An adaptive forecasting algorithm and inventory policy for products with short life cycles

Products with short life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries, such as the personal computer (PC) and mobile phone industries. Traditional forecasting methods and inventory policies can be inappropriate for forecasting demand and managing inventory for a product with a short life cycle because they usually do not take into account the characteristics of the product life cycle. This can result in inaccurate forecasts, high inventory cost, and low service levels. Besides, many forecasting methods require a significant demand history, which is available only after the product has been sold for some time. In this paper, we present an adaptive forecasting algorithm with two characteristics. First, it uses structural knowledge on the product life cycle to model the demand. Second, it combines knowledge on the demand that is available prior to the launch of the product with actual demand data that become available after the introduction of the product to generate and update demand forecasts. Based on the forecasting algorithm, we develop an optimal inventory policy. Since the optimal inventory policy is computationally expensive, we propose three heuristics and show in a numerical study that one of the heuristics generates near‐optimal solutions. The evaluation of our approach is based on demand data from a leading PC manufacturer in the United States, where the forecasting algorithm has been implemented. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Optimal pricing for a short life‐cycle product when customer price‐sensitivity varies over time

Technology products often experience a life‐cycle demand pattern that resembles a diffusion process, with weak demand in the beginning and the end of the life cycle and high demand intensity in between. The customer price‐sensitivity also changes over the life cycle of the product. We study the prespecified pricing decision for a product that exhibits such demand characteristics. In particular, we determine the optimal set of discrete prices and the times to switch from one price to another, when a limited number of price changes are allowed. Our study shows that the optimal prices and switching times show interesting patterns that depend on the product's demand pattern and the change in the customers' price sensitivity over the life cycle of the product. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

对高重频PD雷达的舍脉冲干扰

高重频PD雷达是为解决测速模糊而在机载雷达中广泛采用的一种PD雷达工作模式,从PD雷达的特性来讲,由于带宽比较窄使得噪声干扰能量利用效率不是很高。采用DRFM精确获取雷达信号实施干扰是当前干扰的发展方向,但是对占空比接近50%的高重频PD雷达,采用对低重频PD及中重频PD可行的距离拖引,速度拖引等一系列在雷达信号脉冲串间隔内产生复杂调制的干扰方法是不合适的。主要针对高重频PD雷达重频高、占空比大的特点,提出了一种舍脉冲干扰方法,对DRFM截获的雷达信号进行快速部分转发,间隔一定脉冲数舍弃一个脉冲,改变原雷达信号的脉冲重复周期,使得在频域上产生多个速度欺骗性干扰信号,并通过仿真验证了干扰的有效性。     

一类二次微分系统在三次多项式扰动下的极限环估计

计算了一类二次Hamilton微分系统的一阶Mel’nikov函数,通过此方法对该系统在三次多项式扰动下分岔的极限环个数进行了估计。     

质漏对联合循环化学发动机性能的影响

分析存在有限速率传质和质漏损失的联合循环化学发动机性能,导出功率、效率最佳关系,最大功率及其相应效率,以及最大效率及其相应功率     

柴油机燃油喷射系统故障的数值模拟计算

采用数值模拟的方法对燃油喷射系统的工作过程作了简要的理论分析 .以典型的 135型柴油机燃油喷射系统为研究对象 ,在合理假设的基础上 ,建立了燃油喷射系统的数学模型 ,并应用特征线法和改进欧拉法 ,对其工作过程进行了初步的数值求解计算 ,模拟了燃油喷射系统部分常见故障时的工况     

高原环境对军用油料装备柴油动力性能影响分析

针对青藏高原特殊地理环境和气候条件特点,通过某大型群车加油车在高原地区的训练使用,分析海拔高度与大气压力、空气密度和温度的对应关系,探讨了在高原环境条件下使用油料装备其柴油动力的动力性、经济性及低温起动性能受到的影响,提出了相应的改进措施。     

压剪加载下炸药装药中剪切带形成与发展模型

研究了在压剪加载下炸药这类粘塑性介质中剪切带的形成与发展。提出了一种反映炸药装药中剪切带形成和发展的计算方法,并分析了剪切带发展变化特性与炸药起爆的关系     

柴油机超小型水滴形预燃室的研究

针对12V180柴油机原球形预燃室喷嘴因热负荷过大而产生热裂和断裂脱落的问题,进行了理论分析和实验研究,提出了一种新型的预燃室-超小型水滴形预燃室．实验证明使用该预燃室,可以大大降低喷嘴的热负荷,提高喷嘴使用的可靠性．     

闭式循环柴油机技术综述

基于采用海水吸收的闭式循环柴油机系统,综合分析了系统实现的一般原则和目前的技术状况,并提出了系统实现中存在的问题及其解决的思路．