The ‘African COP’

The 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17) had been anticipated as the ‘African COP’, not only due to the African venue but also due to the opportunity it would afford African countries – with South Africa at the helm – to steer the debate on a global climate change regime. With the conference now over, lobby groups, international organisations, negotiators, observers and commentators alike have been taking stock of its outcome. Despite the litany of developmental and security implications of climate change, COP17 got underway with little hope that much might actually be achieved. In light of the discouraging condition of the global economy, with leading developed economies suffering financially, states were hardly in a mood to be making concessions that would impact their fiscal health. Nonetheless, an agreement was reached. Questions remain, however, about the significance of the outcome of the African COP for the world at large, but ultimately also for Africa.     

ACHIEVING THE VISION OF THE NPT

This article assesses the prospects for a strategy of incrementalism to lead to achievement of the core bargain of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: non-nuclear weapon states' nuclear nonproliferation in exchange for nuclear weapon states' nuclear disarmament to the point of “global zero.” Game theory, prospect theory, and liberal international theory are used to evaluate the potential of a strategy of incrementalism. While separately each has insights to offer, it is when all three theoretical approaches are used in tandem that meaningful explanatory gains emerge. The article concludes that incrementalism probably cannot lead to complete nonproliferation and global nuclear zero. Instead, signal events (as described by prospect theory) are needed to “punctuate” incremental processes in negotiations (best explained by liberal international theory) in order to move past hindrances such as international structural constraints (exemplified by game theory) and the conservative risk-taking propensities of state elites (described by prospect theory).     

VERIFIABILITY,RELIABILITY, AND NATIONAL SECURITY

The rejection of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) by the U.S. Senate in October 1999 could have been avoided, and the consequences of that vote still loom in the minds of supporters of the treaty. President Barack Obama has embraced the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons, and a key element of the Obama administration's arms control agenda is delivering on U.S. CTBT ratification. In order to secure the two-thirds majority in the Senate necessary to ratify the treaty, senators that remain skeptical of nuclear disarmament must also be convinced that the entry into force of the CTBT is in the national security interest of the United States. This article provides an analysis of the issues surrounding U.S. CTBT ratification divided into three segments—verifiability of the treaty, reliability of the U.S. stockpile, and the treaty's impact on U.S. national security—and concludes that CTBT ratification serves the security objectives of the United States. The CTBT constitutes an integral component of the multilateral nonproliferation architecture designed to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and it constrains the qualitative development of nuclear weapons, thereby hindering efforts by states of concern to develop advanced nuclear weapons.     

Boko Haram and the challenges of Nigeria's war on terror

Boko Haram terrorism has been recognized by Nigerian President Jonathan as the most threatening and complex security issue in Nigeria since independence. In response, the Federal Government of Nigeria has committed itself to different counterterrorism measures, which are largely dominated by “hard politics” and military mobilization. Spending heavily on defense to upgrade military hardware and train personnel in a counterterrorism role, Nigeria has also boosted its strategic importance in the “Global War on Terror”. However, this attempt has become unpopular as it has failed to contain Boko Haram within a short time frame and has made insufficient headway against unabated terror, with human rights costs among the host communities and amidst a surge of stakeholders' discordance. As a matter of concern, this article seeks to assess Boko Haram as an opponent in Nigeria's war on terror (WOT) and to ascertain the challenges the country faces, the alternative measures open to it, and possible ways forward.     

钢质油罐罐底腐蚀预测模型研究与评价

钢质油罐在储存油料时不可避免地会受到严重腐蚀.为能够掌握罐底的腐蚀程度,提出了一种由灰色系统理论和BP人工神经网络相结合的方法建立预测模型,对钢质油罐罐底腐蚀情况进行了预测,并通过实例计算给出了评价.计算结果表明,预测值与实测值相差很小,尤其对油料腐蚀这种涉及较多因素的复杂过程,该方法具有明显的优越性;该模型克服了传统预测模型需建立函数的难题,且预测精度较高,具有较高理论与实际应用价值.     

基于禁忌算法的无线传感器网络PEGASIS算法改进

为了减少无线传感器网络节点能耗,延长网络生存时间,在PEGASIS算法的基础上,针对PEGASIS算法中节点之间容易产生长链和簇头选择没有考虑节点剩余能量的问题,提出了一种基于禁忌算法的PEGASIS算法改进。建链阶段采用禁忌算法代替原有的贪婪算法,防止了长链的产生,减小了节点传输距离;同时引入基于剩余能量的簇头选择机制,均衡了节点之间的能耗,延长了节点的生存时间。仿真结果表明,改进算法较PEGASIS算法第1个节点的死亡时间延长了约7倍,半数节点的死亡时间也得到了延长,从而提高了整个网络的生存时间。     

基于小波神经网络的货运量预测

选取我国1979—2011年国民生产总值、能源生产总值、进出口贸易额、社会消费品零售总额和固定资产投资总额5项指标作为货运总量的主要影响因素,以货运总量为输出,建立了基于Morlet小波函数的小波神经网络预测模型。该模型能够揭示货运量与相关变量之间的非线性映射关系,经实例分析得到了较满意的结果,并通过与实际货运量和BP神经网络预测结果的对比,证明了小波神经网络在货运量预测方面应用的可行性。     

基于超网络的作战体系建模方法

基于信息系统体系作战问题研究的基础是作战体系构建。在对作战体系进行网络化结构分析的基础上,重点考虑体系中各类实体及属性的复杂性,根据其网络拓扑特性,以超网络、超图理论为指导,建立了基于结构层和属性层相统一的超网络模型,并结合体系作战过程中的对抗规律,提出超网络模型相应的动态演化方式,最后通过案例建模验证了超网络作战体系构建模型的适应性及优势。     

编队多平台协同防空作战系统逻辑结构分析

本文旨在为舰艇编队实现多平台协同防空反导提供一种系统逻辑结构设计思路,通过提出具有三层逻辑网络的舰艇编队多平台协同防空作战系统逻辑结构,并分析三层逻辑网络的结构和功能,以及阐明三层逻辑网络间的信息传递逻辑关系,从而使编队内各舰艇作战系统网络化连接,实现了编队协同防空反导,最大限度地发挥了编队兵力兵器的整体防空作战能力。     

基于IPSec的下一代高性能安全处理器的体系结构

IPSec是目前适合所有Internet通信的惟一一种安全技术。通过分析IPSec的处理过程,指出网络安全处理器的使用是IPSec协议高效实现的关键,并详细介绍了目前典型安全处理器的结构和应用。由于目前的网络安全处理器无法满足OC 48及其以上速率接口的处理要求,对下一代高速网络安全处理器的体系结构进行了分析和预测。