基于复合失效模式的寿命分布检验方法

产品往往受随机失效和耗损失效两种模式的双重影响,因此,构造指数威布尔分布表征该类产品的失效规律。首先,用图检验法对该类产品的寿命数据进行初步检验;其次,研究了该类产品寿命数据的极大似然估计的求解方法,进一步用伽方检验方法对寿命分布类进行了检验;最后,通过工程仿真例子说明了该方法的具体操作流程,最终验证了方法的正确性。     

虚拟射击试验中的航迹融合方法

针对高炮武器系统虚拟射击试验中存在的航迹融合问题,研究了航迹在虚拟射击试验中的融合方法。分别通过虚实资源静态分析和动态分析,明确了试验中各试验要素内涵和虚实资源间信息交互的内容。由于虚实资源间交互的信息内容不同,易产生数据格式、信息理解等方面的不一致,且集中表现在数据处理上。因此,从空间一致性维护和时间一致性维护两个方面,给出了航迹在虚拟射击试验中的融合方法。     

Reforming China’s defense industry

ABSTRACT

Even with sizable economic inputs, access to foreign technologies, and considerable political will, China, up until the late 1990s, experienced only limited success when it came to the local design, development, and manufacture of advanced conventional weapons. Not surprisingly, therefore, reforming the local defense industry in order to upgrade its technology base and manufacturing capabilities and to make armaments production more efficient and cost-effective has long preoccupied the Chinese leadership. The fact that most of these efforts had little positive impact on the country’s military technological and industrial capabilities only encouraged Beijing to experiment with additional reforms in the hopes of finally getting it right.     

复杂战争系统建模与仿真需求及ABMS方法

复杂战争系统与一般的物理系统相比,建模与仿真条件、要求与过程有着明显差异。在论述战争系统及其复杂性的基础上,分析了复杂战争系统一般的建模与仿真方法及存在的问题,重点分析研究了基于Agent的建模与仿真(ABMS)方法。将ABMS方法应用于信息化战场多传感器仿真演示,验证了其对复杂战争系统建模与仿真的可行性与有效性。     

12150L发动机系统工作过程计算

介绍了12150L发动机系统工作过程模拟计算方法的研究成果,包括发动机燃烧、喷油、进排气和废气引射抽尘过程的数学建模,耦合计算等.     

利用验前信息时，飞行器试验鉴定技术研究—— 一次现场试验下的精度鉴定方法

研究了具有验前信息下的飞行器落点精度的鉴定问题,适用于只作一次现场飞行试验的情况。文中给出了鉴定方案,并进行了风险计算和信度分析。对于一次试验结果与验前信息的一致性．给出了验证方法。本文所提供的理论方法,可用于一般武器装备系统的试验定型和鉴定。     

确定舰艇备件携带量的贝叶斯方法

本文针对一些舰艇的小子样特点,推出了确定其备件携带量的贝叶斯方法。     

Dynamic learning,pricing, and ordering by a censored newsvendor

We address the problem of determining optimal ordering and pricing policies in a finite‐horizon newsvendor model with unobservable lost sales. The demand distribution is price‐dependent and involves unknown parameters. We consider both the cases of perishable and nonperishable inventory. A very general class of demand functions is studied in this paper. We derive the optimal ordering and pricing policies as unique functions of the stocking factor (which is a linear transformation of the safety factor). An important expression is obtained for the marginal expected value of information. As a consequence, we show when lost sales are unobservable, with perishable inventory the optimal stocking factor is always at least as large as the one given by the single‐period model; however, if inventory is nonperishable, this result holds only under a strong condition. This expression also helps to explain why the optimal stocking factor of a period may not increase with the length of the problem. We compare this behavior with that of a full information model. We further examine the implications of the results to the special cases when demand uncertainty is described by additive and multiplicative models. For the additive case, we show that if demand is censored, the optimal policy is to order more as well as charge higher retail prices when compared to the policies in the single‐period model and the full information model. We also compare the optimal and myopic policies for the additive and multiplicative models. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

面向文本数据库管理系统的授权模型

构造新的授权模型以满足面向对象、语义、文本数据模型等对授权的需求是当前数据库技术的重要研究课题之一。本文提出了一个基于复杂对象数据模型的、以权主群及权体簇作为授权单位的多级授权模型,即MAM模型,并讨论了面向文本数据库授权系统的基本功能及基本操作。     

When are observed failures more informative than observed survivals?

A framework involving independent competing risks permits observing failures due to a specific cause and failures due to a competing cause, which constitute survival times from the cause of primary interest. Is observing more failures more informative than observing survivals? Intuitively, due to the definitiveness of failures, the answer seems to be the former. However, it has been shown before that this intuition holds when estimating the mean but not the failure rate of the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution for the failure rate. In this article, we address this question at a more general level. We show that for a certain class of distributions failures can be more informative than survivals for prediction of life length and vice versa for some others. We also show that for a large class of lifetime models, failure is less informative than survival for estimating the proportional hazards parameter with gamma, Jeffreys, and uniform priors. We further show that, for this class of lifetime models, on average, failure is more informative than survival for parameter estimation and for prediction. These results imply that the inferential purpose and properties of the lifetime distribution are germane for conducting life tests. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013