Safety in international security: a view point from the practice of accident investigation

While security points to a deliberate harming of humans and/or the environment, safety refers to unintended damage. In this view point, I will analyse how the distinction between safety and security matters in the practice of accident investigation and I will argue that the division between the fields is problematic for the assessment of security-related safety risks. Drawing on the case of the our accident investigation into the downing of flight MH17 above Ukraine in 2014, I highlight key dilemmas the Dutch Safety Board dealt with.     

纳米技术与国家安全

纳米技术的兴起为全世界带来了一场全新的科技变革。纳米技术在信息、化工、医药、农业、环保、航空航天等众多领域具有重要的应用价值和广阔的发展前景,被誉为21世纪的三大高新技术之一。然而,经过近五十余年的发展,纳米技术的"双刃剑"效应逐渐显现,纳米技术的滥用对国家安全可能产生的风险正在日益积聚,集中体现在人类健康与生态环境、国家经济安全、国防安全等领域。     

ANALYSING QUITS AND SEPARATIONS FROM THE ROYAL NAVY

Manning difficulties and retention of skilled personnel is a timely issue in the British armed forces, and especially in the all‐volunteer Royal Navy. Allied with difficulties of matching personnel numbers and posts, significant skill mismatches can take a long time to eradicate, with obvious financial and operational penalties. In the light of these factors, a holistic understanding of the exit behaviour of naval personnel is vital for naval manpower planners. This paper analyses ratings’ voluntary (quits) and involuntary (separation) exit patterns from the Royal Navy using an independent competing risks hazard regression analysis framework. The results show that both voluntary and involuntary exits are pro cyclical with respect to macroeconomic and labour market conditions for both male and female ratings. Male ratings are more likely to quit or separate due to a lack of promotion to higher ranks as compared with females. Male ratings are also more likely to quit as a result of a hectic operational tempo when compared with their female counterparts. Frequency of sea/shore deployments also seems to exert a significant effect with respect to quits and separation outcomes of both genders. In terms of marital status married males are less likely to quit compared with their unmarried male counterparts, whereas the opposite is the case for female ratings.     

When are observed failures more informative than observed survivals?

A framework involving independent competing risks permits observing failures due to a specific cause and failures due to a competing cause, which constitute survival times from the cause of primary interest. Is observing more failures more informative than observing survivals? Intuitively, due to the definitiveness of failures, the answer seems to be the former. However, it has been shown before that this intuition holds when estimating the mean but not the failure rate of the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution for the failure rate. In this article, we address this question at a more general level. We show that for a certain class of distributions failures can be more informative than survivals for prediction of life length and vice versa for some others. We also show that for a large class of lifetime models, failure is less informative than survival for estimating the proportional hazards parameter with gamma, Jeffreys, and uniform priors. We further show that, for this class of lifetime models, on average, failure is more informative than survival for parameter estimation and for prediction. These results imply that the inferential purpose and properties of the lifetime distribution are germane for conducting life tests. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

关于控制使用水成膜泡沫灭火剂的思考

水成膜泡沫灭火剂（AFFF）在扑救B类火灾中发挥重要作用,但其含有的C8类氟碳表面活性剂具有环境难降解性和生物累积性,对生态系统和人体健康具有危害作用.为此,关注消防行业带来的环境污染问题、开展AFFF环境安全管理研究具有重要的理论和现实意义.介绍了传统水成膜泡沫灭火剂的组成、应用,阐述了传统水成膜泡沫灭火剂引起的环境污染和人体健康问题,提出了新型绿色水成膜泡沫灭火剂的开发思路,以及水成膜泡沫灭火剂的环境安全管理对策.     

竞争失效产品恒应力加速寿命试验优化新方法

对加速寿命试验设计优化的相关知识进行研究分析,确定以竞争失效产品恒应力加速寿命试验为应用背景。在对加速寿命试验统计分析深入研究的基础上,通过分析方案要素、约束条件等建立优化目标函数,提出基于模拟退火算法的优化方法和具体实现思路。最后通过实例验证方法的可行性和实用性。     

政府适度负债规模的研究——从欧洲主权债务危机到中国地方政府负债风险谈起

在现代经济环境下政府倘若仅依靠自身财力,既无外债又无内债的发展经济已显不足;但凡经济发展较快的国家无不举债,依靠举债借助外力不仅能促进且能加快经济发展。然而近年西欧爆发主权债务危机,我国中央地方两级负债暗藏隐性风险,地方政府融资平台风险甚是暴露,也从另一个角度警示政府负债是一把双刃剑。而根据自身实力与未来发展预期适度负债才是最佳选择,负债不足与过度负债都是不可取的。本文通过对政府适度负债标准的研究,为各级政府提出一个适度负债标准或控制临界点,同时也为各级政府根据此标准对自身负债水平提出相应的预警及对策,从而保持经济的稳定发展。     

中小城市招商引资项目消防安全监管对策探讨

以天津矢崎配件有限公司沧州分公司火灾隐患的成因为例,阐述中小城市招商引资项目在消防安全监管方面存在的主要问题,并提出加强招商引资项目消防安全监管的对策。     

相依风险下的超额赔款再保险

本文通过求二次效用函数的货币期望效用的最大值来确定自留额,认为索赔次数服从二元泊松分布,超额赔款再保险的保费按期望值原理进行计算。     

水运液化气火灾隐患分析与对策

在介绍液化气主要成分、主要特性以及贮运方式的基础上,分析了水运液化气的火灾特点。从装卸过程存在点火源、液化气泄漏、惰化处理不彻底、船体老化等几方面分析探讨了目前我国水运液化气存在的火灾隐患,并从消防设计、船整体热处理技术、安全监控技术、船整体耐火条件、安全管理、初起泄漏事故的处理等方面提出了预防对策,为船运公司的安全运营提供参考。