DESIGNING A VIABLE PREDICTION MARKET TO FORECAST DEFENSE ACQUISITION COST AND SCHEDULE OUTCOMES

This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision‐making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to ‘bet’ on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market’s beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest.     

The British army,information management and the First World War revolution in military affairs

Information Management (IM) – the systematic ordering, processing and channelling of information within organisations – forms a critical component of modern military command and control systems. As a subject of scholarly enquiry, however, the history of military IM has been relatively poorly served. Employing new and under-utilised archival sources, this article takes the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) of the First World War as its case study and assesses the extent to which its IM system contributed to the emergence of the modern battlefield in 1918. It argues that the demands of fighting a modern war resulted in a general, but not universal, improvement in the BEF’s IM techniques, which in turn laid the groundwork, albeit in embryonic form, for the IM systems of modern armies.     

Security sector stabilisation in counterinsurgency operations: the case of Afghanistan

This article argues that the debate on security sector reform (SSR) needs to be taken further by taking into consideration the fact that, even though the SSR concept was not originally developed as an element in stabilising states undergoing an insurgency, it is very much being used for exactly that. When conducting counterinsurgency with a focus on the creation of stability, the baseline will ultimately have to be security sector stabilisation (SSS) as a precondition for complete SSR implementation. However, the two must be connected to avoid them undermining each other. This is important if a comprehensive approach to programme implementation and especially sustainability is to guide the programme, and not just isolated ‘train and equip’ stand-alone projects that do not solve either the initial need for stabilisation or the long-term need for accountable security forces. Currently, in Afghanistan the surge for security by the international military is in danger of overtaking the other elements of the SSR, thereby undermining the primary end state and thus risking laying the wrong foundation for the long-term process of SSR.     

高焓高压空气加热器壁面传热过程数值计算

以一种高焓高压空气加热器为研究对象,对其冷却通道的流动和传热进行了三维数值仿真,冷却剂采用液态水,燃烧室和喷管分别采用不同的壁面材料,考虑壁面材料物性随温度的变化,并通过加热器热试验证了数值仿真结果的正确性。在此基础上,对比分析了气体辐射、冷却通道结构以及冷却水的流动方式对壁面换热的影响。结果表明:气体辐射对加热器燃烧室段壁面换热影响较大,对喷管壁面换热无明显的影响。在传热计算中,忽略气体辐射会引起较大的误差;冷却通道数和宽度存在最优组合,使得壁面换热量最大。冷却水的流动方式对燃气侧壁面温度影响较小,但对冷却液侧壁面温度的影响较大。     

单幅Bayer格式图像的快速去雾方法

为了降低雾天对成像的影响,获得实时的去雾效果,对彩色图像处理流程进行改进,提出一种新颖快速的基于Bayer图像和暗原色先验模型的单幅图像去雾方法。Bayer图像是数码相机采集的原始图像数据,数据量小。针对Bayer图像像素排列特点,对原有暗原色先验去雾算法进行了优化和改进。运用四叉树细分算法估算大气光,根据Bayer图像特点修正了Guided Filter,并利用修正的滤波器优化大气透射图,进而恢复出无雾Bayer图像,采用去马赛克及系列后处理算法获得清晰的显示图像。实验结果表明,新方法在一定程度上改善了原算法去雾效果,并显著提高了运算速度。     

基于循环平稳的卫星信道多普勒频移估计

基于线性调制信号的循环平稳特性,卫星信道多普勒频移的估计可以通过求解发送信号与接收信号的循环相关函数关系得到.借助循环谱函数推导出发送信号的循环相关函数,接收信号的循环相关函数则对信号本身及其有限差分进行计算.仿真结果说明了该算法对信道中的干扰与噪声不敏感,在多普勒频移较大时,该算法具有良好的估计精度;同时该算法还具有低复杂度和应用灵活的特点.     

文化安全视角下的新疆高校网络舆情管理探究

文化安全的关键在意识形态,意识形态领域中的关键问题是价值观掌控问题。作为文化传播的主要组成部分,网络舆情对文化安全的表层和深层结构都有重要影响。本文从文化安全视角下切入,结合新疆高校网络舆情调研,分析了文化安全面临的冲击与挑战,并提出了基于文化安全保障下的新疆高校网络舆情有效管理方式和路径。     

普通高校网络工程专业实验室的设计与建设刍议

本文主要针对那些定位于培养工程应用型网络专业人才的普通高校,分析了其对于计算机网络、网络工程与网络技术应用方面的专业实验室的建设需求,并基于此提出了此类实验室的一种设计方案,同时进一步探讨了此类实验室在建设后期与管理方面应当把握的主要问题。本文提出的建设方案和思路,具有一次性投入不高、可扩展性强、易于实施、灵活适应性好、可支持远程开放式实验等优点,因此不失为一种可行的选择。     

影响现代大学治理的教育政策环境分析

政策环境是政浆活动的平台,当环境发生变化时,就会对决茕系统产生一定的刺激作用。大学作为社会大系统中的一个子系统,其治理必然会受到政治、经济、文化等相关数育政策环境因素的影响。其中,社会政治民主化、市场经济的开放多元化,大学内部文化力量的渗透以及西方大学治理理念的影响,对我国现代大学治理的调适性转变和发展有着深远的意义。     

文娱领域综合治理语境下高校艺术学科教师评价与考核机制建设的相关问题研究

文娱领域综合治理是当下的文化热点,但与之相关的高校艺术学科教师的评价与考核机制建设却一直是被学术界忽略的问题。该问题不仅关乎高校教师评价与考核工作的整体进程、艺术学科的健康发展,还关乎国家文艺创作队伍的建设、文娱行业的天清气朗。本文认为艺术学科教师评价与考核机制是决定文娱领域艺人违法失德乱象的重要要素之一,科学、系统、规范的评价与考核机制有利于这一问题的解决。