Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions with interval censored samples

This article studies the problem of designing Bayesian sampling plans (BSP) with interval censored samples. First, an algorithm for deriving the conventional BSP is proposed. The BSP is shown to possess some monotonicity. Based on the BSP and using the property of monotonicity, a new sampling plan modified by the curtailment procedure is proposed. The resulting curtailed Bayesian sampling plan (CBSP) can reduce the duration time of life test experiment, and it is optimal in the sense that its associated Bayes risk is smaller than the Bayes risk of the BSP if the cost of the duration time of life test experiment is considered. A numerical example to compute the Bayes risks of BSP and CBSP and related quantities is given. Also, a Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to illustrate the performance of the CBSP compared with the BSP. The simulation results demonstrate that our proposed CBSP has better performance because it has smaller risk. The CBSP is recommended. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 604–616, 2015     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

Asymmetric information and third-party intervention in civil wars

I study a two-period model of conflict with two combatants and a third party who is an ally of one of the combatants. The third party is fully informed about the type of her ally but not about the type of her ally’s enemy. In a signaling game, I find that if the third party is unable to give a sufficiently high assistance to her ally, then there exists a unique separating equilibrium in which the third party’s expected intervention causes her ally’s enemy to exert more effort than in the absence of third-party intervention; this worsens the conflict.     

美国成像侦察卫星发展趋势

作为全球唯一的超级大国,美国在空间观测方面具有勿庸置疑的优势。介绍了美国现有成像侦察卫星的构成、作用和发展现状,指出了美军开始注重利用商业遥感图像的新趋势,并且详细介绍了当前美国成像卫星软件的商业开发以及美国未来天基雷达计划的发展。     

海上机动目标打击效果评估决策支持系统设计

针对海上机动目标打击效果评估的特点,运用遥感技术、人工智能技术和模糊评判的方法探索打击效果评估问题。提出一种基于高分辨率遥感图像的打击效果评估决策支持系统,融合人定性分析和机器定量分析的优点,核心是问题处理系统综合运用处理后的遥感信息和支持系统的模型、知识以及数据来评估打击效果,评估模型为二级综合评判模型。对尚处于理论研究阶段的海上机动目标打击效果评估问题有积极的参考意义。     

【专题】复杂陆战场环境下的智能感知理论现状与发展

近年来,由于基于深度学习方法的智能检测算法不断演进,其网络结构不断进化,实用化程度不断提高,因此,将其应用于复杂战场环境下,形成实用化智能感知能力的可行性不断提高。然而算法的可靠性、可解释性问题目前仍未完全解决。本文认为,在未来的地面无人平台系统框架内,使用基于深度学习的目标检测识别方法,融合多种传感器感知信号,探索如何可靠地收集无人平台附近敌我车辆、人员、相关物体状况以及视距内的地理与气象环境信息,能够实现多元智能感知过程,构建智能复杂体系,为无人平台实现复杂战场环境感知理解,自主环境判定、自主行走、自主危险判定甚至威胁自动处置提供技术储备。同时,这也将是军队下一步智能感知理论方向的主要任务。     

光学仪器综合封存防护技术研究

本文针对目前光学仪器封存防护中存在的问题,依据光学仪器霉、雾、锈的生成机理,提出一种新型的综合封存技术,并通过试验验证了该技术的可靠性和和对环境的适应性。     

复杂网络理论体系对抗作战体系建模

从复杂网络的角度出发研究作战体系的网络拓扑模型,建立了作战体系网络的拓扑模型,分析了模型的度分布特征,提出了描述作战体系网络的统计特征量,并针对体系破击进行了相应的仿真实验,得出了与战争事实相符的结论,从复杂网络角度仿真作战体系进行了积极的探索和尝试.     

基于部分可辨识振动系统的载荷恢复方法

在复模态分析和参数辨识的基础上,对部分可辨识振动系统的载荷识别问题进行了研究,提出了基于部分可辨识复模态参数的载荷恢复方法。恢复模型存在幅值模糊和相位模糊,不存在排列模糊。数值仿真验证了该方法的有效性,并讨论了提高恢复精度的方法。     

基于混沌pso算法的实时动态目标分配

任务分配是多导弹协同攻击目标的重要前提,在充分考虑满足复杂战场环境各种约束的条件下,提出了基于混沌粒子群算法的实时动态算法,使得算法在求解WTA问题时具有处理意外目标和任意时刻响应当前战场状态的实时动态特性。并为了解决战场环境中各不确定性因子对新加入目标优先级的影响,提出基于三元区间数表示关联熵的复合物元目标排序方法。