基于能量函数的插值代理模型推广能力评价准则

本文分析了插值型代理模型的特性,提出了影响插值代理模型的推广能力的重要因素是代理模型的振荡特性,分析表明:振荡剧烈的代理模型,其推广能力就弱。为了评价代理模型的推广能力,本文提出基于能量函数方法的评价方法。能量函数方法是通过计算代理模型的一阶和二阶导数,得出代理模型的振荡情况来进行评价。能量函数越高,代理模型的振荡越剧烈,因而其推广能力越差。测试函数表明,能量函数方法在评价代理模型推广能力上是有效的。     

基于作战能力图的兵力部署评估仿真

运用电子地图的发展成果和技术,通过将联合作战兵力转化为具有一定属性值的作战能力像素点,以点阵图形式来显示和研究兵力部署,实现对联合作战兵力部署的评估,为定量化研究联合作战兵力运用提供一种辅助决策的新方法.     

灰色层次模型战术数据链综合性能评估方法

从战术数据链的功能模型出发,考虑影响战术数据链正常功能发挥的各方面因素,基于灰色层次理论,构建了战术数据链综合性能评估指标体系,在此基础上提出了战术数据链综合性能的灰色层次模型。应用实例的过程及结果表明,评估方法简易可行,评估结论相对真实合理,对战术数据链性能评价及新功能的开发具有理论指导意义和应用价值。     

Explaining US and British performance in complex expeditionary operations: The civil-military dimension

A nation's structure and culture of civil-military relations are important and largely overlooked factors in explaining the performance of armed forces involved in complex expeditionary operations. The US model of ‘Huntingtonian’, divided civil-military structures and poor interagency cooperation, makes the US military less suited for complex expeditionary operations. British civil-military relations involve a Defence Ministry that conscientiously integrates military and civilian personnel, as well as extensive interagency cooperation and coordination. This ‘Janowitzean’, integrated form of civil-military relations makes the British military more likely to provide for the planning and implementation of comprehensive campaigns that employ and coordinate all instruments of power available to the state, as well as troops in the field displaying the flexibility and cultural and political understanding that are necessary in complex expeditionary operations.     

The salvo combat model with area fire

This article analyzes versions of the salvo model of missile combat where area fire is used by one or both sides in a battle. Although these models share some properties with the area fire Lanchester model and the aimed fire salvo model, they also display some interesting differences, especially over the course of several salvos. Although the relative size of each force is important with aimed fire, with area fire, it is the absolute size that matters. Similarly, although aimed fire exhibits square law behavior, area fire shows approximately linear behavior. When one side uses area fire and the other uses aimed fire, the model displays a mix of square and linear law behavior. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 652–660, 2013     

Kinetics in counterinsurgency: some influences on soldier combat performance in the 1st Australian Task Force in the Vietnam War

Counterinsurgency is often characterized by large numbers of small fire-fights interspersed with a few larger battles. Heavy firepower contributes to the outcome of the larger battles but the smaller contacts are often fought by infantry without heavy weapons support. Infantry combat performance in these fire-fights is therefore a key concern. It has been fashionable to discuss soldier combat performance in terms of ‘firers’, ‘non-firers’, and ‘posturers’, but we argue that other factors have a greater impact. We provide a detailed statistical analysis of a selection of combat factors, using combat data collected by the 1st Australian Task Force (1ATF) during the Vietnam War. An accepted measure of soldier lethality is the ‘shots per casualty’ ratio. Using this measure we are now able to describe the combat performance of the Australian infantry section in Vietnam in much greater detail than has hitherto been possible.     

考虑气象因素的飞机空战能力评估模型

针对指数法评估飞机空战能力的不足,研究了气象环境对飞机作战效能的影响,分析了综合指数模型中飞机操纵性能、态势感知能力、火力性能受不良气象条件的影响,建立了不良气象环境下的飞机系统空战效能评估模型。最后以3种机型的空战能力评估为例进行计算,验证了所建模型是合理、可行的。     

人工神经网络的装甲兵体系作战协同效果评估

针对基于信息系统的装甲兵体系作战中的协同问题,在综合分析装甲机械化部队体系作战协同过程及信息流程的基础上,构建了基于精确性、有序性、灵活性、时效性等原则的协同效果评估指标体系,采用基于人工神经网络的多指标综合评价方法,建立基于BP神经网络的综合评价模型,并结合实证分析,利用MATLAB软件进行仿真计算,为装甲兵体系作战协同效果评估提供了较好的途径,为装甲兵指挥员更加合理地组织信息化条件下体系作战协同提供决策依据.     

费氏曲线在大型购物中心防火安全评估中的应用

大型购物中心结构复杂,人员密集,火灾隐患较多,提前做好防火安全评估工作十分重要.利用现场调查法、实例分析法等,结合费氏曲线防火安全评估法针对大型购物中心的空阃特性和防火对策作探讨,并对某购物中心进行评估,利用疏散允许时间的人员安全曲线,得出该购物中心在发生火灾时的人员安全曲线.通过对防火安全方法进行分析,体现出费氏曲线在大型购物中心防火安全评估应用中的适用性、发展性.     

基于STAGE平台的转管武器效能仿真

为了分析高射速转管武器在不同战术环境下对典型目标的毁伤效能,开发研究了基于STAGE平台的转管武器效能评估系统。通过设定作战环境、武器系统技术参数、典型目标运行参数等技术指标,可以得到对该目标的毁伤概率,并通过三维实景仿真再现攻击过程。为了达到理想的毁伤效果,可以修改武器技术参数通过仿真实现对典型目标的毁伤效能,对武器平台的配置及武器平台下一步研发目标起到一定的参考。通过多种射频下对0-2 Ma的飞行目标进行拦截的模拟分析,验证了仿真模型可靠性。