航天测控系统任务可靠性分析的EOOPN模型

提出了一种可用于航天测控系统任务可靠性分析的扩展面向对象Petri网（extend object-oriented Petri nets, EOOPN）模型,旨在对给定的航天测控方案进行可靠性评估分析。针对问题特点明确了OOPN扩展思路,给出了EOOPN模型的形式化定义、运行规则和建模步骤,模型通过引入公共库所、激发弧、消息变迁和消息处理函数等概念,体现了面向对象的思想,具有很好的层次性和模块性。所建立的EOOPN模型能够完整的描述航天测控系统的组成和任务特点。通过对算例模型仿真运行,表明实验结果具有良好收敛性,与Markov解析值对比误差在1%以内,从而验证了模型的有效性。     

弹药库防静电方法研究

根据弹药库静电危险场所的分类等级,以形成静电危害的3个基本条件为依据,讨论了弹药库防静电危害常用措施:设施设备静电接地、防静电工作台、人体静电防护、铺设导电(或防静电)地面以及各自防静电要求.这些措施为防止和消除弹药库的静电危害提供了根本保障.     

美国2014年《四年防务评估报告》特点

2014年3月4日,美国国防部向国会提交了2014年版《四年防务评估报告》和《2015财年国防预算报告》。《四年防务评估报告》更新了再平衡战略,为美军建设提出了优先发展方向,要求美军联合部队向“更小型化”转型,以满足未来军事行动需求。     

一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型

研究一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型,得到了模型的基本再生数.通过线性化的方法,运用LaSalle-Lyapunov定理,证明当基本再生数R01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;通过迭代的方法,证明当基本再生数R01时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.     

北斗GEO卫星用户算法的改进方法研究*

针对北斗GEO用户算法需要进行5?倾角的坐标旋转处理这一过程,本文提出了采用经典广播星历参数用户算法直接解算北斗GEO卫星位置的改进方法,并同时给出了相应的基于第二类无奇点根数的广播星历拟合算法。该算法采用第二类无奇点轨道根数代替经典轨道根数,解决了由GEO轨道的小倾角特性引起的经典广播星历参数拟合过程中法化矩阵奇异的问题。从而避免了北斗GEO用户算法中坐标旋转处理过程,减少了GEO用户算法的计算步骤。经过仿真验证,本文提出的改进方法在卫星轨道拟合过程中与原算法精度相当;在卫星轨道外推过程中与原算法相比略有精度损失,但仍满足用户导航定位精度的需求。最后,采用实际北斗GEO星历解算的轨道数据验证了改进算法的有效性。     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

The sixteenth-century antecedents of special operations ‘small war’

The first conceptual, theoretical treatises about small war (la petite guerre) as special operations appeared only from the middle of the seventeenth century. The term is not used in the eighteenth-century sense of ‘special operations’ in older sources. The supposed absence of any treatment of the subject is surprising considering the obsession with the ‘art of war’ in the Renaissance, but other authors attribute it to a supposed antinomy between chivalric ideals and irregular warfare. But the absence of explicit manuals on the subject is not evidence of absence of advanced reflection on this kind of operations in the Middle Ages and in Early Modern times. We should thus look elsewhere, in other genres, for writings that contain and pass on military knowledge. Epics, romances, educational and military treatises, and memoirs in fact contain elements of a theory of special operations, even though these genres differ from our conception of rationality inherited from the Enlightenment.     

Guerrillas and bandits in the Serranía de Ronda, 1810–1812

The Spanish Guerrilla (1808–1812) which has given its name to ideologically motivated insurgencies is usually portrayed as a patriotic uprising against the French occupation forces of Napoleon. It was that, in part, but also many other things besides. This case study illustrates its overlap and convergence with banditry but also with social unrest turned into uprisings directed by poor Spaniards against their creditors, as in the storming of Ronda by insurgents in 1810. From the propaganda of the day to the subsequent Spanish patriotic historiography, there has been a tendency to exaggerate the amplitude of events and also the damage that was done to the French forces and the casualty figures inflicted on them.     

论高中《政治生活》实施探究性学习的一般模式

探究性学习的实质是要求教师转变教育观念,在教学中充分调动学生学习的主动性和积极性,激发学生学习的主人翁意识,真正使学生成为学习的主人。因此高中政治课的课堂教学应该充分渗透探究性学习的精神,同时教师又应在这一宗旨的指导下,根据教材的内容和特点的不同采用不同的模式,选用不同的方法,这样才能达到构建高效课堂的目的。     

刑法罪名“口袋化”倾向之反思

我国刑法中的一些罪名在司法认定过程中,日益具有＂口袋化＂的倾向。这一倾向与罪刑法定原则、尊重保障人权的基本理念相冲突。这一倾向产生的原因主要有：部分刑法条文的规定不够明确;司法工作人员对于犯罪构成要件以及刑法基本理论的理解存在偏差;以社会危害性为中心的传统刑法观的影响;个别司法解释有违刑法的基本规定和基本原理等。应结合这一倾向产生的原因,通过各种途径对其加以遏制。