The Kashmir conflict in South Asia: voices from Srinagar

This article looks at the Kashmir conflict in South Asia, which has been going on since 1947, when India and Pakistan became independent from British colonial rule. After looking at some historical background, the article looks at both the external dimension as well as the internal dimension of the conflict. The external dimension tends to focus on Indo-Pak relations over Kashmir and the internal dimension looks at India's repressive state policies within the state of Kashmir. This article uses Mary Kaldor's “New War” thesis as a theoretical framework to understand the situation and pays special attention to the conflict's very complex and multifaceted nature. The article argues that although the levels of violence have differed from time to time in the region since 1947, today the conflict seems to have less to do with Indo-Pak relations or the external side of things and has more to do with the internal dimension and India's undemocratic ways within Kashmir. Today, Kashmir is one of the most militarised conflict zones in the world. The stationing of the Indian military and paramilitary forces in the region has only exacerbated the situation since it is the security personnel who cause much of the problem. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act gives these security forces extraordinary powers in the region, which they often abuse. The armed forces have no real understanding of the local culture or sympathy for local religious sentiments. Poverty, corruption, administrative failure, police brutality, identity politics and human rights abuses are some of the key features associated with this conflict. Methodologically, a number of interviews were carried out with the local people in the region recently. From the data gathered through the interviews, it is very obvious that the people still feel very oppressed and that the situation is still very volatile, fraught with uncertainty. Finally, after making an assessment of the situation, the article tries to suggest methods of peaceful building and conflict management as the way forward.     

TERRORISM: FACTS FROM FIGURES 1

If international terrorism is on a rising trend, an important source of confirmation or refutation of this is time‐series data on terrorist activity. Using chiefly data collected by the RAND/MIPT consortium we show using basic statistical analysis that in the period 1968–2005 the yearly number of all international terrorist incidents shows no trend over time, but fluctuates year on year in a random manner. On the other hand some indicators do show a definite trend over time, principally the steady rise in the number of incidents that are death‐dealing in nature. A further conclusion is drawn, showing that the proportion of these incidents leading to deaths above a given level is virtually fixed.     

Counterterrorism And Its Impact On Terror Support And Recruitment: Accounting For Backlash

This article presents a dynamic model in which counterterrorism policies have the potential to generate positive public support for terrorism via a backlash that may fuel terror recruitment. For an optimizing government aiming at maximizing security, this phenomenon produces a natural bound on proactive counterterror policy that is related to the dynamic path of conflict. Moreover, terror is a persistent phenomenon that requires patience on the part of the target government for optimal counterterror policies to be realized. Finally, the potential for backlash yields insights into the need for target governments to fight an information war to change public opinion regarding its own policies and the ultimate effect of terror attacks.     

基于复杂网络理论的作战系统结构拓扑模型研究

基于复杂网络理论,分析了信息化作战系统网络结构,构建了传统作战系统和信息化作战系统拓扑模型的生成算法,并通过对传统作战系统和信息化作战系统结构拓扑模型度量性质的比较,说明了信息化战争下的作战系统结构特点,为进一步研究网络化战争提供了良好的模型基础．     

随机滤波模型在变速箱剩余寿命预测中的应用研究

摘要：基于变速箱加速寿命实验的振动信号,提取信号的多种特征参量．通过分析各特征参量的敏感性和稳定性,选择幅域裕度指标、峰值指标、波形指标和RMS（RootMeanSquare）作为特征参量,建立一种基于随机滤波的变速箱剩余寿命预测模型,给出剩余寿命后验概率密度的递推公式,设计了极大似然估计方法求解模型参数,并经实例验证模型的有效性和实用性．     

基于DPA的LED非线性部件逆向研究

在军事和商业应用中有很多密码算法是半公开或者不公开的,旨在证明算法保密对密码的安全性提高并没有明显帮助．针对轻型分组密码LED的未知非线性部件S盒,提出了一种基于差分功耗分析的逆向方法,该方法可以利用差分功耗曲线的极性信息来恢复未知算法结构．实验结果表明,在LED的S盒参数未知时,利用功耗采集平台采集算法运行时泄露的旁路功耗信息,可以成功逆向出全部s盒信息,验证了该方法的可行性．     

一类具有免疫时滞和病毒颗粒的HIV模型的动力学性态分析

考虑感染细胞的治愈和未感染细胞吸收作用的影响,研究一类具有免疫时滞和病毒颗粒的HIV模型,通过分析特征方程研究平衡点的局部稳定性,利用规范型理论和中心流行定理得到确定Hopl分支方向和分支周期解稳定性的计算公式,并通过构造Lyapunov泛函,讨论未感染平衡点的全局稳定性．     

损伤本构模型在边坡工程损伤破坏研究中的应用

从材料破坏机理与规律出发研究结构性土体工程的渐进破坏过程,是实际工程研究的重要方向。针对结构性土的变形特点和传统本构模型解决结构性土体工程渐进破坏过程的不足,采用作者以前提出的结构性土损伤本构模型对边坡工程算例的渐进破坏过程进行模拟分析。算例计算结果分析表明：边坡在破坏过程中会形成一个贯通剪切带,剪切带土体完全损伤;剪切带上方土体损伤相对较小,且有距离剪切带越远损伤越小的趋势;剪切带下方土体损伤也较小,主要因为开挖对其影响很小且处于稳定的坡体内。研究证明,运用结构性土损伤本构模型能较好地解决实际工程损伤破坏问题。     

基于复杂网络的作战体系网络模型分析

运用复杂网络方法,构建了作战体系网络模型,分析了作战体系网络的基本特征,揭示了作战网络主要参数与作战体系真实特性之间的关系,得到了基于信息系统体系作战战法运用的一些启示。     

战场要素的认知处理

针对多弹编队飞行时如何判断当前复杂战场环境下的战场态势问题,采用层次分析法、属性识别理论方法和数据融合的方法,研究了实时认知处理战场要素模型问题。首先,对复杂战场要素进行分析,对这些战场要素进行分类;对不同的战场要素分别建立数学模型;然后,采用层次分析法和属性识别理论方法对导弹认知的数据进行评估,得到数据的精度评估等级后,采用数据融合方法对数据进行融合,得到融合后数据,以此对导弹中的数据进行实时更新。最后,将所建立的战场要素模型进行实例化仿真,仿真结果表明该方法的有效性。