The myth of Afghan electoral democracy: the irregularities of the 2014 presidential election

ABSTRACT

This article systematically assesses the 2014 Afghanistan Presidential Election, the first transfer of power from President Hamid Karzai to an elected successor, using provincial voting data as well as explicit data from polling centers. The analysis finds unusual voting results in the April election, where no candidate received 50%+1 votes required by the Afghan constitution, versus the voting results realized for the June ‘runoff election.’ As in other Afghan voting analyses, this article finds voting based on ethno-linguistic preferences, and interestingly found Dr. Ashraf Ghani receiving almost all the swing votes in the runoff election even though the other leading candidate from the April election all endorsed Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. More importantly, however, the research presented here clearly finds extremely strange voting patterns. For example, the polling data center analysis finds 606 polling places where Ghani received all 600 votes and Abdullah received none and another 900 polling centers that gave virtually all its votes to Ghani. These results in combination with other analyses raise the very real possibility that the election results were illegitimate. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of the research to future Afghan elections and their processes as well as to the long-standing conflict in the country.     

Counterinsurgency force ratio: strategic utility or nominal necessity

As a consequence of intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan, force ratio for counterinsurgency (COIN) has come under increased scrutiny. Reduced to its essence, the issue is simply, ‘How many troops does it take to get the job done?’ This answer has been sought by the US military, academia, and think tanks. There have been numerous responses, culminating in several ‘plug-and-play’ equations for minimum force ratios in COIN operations. Due to the impossibility of determining precisely how many insurgent forces there are, it has become common to base force ratios on the population of the country. In the realm of policy, the question above is posed as, ‘How many of our troops does it take to get the job done?’     

基于秘密共享的卫星网络组密钥管理方案

针对卫星网络组密钥管理的重要性,提出了一个可认证的基于门限秘密共享的组密钥管理方案．结合卫星网络的动态拓扑结构特点,将地面站作为组成员的身份注册中心,以实现对组成员的身份认证,确保节点的合法性．为了提高组密钥的生成效率,选取≠一1颗可见时间长的卫星构建组密钥份额分发中心,降低了组密钥联合生成过程中的通信量．组密钥协商无需安全信道,节省了系统资源．安全性及性能分析表明,该方案不仅具有较强的安全性,而且还具有计算和通信量小的优点．参数分析表明,门限值k与组密钥更新周期T是影响方案安全性的2个重要因子．     

CORBA构件模型在指控系统中的应用

针对现有指控系统由于功能模块化设计导致模块间耦合性强、复用性差,系统开发效率低以及升级困难等问题,分析了应用CORBA构件模型(CCM)开发指控系统软件的可行性,建立了CCM构件与分布式中间件集成模板框架,并以WorkBench开发环境为例,给出了应用CCM进行指控系统构件开发、打包、部署等具体实现过程.实际应用表明:CCM在指控系统的有效应用,能够实现系统基于可重用构件设计的开发,不仅提高了系统灵活性、重用性和可配置性,而且简化了系统开发流程,缩短了开发周期,降低了开发成本.     

模糊综合评价法在消防应急救援指挥平台建设中的应用研究

消防应急救援指挥平台建设项目具有涉及随机因素多、适用环境复杂、使用技术先进、投资较大等特征,在分析研究该项目的基础上,构建了基于模糊综合评价法的项目风险评价模型,并应用该模型对消防应急救援指挥平台建设项目进行了风险评价,得出了相应的风险水平,证明了该项目的可行性,提出了降低风险的措施.     

全面把握铸牢听党指挥这个强军之魂的着力点

建设一支听党指挥、能打胜仗、作风优良的人民军队,是党在新形势下的强军目标。听党指挥是灵魂,决定军队建设的政治方向。铸牢听党指挥这个强军之魂,夯实思想基础是根本,落实根本制度是保证,加强干部队伍建设是关键,弘扬优良作风是重点。     

应急指挥决策方案的模糊综合评价研究

针对灾害现场应急指挥决策方案优选问题,提出了方案优选评价的可行性、时效性和安全性指标,应用模糊数学的相关理论构建了模糊综合评价的数学模型,采取专家调查打分法解决了方案评价影响因素的权重值及其评价等级的隶属度的确定问题,并采取加权平均算法对权重集A和影响因素评判隶属度矩阵R进行运算,得到的结果不仅反映了所有因素权值的影响,而且保留了单因素评判的全部信息,能够体现"模糊综合评价"的实质。     

雷达目标高分辨距离像的特征提取及识别方法

本文首先应用ＴＬＳ－ＥＳＰＲＩＴ算法提取光学区高分辨雷达目标散射中心位置信息,并提出了“基于散射中心位置的相关匹配”目标识别算法,而后,证明了该算法相关匹配系数与所选择的基底无关以及算法的稳定性问题。最后,给出了五种飞机缩比模型的实验结果。     

指控领域模块化本体开发方法

部队指控系统的广泛应用对指控训练提出更高要求。仿真系统开始越来越多地应用于训练中,为之提供真实的指控训练环境。部队模拟训练系统中实装指控系统与基于仿真的训练支撑环境的互操作性问题是一个急待解决的问题。指控领域本体用于对实装指控系统与基于仿真的训练支撑环境间命令、请求和报告等交互信息进行形式化语义描述,解决二者在语义层次的互操作性问题。指控领域模块化本体开发方法对现有开发方法进行了改进,更加符合本体构建原则,主要体现在指控领域模块化本体的量化评价和指控领域本体模块的集成这两个方面。     

打造现代化公安消防铁军的理论与实践

分析了消防部队的职业特点,阐述了打造现代化公安消防铁军要把握的几个关键要素,提出打造现代化消防铁军就是要加快转变部队战斗力生成模式,着力提升部队整体战斗能力和水平。从指挥人才培养、业务训练、装备和信息化建设、战斗精神培育等四个方面对打造现代化公安消防铁军的理论与实践进行了深入探讨。