指数型产品可靠性验收试验的一种贝叶斯方法

采用贝叶斯方法 ,利用大量的历史数据和工程技术人员的丰富经验确定先验分布 ,制定出验收试验的一种新方案 .按照这一方案 ,在确保产品质量的前提下 ,可大大节省试验时间 ,从而得到十分可观的经济效益 .     

基于神经网络的导弹系统辨识

详细地讨论了神经网络在导弹动态特性中的应用 ,利用神经网络的万能拟合能力进行了神经网络的训练和仿真 ,为导弹离散控制系统的设计提供了有效的工程数据 ,给导弹系统的系统辨识提供了一条新的方法和思路     

美国陆军作战指挥系统

自海湾战争以来的局部战争,信息作战改变并主导了现代战场。描述了美陆军作战指挥系统及其支援系统、通信系统的组成、基本功能和发展前景。     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

The political economy of drones

This paper provides a political economy analysis of the evolution of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), or ‘drones’ in the USA. Focus is placed on the interplay between the polity and private economic influences, and their impact on the trajectory of political, economic, and military outcomes. We identify the initial formation of the drone industry, trace how the initial relationships between the military and the private sector expanded over time, and discuss present relationships. Understanding the historical evolution of UAV technology, as well as the major players in the industry today, is important for ongoing policy debates regarding the use of drones both domestically and internationally.     

Initiating insurgencies abroad: French plans to ‘chouannise’ Britain and Ireland, 1793–1798

Secret French plans to launch guerrilla-style raids on the British Isles devised in the spring of 1796 were referred to as ‘chouanneries’. The name and concept behind these small-war operations were modelled on the irregular tactics used by the Chouan rebels in the Vendée, which the French state army had brutally quashed, but some wished to transfer into their institutional practice. Part of France's ongoing military strategy in the war against Britain, which included fomenting insurrection in Ireland, these irregular operations were to be manned partially by pardoned deserters and released convicts and prisoners of war. Of these, only Tate's brief invasion of Wales in 1797 was realised, but the surviving plans provide insightful historical lessons into an Anglophobic mindset shared by a small network of practitioners and policy deciders on the effectiveness of such shock and awe tactics. Largely motivated by the desire to take revenge for Britain's support of counter-revolutionaries in the Vendée, these plans could more aptly be referred to as counter-‘chouanneries’.     

Poachers turned gamekeepers: A study of the guerrilla phenomenon in Spain, 1808–1840

This article modifies the associations made by historians and political scientists of Spanish guerrilla warfare with revolutionary insurgency. First, it explains how the guerrilla phenomenon moved from a Leftist to a reactionary symbol. Second, it compares the insurgency and counter-insurgency features of the Carlist War (1833–1840) with those of the better-known Peninsular War (1808–1814). Third, it shows how erstwhile guerrilla leaders during the Carlist War made their expertise available to the counter-insurgency, in a socio-economic as well as military setting. This article revises the social banditry paradigm in nineteenth-century Spain in the under-researched context of Europe bloodiest nineteenth-century civil war.     

基于贝叶斯网络的装甲目标战术企图推理模型构建

以贝叶斯网络理论为基础,分析基于贝叶斯网络的目标企图推理框架,从目标状态、目标性质、战场环境和战术特性4个方面提取节点,在分析这4个节点拓扑结构的基础上,构建了装甲目标战术企图推理的贝叶斯网络拓扑结构。     

美国网络安全战略管理体系分析

文章从美国政府颁布的政策文件、法律法规和各机构部门的职能三个方面,对美国网络安全战略管理体系进行了介绍和分析。     

科学管理、精益管理与精确作战工程保障研究

设计是作战行动筹划的重要步骤,精确工程保障需要对工程保障行动进行精密的设计和精确管理与控制。科学管理采用科学实验的方法,通过劳动方法标准化和差别计件工资制度,有效提高了工作效率,其基本原理经过百余年的实际检验,被证明是一个成熟有效的管理方法。借鉴科学管理理论,需要对工程保障行动进行动作研究,进而研究工程保障行动的作业标准,以期提高其保障效率。精益管理是在科学管理在新的历史时期的发展与改进,它使用了准时制、零库存、均衡生产、持续改进等先进的管理理念和六西格玛管理、成组技术等先进技术,为基于信息系统体系作战的工程保障能力生成提供了有益的借鉴,可加深我们对精确工程保障的理解,促进精确工程保障研究的可操作性。