初始先验分布未知条件下的DLMR及其Bayes预测

讨论了具有无信息初始先验分布的矩阵变量动态线性模型 (简记为DLMR)及其Bayes预测 ,利用MDIP方法 ,就尺度方差阵∑已知和未知两种情况 ,分别给出模拟初始状态参数(θ1 |D0 )和 (θ1 ,∑ |D0 )的无信息先验分布 ,进而给出其Bayes预测。     

Testing or fault-finding for reliability growth: A missile destructive-test example

A new piece of equipment has been purchased in a lot of size m. Some of the items can be used in destructive testing before the item is put into use. Testing uncovers faults which can be removed from the remaining pieces of equipment in the lot. If t < m pieces of equipment are tested, then those that remain, m₁ = m − t, have reduced fault incidence and are more reliable than initially, but m₁ may be too small to be useful, or than is desirable. In this paper models are studied to address this question: given the lot size m, how to optimize by choice of t the effectiveness of the pieces of equipment remaining after the test. The models used are simplistic and illustrative; they can be straightforwardly improved. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 623–637, 1997     

复杂网络影响力极大化快速评估算法

分析复杂网络中影响力极大化问题,设计一种新的启发式算法框架。针对信息传递中节点的交互方式进行分析,给出节点在任意时刻处于信息接收态的概率。通过期望计算得到种子节点集传播影响力的近似估计,实现集群影响力快速计算,进而得到基于序列采样的影响力极大化快速评估算法。特别地,对于六个来自不同领域的真实网络上的影响力极大化问题进行了研究,仿真结果表明：该方法能够高效识别网络中具有重要传播影响力的节点集,在三种常见度量准则下的表现均明显优于三种影响力极大化问题基准算法。     

Stochastic production capacity: A bane or a boon for quick response supply chains?

The quick response (QR) system that can cope with demand volatility by shortening lead time has been well studied in the literature. Much of the existing literature assumes implicitly or explicitly that the manufacturers under QR can always meet the demand because the production capacity is always sufficient. However, when the order comes with a short lead time under QR, availability of the manufacturer's production capacity is not guaranteed. This motivates us to explore QR in supply chains with stochastic production capacity. Specifically, we study QR in a two-echelon supply chain with Bayesian demand information updating. We consider the situation where the manufacturer's production capacity under QR is uncertain. We first explore how stochastic production capacity affects supply chain decisions and QR implementation. We then incorporate the manufacturer's ability to expand capacity into the model. We explore how the manufacturer determines the optimal capacity expansion decision, and the value of such an ability to the supply chain and its agents. Finally, we extend the model to the two-stage two-ordering case and derive the optimal ordering policy by dynamic programming. We compare the single-ordering and two-ordering cases to generate additional managerial insights about how ordering flexibility affects QR when production capacity is stochastic. We also explore the transparent supply chain and find that our main results still hold.     

Volterra级数模型的非线性压缩测量辨识算法

针对非线性系统的辨识问题,提出了非线性压缩测量辨识算法,且推导出了一种符合压缩感知测量准则的测量模型。相比递归最小二乘法,该方法极大地减少了所需的测量数,使得高阶Volterra级数辨识成为可能。此外,还分析了实际应用中的各项因素对辨识准确性的影响,如信号稀疏度、测量噪声、测量矩阵形式等。     

频谱感知次序的在线最优选择

动态频谱接入是解决无线电频谱资源短缺和频谱使用效率低下问题的有效方法,它允许次级用户在授权频谱空闲时动态地接入,以进行数据传输。而频谱感知是实现动态频谱接入的关键挑战之一。由于次级用户的感知能力有限,为了获得更多的频谱接入机会,需要尽快找到频谱空闲概率最大的频段,并研究频谱感知次序问题。考虑到频谱空闲概率对次级用户是不可知的,并且会随时间变化,提出了在线学习框架,把频谱感知次序问题归纳成经典多摇臂赌博机问题,并利用在线学习方法——满意折现汤普森抽样算法处理优化问题。仿真结果表明,和其他算法相比,所提算法可以获得更多的频谱接入机会并且能够跟踪频谱空闲概率的变化。     

基于双线性连接模型的超静定捆绑火箭助推器动力学响应分析

对于长径比较高的助推器来说,为了提高与芯级的连接可靠性,可采用超静定捆绑连接方式。这种捆绑连接方式增加了助推器动力学响应分析的难度。以超静定捆绑火箭助推器为研究对象,通过引入拉压双线性弹簧模拟捆绑连接装置,建立合理的动力学分析模型,对系统进行数值求解,获得径向冲击作用下助推器的动力学响应特性。通过与静定捆绑模型的对比,获得超静定捆绑助推器的广义位移、频谱和内力的响应,从而为工程应用提供一定的参考和理论支撑。     

利用复单脉冲比的平面阵列雷达群目标检测方法

针对平面阵列雷达群目标检测问题,以矩形阵为例,详细分析方位向和俯仰向复单脉冲比虚部的统计特性;建立平面阵列雷达群目标检测模型,根据恒虚警检测原理推导复单脉冲比虚部的椭圆判决域,并利用复单脉冲比实部辅助判决,综合提出基于复单脉冲比的平面阵列雷达群目标检测算法。针对双目标情形进行仿真实验,结果表明:在较高信噪比、较大角度间隔以及幅度相当且相位差较大的条件下算法能够有效检测群目标。     

战斗部虚拟试验贝叶斯线性校准预测方法

聚能装药战斗部射虚拟试验中,射流穿深对靶板材料模型参数较敏感。为建立较准确实用的射流穿深预测模型,提出一种贝叶斯线性校准方法,建立物理过程真实值、模型预测值和试验测量值间的统计关系,结合有限的试验数据,校准未知模型参数。实例分析表明,该方法可较好地解决包含各种不确定性的大型复杂计算模型的参数校准问题。     

从属连词引导条件状语从句细说

在英语中,复合句是大量出现的语言现象,从句种类之多,表达形式各具特点.其中,本文列举了属连词引导条件状语从句一直是英语学习中的重点之一.从不同从属连词引导的条件从句,对从属关联词的词性、词义、主从句的时态、搭配、词序、辨义、译法以详尽说明,目的在于更好地理解和应用英语的复合句.