析比较封闭式管理模式和开放式管理模式的运行方式及优缺点,研究不同的管理模式对外警培训的质量和效果产生的影响,结合我国当前国情和国际执法培训发展趋势,提出了框架式外警培训管理模式。     

美国边防管理理念及其启示

美中两国作为世界上比较大的海陆兼备的国家,边防环境有着诸多相似之处.从边界管理外移、重视海防、实施差异化边界管理模式、注重科技防边等方面对美国边防管理理念进行分析,提出美国边防管理理念带给中国边防管理工作的启示：陆海并重,突出海防;区别对待;预防为主;科技管边。     

Conflict management in the Central African Republic: making genocide prevention work

This commentary analyses the international response to the crisis that struck the Central African Republic (CAR) in early December 2013. It examines three intertwined dimensions defining the courses of action available to policymakers dealing with pre-genocidal crises: the politics and institutional manoeuvring shaping the United Nations (UN) Security Council's decision to authorise an enforcement mission without deploying ‘blue helmets’ on the ground; the operational complexities involved in launching rapid reaction forces; and the interdependent logics between peacebuilding and atrocity prevention. The author argues that there are three ways for the UN Secretariat to ensure a more effective response to CAR-type situations: generating political will to respond swiftly to deteriorating crises leading to widespread abuses of human rights by advancing the concept of Responsibility to Protect as a core component of states' national interests; developing strategic frameworks for the deployment of multi-plural missions equipped to avert the actual or potential threat of atrocities; and developing joint early warning and scenario planning between peacebuilding and atrocity prevention agencies.     

Evaluating the potential effects from probabilistic selling of similar products

In this article, we consider an online retailer who sells two similar products (A and B) over a finite selling period. Any stock left at the end of the period has no value (like clothes going out of fashion at the end of a season). Aside from selling the products at regular prices, he may offer an additional option that sells a probabilistic good, “A or B,” at a discounted price. Whenever a customer buys a probabilistic good, he needs to assign one of the products for the fulfillment. Considering the choice behavior of potential customers, we model the problem using continuous‐time, discrete‐state, finite‐horizon dynamic programming. We study the optimal admission decisions and devise two scenarios, whose value functions can be used as benchmarks to evaluate the demand induction effect and demand dilution effect of probabilistic selling (PS). We further investigate an extension of the base MDP (Markov Decision Process) model in which the fulfillment of probabilistic sales is uncontrollable by the retailer. A special case of the extended model can be used as a benchmark to quantify the potential inventory pooling effect of PS. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the overall profit improvement, and the effects from adopting the PS strategy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 61: 604–620, 2014     

A nonatomic‐game model for timing clearance sales under competition

We deal with dynamic revenue management (RM) under competition using the nonatomic‐game approach. Here, a continuum of heterogeneous sellers try to sell the same product over a given time horizon. Each seller can lower his price once at the time of his own choosing, and faces Poisson demand arrival with a rate that is the product of a price‐sensitive term and a market‐dependent term. Different types of sellers interact, and their respective prices help shape the overall market in which they operate, thereby influencing the behavior of all sellers. Using the infinite‐seller approximation, which deprives any individual seller of his influence over the entire market, we show the existence of a certain pattern of seller behaviors that collectively produce an environment to which the behavior pattern forms a best response. Such equilibrium behaviors point to the suitability of threshold‐like pricing policies. Our computational study yields insights to RM under competition, such as profound ways in which consumer and competitor types influence seller behaviors and market conditions. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 365–385, 2014