The Rationality of Serb Leaders in the Bosnian War

This paper asks whether Bosnian Serb leaders’ choice to carry out a secession war in 1992–1995 was rational from the point of view of their stated goal of ethnic cleansing. We construct two indexes, one of ethnic purity and another of ethnic Serb concentration, and apply them to a counterfactual estimate of the outcome of ‘peaceful’ ethnic cleansing – what could have been achieved by population exchange based on pre-war territorial Serb power without war – in comparison to the actual outcome of the war. We find that the gross benefits of the chosen strategy of secession and war far exceed anything that could be achieved by the peaceful alternative. A conjectural assessment of perceived costs suggests that also net benefits were maximized by the war strategy. The implication for international deterrence policy is that credible judicial prosecution and punishment is the best way to alter the prospective perpetrators’ calculus.     

高技术条件下的装备保障

通过分析研究高技术条件下装备保障的特点,概要阐述了外军装备保障的发展趋势,重点分析了我军装备保障的现状和发展中存在的问题,提出了装备保障发展的建设性意见.     

现代战争中电子战装备及作战特点

以科索沃战争为背景 ,叙述了电子装备的使用和战术运用情况 ,并分析了战争中电子战的作战形式及特点 ,指出了应吸取的教训     

Diversionary Tactics and the Ethiopia–Eritrea War (1998–2000)

Diversionary theories of war suggest that leaders may engage in bellicose foreign policies to divert the public’s attention from domestic problems and capitalize on a ‘rally around the flag’ type of effect. The evidence regarding diversionary theory is quite mixed. More recently, scholars have focused on situations that create opportunities for diversionary behavior, such as international rivalry and territorial disputes. This paper adds to the growing literature on diversionary conflict by considering the Ethiopia–Eritrea case and applying an opportunity-based approach. We assess whether the Ethiopia–Eritrea War (1998–2000) is consistent with diversionary explanations for the war, as many have previously claimed.     

Dissolution of an Empire: Insights from the İstanbul Bourse and the Ottoman War Bond

During the transformation period of the Ottoman Empire leading to the Republic of Turkey, many conflicts took place between 1918 and 1923. These conflicts interrupted the servicing of the Ottoman war bond. The reimbursement likelihood of this bond was related to the outcomes of First World War and the hostilities. This paper analyses the impacts of First World War and hostilities on the risk assessments regarding the Ottoman war debt, using manually collected data on the price of the Ottoman war bond traded at the ?stanbul bourse between 1918 and 1925. The empirical results imply that the defeat of the Bulgarian army and the peace offer of Austria-Hungary were associated with the increasing premium demanded by investors of the bond. The victories of the Turkish National Movement and the peace offer of the Allies to end the hostilities by 1922 positively affected the likelihood of the servicing of the debt.     

Turning the tides of war: The impact of private military and security companies on Nigeria’s counterinsurgency against Boko Haram

Since the 2003 war in Iraq, private military and security companies (PMSCs) have become increasingly legitimate actors in modern conflicts. Despite this normative shift, rumours in March 2015 regarding the use of South African mercenaries in Nigeria to combat Boko Haram insurgents caused an international outrage, while the Nigerian government remained nonchalantly silent on the matter. This article investigates the impact of mercenaries on the conflict in the last six months of the Jonathan government. Using primary and secondary qualitative research, it assesses the role that PMSCs played in Nigeria’s counterinsurgency strategy, along with the ensuing reaction of international and local media to the outsourcing of violence to foreign companies. The article concludes that – notwithstanding the improved image of PMSCs in the world, and the actual impact of the contractors on the Nigerian counterinsurgency effort – the stigma of mercenaries continues to plague the industry, particularly on the African continent.     

建立军民融合创新体系的重大意义

加快形成军民融合创新体系,是习主席在十二届全国人大五次会议解放军代表团全体会议上提出的重大战略思想。建立军民融合创新体系,是顺应军民科技发展新形势的必然抉择,是夯实科技兴军物质基础的内在要求、提升国家创新能力的重大举措、推动创新文化形成的有效途径,也是推进供给侧结构性改革的现实需求。加快形成军民融合创新体系,反映了现代战斗力和生产力生成的规律,体现了统筹国家安全和发展全局的内在要求,为深入实施军民融合发展战略、开创强军兴国新局面指明了方向,具有重大意义。     

战备储备方案的Flexsim仿真构建

以某战役方向的战时物资保障为背景,充分考虑“三线”仓库的地理位置和储存能力、运输能力、运输线路、仓库和运输工具遭受打击破坏等因素对储备数量和布局的影响,建立Flexsim仿真模型。对模型进行仿真实验并分析实验报告的数据,找出平时战备储备方案中存在的问题和改进的方向。将改进后的模型再次进行仿真实验,如此循环直到得出满意的结果,为战备储备计划的制定和储备方案的改进提供定量参考。     

信息化战争与压制火炮综合控制技术发展概述

以信息化战争条件下的军事需求分析为切入点,主要探讨了未来高技术信息化战争所带来的作战理论与作战方式的深刻变革,以及这些新的作战理论、方式对炮兵武器装备总体发展所带来的强烈需求与牵引.根据作者多年从事炮兵武器装备论证、研制的工作实践,提出了我军自行压制火炮实现信息化过程中应把握的技术发展方向和重点.