基于三阶段过程模型的军交运输体系建模

信息化条件下军交运输体系复杂性问题日益凸显,军交运输体系建设已经进入能力“涌现”的新阶段。本文在分析军交运输体系概念内涵和体系特征的基础上,运用体系层次划分模型和三阶段过程模型,分别从定义阶段、抽象阶段和实施阶段对军交运输体系建模方法进行了研究,搭建了体系建模总体框架,建立了军交运输体系概念抽象模型,并对军交运输体系问题建模仿真方法进行了分析,为全新规划军交运输体系建设提供了新的途径。     

基于维纳过程金属化膜电容器的剩余寿命预测

金属化膜电容器是惯性约束聚变激光装置能源系统最重要的元器件,对个体电容器的剩余寿命进行有效的预测对整个装置的可靠性水平有着重要的影响.为有效地预测个体电容器的剩余寿命,提出了融合单个电容器性能退化数据与先验性能退化数据信息的预测方法.采用Wiener过程对其性能退化过程进行建模,并根据先验退化数据信息构造参数的先验分布...     

网络化指挥信息系统建设的软件构件技术

研究了基于构件技术建设网络化指挥信息系统的方法,以适应随需应变和快速开发这一新的作战要求。给出了框架、构件、扩展点等基本概念,提出了基于构件的指控系统框架、业务流程、系统重组方法,讨论了通用构件模型、共享信息模型、流程控制、构件获取和数据服务机制等系统建设的关键技术,探讨了指挥控制信息系统的建设途径,为发展未来指挥控制信息系统的建设提出了一种新思路。     

Monitoring poisson count data with probability control limits when sample sizes are time varying

This article considers the problem of monitoring Poisson count data when sample sizes are time varying without assuming a priori knowledge of sample sizes. Traditional control charts, whose control limits are often determined before the control charts are activated, are constructed based on perfect knowledge of sample sizes. In practice, however, future sample sizes are often unknown. Making an inappropriate assumption of the distribution function could lead to unexpected performance of the control charts, for example, excessive false alarms in the early runs of the control charts, which would in turn hurt an operator's confidence in valid alarms. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of probability control limits, which are determined based on the realization of sample sizes online. The conditional probability that the charting statistic exceeds the control limit at present given that there has not been a single alarm before can be guaranteed to meet a specified false alarm rate. Simulation studies show that our proposed control chart is able to deliver satisfactory run length performance for any time‐varying sample sizes. The idea presented in this article can be applied to any effective control charts such as the exponentially weighted moving average or cumulative sum chart. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 625–636, 2013     

粉末燃料冲压发动机内镁粉尘云层流燃烧模型

对粉末燃料冲压发动机预燃室内镁粉尘云燃烧过程进行了研究,建立了镁粉尘云的一维层流预混燃烧模型。研究表明,镁粉尘云层流火焰传播很稳定,燃烧过程中火焰结构基本不变,燃烧区很薄,而预热区厚度约是燃烧区的2-3倍。粉尘云中镁颗粒的蒸发和气相镁与氧气的均相反应是产生火焰的直接原因,也是火焰得以传播的关键。预热区气相温度升高主要靠燃烧区气体的导热和扩散过来的气相镁与氧气反应释放热量,而预热区颗粒相温度升高主要靠气相对其对流传热。分析了各参数对粉尘云燃烧的影响,颗粒相对浓度对粉尘云燃烧的影响比较复杂,在浓度较低的情况下,增大颗粒相对浓度有利于粉尘云快速燃烧;而在浓度较高的情况下,增大颗粒相对浓度则不利于粉尘云快速燃烧。随颗粒粒径的增加,火焰传播速度减小,火焰温度升高,预热区厚度增大。火焰传播速度和火焰温度随粉尘云初温增加线性增长,预热区厚度随粉尘云初温增加抛物线增长。数值模拟与文献中试验结果的变化趋势相一致。     

水下航行器燃烧室两相流燃烧数值模拟

提出水下航行器燃烧室中两相流燃烧数值模拟方法.采用k-ε双方程湍流模型、涡耗散燃烧模型、离散相液滴模型进行数值模拟,得到单组元推进剂燃烧的速度场、温度场、浓度场的分布.研究了喷嘴压差、环境背压对燃烧的影响,得出了一定范围内,增大喷嘴压差、增大环境背压可以增强燃烧效果的结论.     

熵权灰色关联分析法的坦克夜间射击目标选择

针对夜间战场上坦克目标威胁评估问题,结合多目标决策问题,将熵权和灰色关联分析法相结合,提出一种基于熵权灰色关联分析的坦克夜间射击目标选择模型,并详细给出了该算法的思想、算法.该方法克服了传统评估算法中主观赋值的缺陷,最后利用实例证明了该方法的有效性.     

基于灰色模糊综合评价的网络作战能力评估

根据网络作战力量的组成和作战技术特点,深入分析影响网络作战能力的主要因素,科学构建网络作战能力评估指标体系,采用AHP/熵值法确定指标权重,运用灰色模糊综合评判法,构建实用管用的网络作战能力评估模型,有效解决网络作战力量的作战能力评估动态性、模糊性问题。     

THE 2005 NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE

The 2005 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) failed to produce any agreed action plan for addressing nuclear disarmament or proliferation. Detailed discussions and negotiations on such a plan were much curtailed because of procedural wrangles. This article describes the evolution of the conference and argues that changes in the international political environment and problems inherent in the revised NPT review process agreed at its 1995 Extension Conference contributed to the meager outcome. The main issues raised by delegations in their plenary statements, working papers, and the limited time available for interactive discussion are summarized, and three perspectives are offered on the reasons for the lack of any substantive product. Finally, the implications of that failure for the NPT, its review process, the wider regime for international nuclear governance, and nuclear disarmament, nuclear nonproliferation, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy are examined.     

FP GA软件测试过程及管理

船舶领域的FPGA软件测试严重滞后于应用增长的速度,部分型号甚至未将其纳入测试范畴。在研制过程中,由FPGA故障导致的修改调试已成为影响进度和增加成本的瓶颈。因此,针对FGPA软件特点及其测试的现状,对其测试过程、测试模型和过程管理进行研究,并给出完整的过程管理体系。通过采用规范化、有序化、系统化、面向工程的、面向任务的文档及配套管理手段进行正确引导、组织和实施测试活动,持续改进测试流程中各个阶段工作质量和效用,及早及时地发现和关闭开发过程中存在的缺陷,提高设计和测试的沟通效率,最终保证FPGA产品的质量,提升客户的满意度。