The Management of Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal

Pakistan, the fastest growing nuclear weapon state in the world, has established over the last decade a nuclear management system it holds to be “foolproof.” Despite the explosion of radical groups challenging the writ of the state, it dismisses concerns by critics that its nuclear weapons are not safe and secure as “preposterous” and an attempt to “malign” the state. This article examines Pakistan's nuclear management system in four functional areas: command-and-control, physical security, nuclear surety, and doctrine. It describes what is publicly known in each area, identifies areas of omission and inadequacy in each one, and examines several premises of the nuclear program the author considers to be unfounded. Comparing these deficiencies in Pakistan's nuclear management system to the current problems plaguing the US nuclear management system, the author concludes that complacency and unfounded confidence in the efficacy of such programs, if not addressed and corrected, could lead to a future nuclear catastrophe in South Asia.     

空军网络化指挥信息系统作战效能评估指标体系构建

针对目前网络化指挥信息系统作战效能评估指标体系不完善、且缺乏分项指标计算方法模型等问题,从网络化作战对指挥信息系统的作战需求出发,研究构建了空军网络化指挥信息系统的作战效能评估指标体系,并提出了分项指标概念内涵和计算模型与方法,可为指挥信息系统研制提供参考和支撑,为其作战效能的客观评估提供指标体系和模型方法。     

‘Blackmailing the army’ – ‘Strategic Military Refusal’ as policy and doctrine enforcement: the formation of a new security agent

The study shows how ‘strategic military refusal’ in Israel developed as a rational and institutional means to influence security policies. As opposed to the perspective that sees military refusal as a spontaneous individual act, the study illustrates how organizations operate to distribute military refusal in order to pressure decision-makers to change their military policies. This strategy has proven to be effective when the military is involved with groups that threaten it with refusal – which threatens the military's operational ability and its official and apolitical image. These include soldiers whose civilian authorities, rather than their military commanders, are perceived as an epistemic authority regarding security issues. The case study refers to the impact of strategic military refusal in Israel on security policies and the military doctrine. This was influenced by leftist groups, which, although they belonged to the parliamentary opposition, had dominant presence in the military ranks. Furthermore, the study examines the effect of the use of strategic military refusal on the model of military recruitment.     

基于CAS理论的海上编队作战指挥优化控制问题研究

针对当前提高基于信息系统的体系作战能力客观要求,运用复杂自适应系统理论分析了信息化条件下的海上编队作战指挥控制问题,提出了基于CAS理论的海上编队作战指挥优化控制结构模型,并给出了信息化条件下编队指挥所的作战指挥决策流程,从而为有效构建信息化编队作战指挥体系、提高作战指挥能力奠定了理论基础。     

考虑输入受限的高超声速飞行器预设性能控制

针对考虑输入幅值与速率受限的高超声速飞行器跟踪性能问题,提出基于受限指令滤波器的预设性能控制方案。为了提高系统瞬态和稳态性能,设计预设性能反演控制器,并通过设计新的性能函数使得跟踪误差超调量更小。引入指令滤波器来处理反演控制器设计中难以求导的问题。针对输入受限问题,构造一种受限指令滤波器来约束系统控制律,保证控制输入满足幅值和速率的限制要求,并进行相应的理论证明。另外,考虑系统参数不确定性与外界干扰,采用线性扩张状态观测器进行观测并补偿。基于Lyapunov稳定理论证明系统的所有跟踪误差最终一致有界。通过仿真验证该方法的有效性。     

基于禁忌搜索算法的指挥控制系统网络组织优化方法

基于复杂网络的拓扑结构优化理论与禁忌搜索算法,结合指挥控制系统的特点,建立了优化最优指挥与控制系统网络结构（Command and Control Architecture Network,C2AN）模型,并以复杂网络的网络效率和网络成本分别描述C2AN中的信息传播效率及构建C2AN的资源消耗,建立优化的目标函数,通过禁忌搜索算法获得了最优的C2AN。最后通过仿真实例,分析了最优C2AN生成过程及其基本统计特征。     

反导作战指控系统对TBM毁伤效果评估*

初步研究了反导作战指控系统对于TBM毁伤效果评估的过程和依据。以动能杀伤器（KKV）为研究对象,首先分析了KKV脱靶量和杀伤模型,在此基础上,对反导指控系统对TBM的毁伤准则和毁伤效果评估进行了研究并给出了一般TBM毁伤判断流程,最后举例以KKV导引头作用距离和噪声对脱靶量的影响分析研究了达到直接碰撞杀伤的条件。     

基于Petri网的装备维修保障指挥过程建模与性能优化分析

Petri网是一种非形式化的建模方法,具有严格的定义和强大的数学分析能力,适合对同步、并发、资源共享的系统建模。利用Petri网对战术装备维修保障指挥过程进行建模,可以快速准确的描述保障指挥的流程,进而可对指挥过程进行分析,找出影响系统效率的环节加以改造和优化。本文通过对保障指挥过程的分析,建立了基于Petri网的维修保障指挥过程模型,并依据模型进行合理化简,根据假设的实例数据对比分析了现有和简化后的指挥过程的平均延迟时间,从而为战术装备维修保障指挥过程的优化提供依据。     

基于GSPN的编队网络化防空指挥流程研究

为了提高编队指挥员在信息化海战中的作战指挥效率和应变能力,利用广义随机Petri网与马尔可夫链的等价关系,得到一种Petri网与马尔可夫链理论相结合的指挥流程时间性能分析的新方法,通过对模型进行分析与求解,得出了舰艇编队网络化防空作战指挥流程活动的准确作战周期,从而为指挥流程的优化提供有力的支撑,对评估系统效能水平也具有重要指导意义。     

基于GIS的陆军野战防空指挥自动化系统分析

从陆军面临的空中威胁目标出发,分析了陆军野战防空的主要特点及对指挥自动化系统的要求,提出了基于地理信息系统(Geographic Information System:GIS)的陆军野战防空指挥自动化系统的设想,并建立了基本的结构模型.最后,根据系统论的思想更深层地说明了陆军野战防空指挥自动化系统建设的重要性.