THE HARD CASES

Many countries received Soviet-origin highly enriched uranium (HEU) for civilian nuclear research purposes. Because of inadequate nuclear security at a number of the research sites, U.S. policy has sought to remove or otherwise safely dispose of their HEU stocks as quickly as possible. Although the pace of HEU disposition has accelerated significantly in recent years, several sites have posed formidable technical, economic, and political challenges. This article identifies the major obstacles to HEU removal at two key installations—Kharkiv in Ukraine, and Sosny in Belarus—and recommends a strategy for overcoming these impediments. Key components for a successful disposition strategy include: treating these cases with the urgency they deserve, expanding potential compensation packages, explicitly addressing the institutional and political issues involved, engaging high-level political leaders, working with third parties, and promoting these efforts as part of a nondiscriminatory initiative to phase out HEU in the civilian nuclear sector globally.     

Nuclear Subsidies and Proliferation: Clarifying the Link

ABSTRACT

In March 2015, the South Australian state government established a royal commission to investigate the financial, social, technical, diplomatic, and nonproliferation benefits and risks of expanding its nuclear industry, including activities related to uranium mining; enriching, reprocessing, and fabricating nuclear fuels for both domestic use and export; producing nuclear power; and storing radiological waste, including foreign spent reactor fuel. Given its enormous uranium reserves and current mining activities, some Australians have argued that Australia could benefit financially by expanding the mining sector and by adding value to its uranium exports by enriching the material and fabricating it into reactor fuel assemblies. Others have maintained that Australia can realize significant economic benefits by recycling and storing foreign spent fuel and producing carbon-free nuclear power. In the end, the commission recommended that Australia consider opening up a high-level waste repository to take in foreign spent fuel. It did not recommend any other nuclear activities at this time. The following viewpoint is based on testimony I delivered to the commission on the nuclear weapon proliferation implications of the proposed activities. If Australia wants to avoid the temptation of selling nuclear goods to states that might use these goods to make bombs, it should only consider new nuclear activities that can be entirely financed by the private sector and turn a profit without having to resort to foreign sales. This policy would also enable Australia to set an important, new international nonproliferation standard.     

Playing dirty to survive: the vulnerability of civilian targets within U.S. military aid recipient states

ABSTRACT

U.S. military aid provides recipient governments the fighting capability they require to undermine domestic militant groups, which can undermine groups’ leadership structures and trigger group splintering. In this environment, brutal attacks against non-combatants become an effective mechanism for targeted groups to signal their resolve and outbid competitors. A large-n analysis of U.S. military aid between 1989 -2011 links higher levels of military aid with higher levels of rebel-perpetrated civilian killings, and deaths due to explosive attacks on non-combatant targets. A closer examination of the case of Pakistan sheds further light on the underlying causal mechanisms.     

US warfare in Somalia and the trade-off between casualty-aversion and civilian protection

This article examines the ways in which the two normative concerns of casualty-aversion and civilian protection influenced US military strategy in the particular context of the asymmetric conflict in Somalia in the early 1990s. The article critically evaluates US military operations through the prism of international humanitarian law and examines whether American forces started prioritizing casualty-aversion over the safeguarding of Somali civilians. Finally, by drawing on emerging moral guidelines (such as Michael Walzer's idea of ‘due care’), the article examines whether lower numbers of Somali civilian deaths could have been achieved if marginal increases to the risks faced by US soldiers had been accepted.     

模块化设计思想在战时民船征用改造成维修保障船中的应用

对模块化设计思想在战时民船征用改造成维修保障船中的应用作了有益探讨,对战时民船征用改造成维修保障船的必要性进行了论证。并以集装箱船为例,充分论证了在战时应用模块化设计思想把民船改造成维修保障船的优势所在,进而对改装初步方案进行了论证设计。对战时开展民船征用改造成维修保障船工作,及拓展战时装备保障思路,有一定的参考价值。     

关于军民融合大交通体系建设的几点思考

党的十九大报告把军民融合发展战略作为七大国家战略之一,明确提出要"更加注重军民融合"。必须将交通领域军民融合视作整个军民融合深度发展的重要突破口,建设军民融合大交通体系。提出以新形势下军事战略方针为统揽,以军民深度融合为途径,聚焦保障军队打赢,大力推进民用交通设施工具贯彻要求;依托国家路网基础,大力推进军地交通运输网络统筹纳入;强化应战应急一体,大力推进各种交通力量建设互补衔接;着眼战略投送能力,大力推进军民交通物流体系有机结合。     

空间天气对国家安全的影响研究

随着科技的发展和进步,世界各国越来越认识到空间天气的重要性,并对空间天气效应展开深入的理论和实践探索。我国也加快空间天气领域的研究进程,并取得了一定成就。本文系统介绍了空间天气的定义与发展历程,运用总体国家安全观的方法,从国土安全、军事安全、经济安全与核安全等角度分析了灾害性空间天气对国家安全的影响。在对国内外空间天气研究现状和发展趋势分析的基础上,针对灾害性空间天气的国家安全影响提出了政策性建议。     

军民融合产业内涵及范畴

发展军民融合产业是各级政府落实军民融合发展国家战略的重要抓手之一。针对军民融合产业界定不清等问题,从理论研究和实践工作层面梳理既有观点及演变趋势,形成对军民融合产业的客观认识。在此基础上,剖析军民融合产业的属性特征,从指导实践工作角度出发提出三种界定军民融合产业范畴及相关统计工作的合理化思路,并提出建立两级联动工作机制、开展国家工业基础中国防科研生产能力普查工作、试点开展军民融合产业分类标准及指标体系建设工作、加强军民融合产业统计数据质量监测等政策建议。     

The revisionist historiography of Britain’s decolonisation conflicts and political science theses of civilian victimisation in counterinsurgency

ABSTRACT

Recent historical research exposed the myth of self-restraint as the distinctive feature of British counterinsurgency during decolonisation. This article shows that the revisionist historiography of British counterinsurgency has important, but unnoticed, implications for political scientists. Specifically, historical scholarship challenges the predictions and causal mechanisms of the main social scientific theses of civilian victimisation in counterinsurgency. Using revisionist historians’ works as a source of data, I test those theses against Britain’s decolonisation conflicts. I find that they do not pass the test convincingly. I conclude that political scientists should be more willing to explore the theoretical implications of new historical evidence on counterinsurgency campaigns.     

PARLIAMENT AND DEFENCE OVERSIGHT

Abstract

A tremendous amount of important work has been done recently on operationalising the protection of civilians as a military task. The bulk of the discussion has focused on how militaries should respond to direct attacks on civilians. This is an important issue, but thinking about civilian protection should also include a serious examination of the ways in which the approach of military organisations to the problem of ‘spoiler’ groups can affect the level and dynamics of attacks on civilians – importantly, where armed groups are interested in violent control of civilian populations, attempts to ‘dislodge’ them from areas of control may substantially increase the level of violence against civilians (beyond the dangers to be expected from being near areas where active fighting is taking place). In 2009, the United Nations mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC) supported the Congolese military in operations to dismantle the Hutu-dominated FDLR (Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda, Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda) militia group, at massive human cost. Critics have primarily focused on MONUC's failure to protect civilians from direct attack, consonant with the general discourse on tactics for civilian protection. These criticisms are valid, but in this paper I argue that two crucial additional considerations should be kept in mind: the way that military operations can affect violence against civilians, and the way that moralising the approach to armed groups, even those which have committed serious abuses, can limit military and political options – potentially in ways that increase civilian risk in the name of protecting them.