改进IAHP-CIM模型的雷达组网探测能力评估方法

针对雷达组网探测能力的评估问题,采用鱼骨图法对影响雷达组网探测能力的多种因素进行梳理,得到结构层次清晰的指标评价体系。采用改进的区间层次分析—控制区间和记忆模型对该指标体系进行评估,具体方法是:运用区间层次分析法构造区间判断矩阵;利用蛙跳算法求解区间判断矩阵中满足最小一致性的确定性矩阵;利用控制区间和记忆模型来确定各指标的风险概率,实现指标体系的评估。以具体的案例为对象进行仿真实验,结果表明,所提评估方法有效,评估结论相对客观、可信,对雷达组网探测能力评估具有一定参考价值,从而为雷达组网的优化部署奠定良好基础。     

Indications and warning in Belgium: Brussels is not Delphi

The terrorist attacks in France and Belgium of 2015–2016 that occurred while these countries were in a heightened state of alert raise questions about indications and warning methodology as well as effectiveness of the blanket-protection deployment of security services assisted even by the military. Response and perhaps even more anticipation may require strategic rethinking in light of the predatory attacks that target the most vulnerable spots of the public space. This study looks at threat analysis in Belgium as conducted through her intelligence fusion centre Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (CUTA)?????? since its inception in 2006. With a special focus on what is known, at the time of writing, about the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, this study hopes to put into context how the system (mal)functions and will also consider the preventive measures that respond to the threat, and the international aspects which have implications far beyond Belgian borders. Therefore, a case is made for not just a Belgian homeland security framework, but one that fits into an EU-wide security concept.     

伞翼无人机线性自抗扰高度控制

针对伞翼无人机参数不确定性和复杂环境干扰敏感的问题,提出一种伞翼无人机线性自抗扰(Linear Active Disturbance Rejection Control,LADRC)高度控制方法。建立伞翼无人机8自由度飞行动力学模型,并引入风场和降雨模型以更加准确地模拟真实飞行环境。基于LADRC确定总体控制架构,设计线性扩张状态观测器对所有扰动进行估计,并引入误差反馈率在控制中实时补偿。使用该控制方法在多种扰动工况下进行伞翼无人机高度控制仿真实验。仿真结果表明,基于LADRC的高度控制方法能够有效克服内扰和外扰的影响,实现高精度高度控制;与传统PID控制效果相比,LADRC控制器具有更好的抗扰能力和鲁棒性。     

非椭圆扩展目标联合跟踪与分类算法

充分利用目标尺寸和形状信息,提出了一种基于星凸随机超曲面模型(random hypersurface model, RHM)的非椭圆扩展目标联合跟踪与分类(joint tracking and classification, JTC)算法。将目标空间扩展状态建模为星凸形状,通过目标类别相关先验信息的矢量化建模,建立起其与目标瞬时扩展状态的关系,并在统一的贝叶斯滤波框架下,实现跟踪与分类的一体化处理;进一步对目标运动学状态和扩展状态单独进行建模,并通过构建扩展状态的似然函数,利用粒子滤波实现目标类别概率算式的递推处理。仿真结果表明:与基于椭圆形状的扩展目标JTC算法相比,所提算法能对尺寸相近、形状不同的目标进行准确分类,同时可改善目标状态的估计效果;与基于星凸RHM的扩展目标跟踪算法相比,所提算法能大幅提高目标状态的估计性能。     

分段履带式水陆两栖车减阻增速试验及数值仿真

为了研究分段履带式水陆两栖车的水动力性能,实现减阻增速,将尾翼板安装到水陆两栖车的方艉部,并开展了水池试验和仿真研究,两者的研究结果具有较好的一致性。通过仿真研究了车体的纵向重心位置、尾翼板的长度和角度对水陆两栖车阻力性能的影响,并分析了阻力成分的变化趋势。研究结果表明:车体纵向重心位置在540～560 mm 时,车体所受水阻力最小;在速度为3～5 m/s时,长度为156 mm,与水平面夹角为10°的尾翼板减阻效果最明显,相比于原裸车体的阻力,减阻率达到34.3%;加装尾翼板可以增加车体的尾部中空区长度,相当于增加了水线长,增大了长宽比。该研究表明:适当调节重心位置和优化尾翼板参数,可以有效实现水陆两栖车的减阻增速。     

Research on a MEMS pyrotechnic with a double-layer barrier safety and arming device

As an essential component of ammunition, pyrotechnics can control ignition with high reliability. However, due to limits of fabrication technology, traditional pyrotechnics are bulky. To achieve both functionality and miniaturization, MEMS pyrotechnics integrate initiator, safety-and-arming (S&A) device and lead charge and keep all components within a small size. MEMS S&A devices, as the core component to ensure system safety, are difficult to achieve active and rapid response to control signals with high safety and reliability. In order to overcome the difficulty, we propose the design and characterization of a MEMS pyrotechnic with a double-layer barrier S&A device. The MEMS pyrotechnic is a high-integrated device with an overall size of 13.4 × 8.5 × 5.2 mm³. The initiator is a NiCr bridge foil covered with an Al/CuO energetic film, which can generate flame when ignited by an excitation voltage. To match the flame energy, lead styphnate is chosen in this study as the lead charge. The S&A device contains four semi-circular barriers, which are directly driven by V-shape electro-thermal actuators to gain active control of the pyrotechnics' ignition condition with rapid response. To improve the system's reliability, the four barriers are axisymmetrically placed in two layers, two barriers for each layer, to constitute a double-layer structure with a thickness of 100 μm. The ignition test results show that the S&A device can prevent the initiator from detonating the lead charge in safety condition. In arming condition, the lead charge will be detonated.     

Shock initiation performance of NTO-based polymer bonded explosive

3-nitro-1,2,4-tri-azol-5-one (NTO) is a high energy insensitive explosive. To study the shock initiation process of NTO-based polymer bonded explosive JEOL-1 (32%octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX), 32% NTO, 28% Al and 8% binder system), the cylinder test, the gap experiments and numerical simulation were carried out. Firstly, we got the detonation velocity (7746 m/s) and the parameters of Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) equation of state (EOS) for detonation product by cylinder test and numerical simulation. Secondly, the Hugoniot curve of unreacted explosive for JEOL-1 was obtained calculating the data of pressure and time at different Lagrangian positions. Then the JWL EOS of unreacted explosive was obtained by utilizing the Hugoniot curve as the reference curve. Finally, we got the pressure growth history of JEOL-1 under shock wave stimulation and the parameters of the ignition and growth reaction rate equation were obtained by the pressure-time curves measured by the shock-initiation gap experiment and numerical simulation. The determined trinomial ignition and growth model (IG model) parameters can be applied to subsequently simulation analysis and design of insensitive ammunition with NTO-based polymer bonded explosive.     

Thermal explosion of a reactive gas mixture at constant pressure for non-uniform and uniform temperature systems

In this study, the approximate and exact solutions for the stationary-state of the solids model with neglecting reactant consumption for both non-uniform and uniform temperature systems were applied on gas ignition under a constant pressure condition. The criticality conditions for a slab, an infinite cylinder, and a sphere are determined and discussed using dimensionless temperatures under constant ambient and surface temperatures for a non-uniform temperature system. Exact solution for a Semenov model with convection heat loss was also presented. The solution of the Semenov problem for constant volume or density as a solid and constant pressure were compared. The critical parameter δ is calculated and compared with those of Frank-Kamenetskii solution values. The validation of the calculated ignition temperatures with other exact solution and experimental results were offered. The relation between critical parameters form Semenov and F.K. models solution was introduced.     

非对称相互依赖下的美日军事同盟机制分析——以奥巴马政府“重返亚太”为视角

2012年1月5日,美国国防部发表了《保持美国的全球领导地位:21世纪的防务重点计划报告》,在"重返亚太"战略的战略背景下,重点针对美国未来的军事力量结构、全球部署态势、军事战略目标等进行了重新规划。新军事战略调整对整个国际格局和地区性大国产生深远影响。随着美国重返亚太的战略调整,军事上的相互依赖程度体现在美日同盟之间尤为突出。本文仅从军事战略角度,运用《权力与相互依赖》中部分理论对其调整下的美日军事同盟机制进行分析。     

试论科技进步与中国国际责任的现实担当

当代科技进步不仅影响着世界格局的变革,也深刻影响着国家的外交行为。随着中国经济实力和科技实力的快速发展,中国更为主动、自信地以大国身份融入国际社会,在几乎所有重要的全球性国际机制中都发挥着积极作用,遵守和履行相应的规则和义务,承担为国际社会提供公共产品以及维护正常合理的国际秩序等国际责任。但随着全球问题的不断增多,国际社会对中国承担更多国际责任的期待也在增多,有些西方国家甚至要求中国承担超出能力的国际责任。面对错综复杂的新形势,中国应该清醒认识自身的国际角色定位,在确保自身崛起的前提下,以科技实力和综合国力承担起力所能及的国际责任,为中国的和平发展提供更广泛的认同基础。