能力型防空群指控系统概念模型及效能评估

为提高能力型防空群整体作战能力,应用系统论方法分析了能力型防空群指控系统的构成要素及运行模式,提出了指控系统信息结构力的概念,建立了能力型防空群指控系统概念模型。在此基础上,提出了能力型防空群指控系统效能评估指标体系,运用网络复杂性理论、图论、集合论及信息论方法建立了能力型防空群指控系统的物理性能及信息结构力计算模型,给出了指控系统效能综合评估函数,可为防空指控系统构建提供参考。     

The effects of model parameter deviations on the variance of a linearly filtered time series

We consider a general linear filtering operation on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series. The variance of the filter output, which is an important quantity in many applications, is not known with certainty because it depends on the true ARMA parameters. We derive an expression for the sensitivity (i.e., the partial derivative) of the output variance with respect to deviations in the model parameters. The results provide insight into the robustness of many common statistical methods that are based on linear filtering and also yield approximate confidence intervals for the output variance. We discuss applications to time series forecasting, statistical process control, and automatic feedback control of industrial processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Threshold incentives over multiple periods and the sales hockey stick phenomenon

In this article, we study threshold‐based sales‐force incentives and their impact on a dealer's optimal effort. A phenomenon, observed in practice, is that the dealer exerts a large effort toward the end of the incentive period to boost sales and reach the threshold to make additional profits. In the literature, the resulting last‐period sales spike is sometimes called the hockey stick phenomenon (HSP). In this article, we show that the manufacturer's choice of the incentive parameters and the underlying demand uncertainty affect the dealer's optimal effort choice. This results in the sales HSP over multiple time periods even when there is a cost associated with waiting. We then show that, by linking the threshold to a correlated market signal, the HSP can be regulated. We also characterize the variance of the total sales across all the periods and demonstrate conditions under the sales variance can be reduced. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Robustness of efficient server assignment policies to service time distributions in finite‐buffered lines

We study the assignment of flexible servers to stations in tandem lines with service times that are not necessarily exponentially distributed. Our goal is to achieve optimal or near‐optimal throughput. For systems with infinite buffers, it is already known that the effective assignment of flexible servers is robust to the service time distributions. We provide analytical results for small systems and numerical results for larger systems that support the same conclusion for tandem lines with finite buffers. In the process, we propose server assignment heuristics that perform well for systems with different service time distributions. Our research suggests that policies known to be optimal or near‐optimal for Markovian systems are also likely to be effective when used to assign servers to tasks in non‐Markovian systems. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Supply chain coordination with shelf‐space and retail price dependent demand and heterogeneous retailers

We consider supply chain coordination in which a manufacturer supplies some product to multiple heterogeneous retailers and wishes to coordinate the supply chain via wholesale price and holding cost subsidy. The retail price is either exogenous or endogenous. The market demand is described by the market share attraction model based on all retailers'shelf‐spaces and retail prices. We obtain optimal solutions for the centralized supply chain, where the optimal retail pricing is a modified version of the well‐known cost plus pricing strategy. We further get feasible contracts for the manufacturer to coordinate the hybrid and decentralized supply chains. The manufacturer can allocate the total profit free to himself and the retail market via the wholesale price when the retail price is exogenous, but otherwise he cannot. Finally, we point out that different characteristics of the retail market are due to different powers of the manufacturer, and the more power the manufacturer has, the simpler the contract to coordinate the chain will be. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

A facility reliability problem: Formulation,properties, and algorithm

Having a robustly designed supply chain network is one of the most effective ways to hedge against network disruptions because contingency plans in the event of a disruption are often significantly limited. In this article, we study the facility reliability problem: how to design a reliable supply chain network in the presence of random facility disruptions with the option of hardening selected facilities. We consider a facility location problem incorporating two types of facilities, one that is unreliable and another that is reliable (which is not subject to disruption, but is more expensive). We formulate this as a mixed integer programming model and develop a Lagrangian Relaxation‐based solution algorithm. We derive structural properties of the problem and show that for some values of the disruption probability, the problem reduces to the classical uncapacitated fixed charge location problem. In addition, we show that the proposed solution algorithm is not only capable of solving large‐scale problems, but is also computationally effective. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Optimal operating policies in a commodity trading market with the manufacturer's presence

With the help of the Internet and express delivery at relatively low costs, trading markets have become increasingly popular as a venue to sell excess inventory and a source to obtain products at lower prices. In this article, we study the operational decisions in the presence of a trading market in a periodic‐review, finite‐horizon setting. Prices in the trading market change periodically and are determined endogenously by the demand and supply in the market. We characterize the retailers'optimal ordering and trading policies when the original manufacturer and the trading market co‐exist and retailers face fees to participate in the trading market. Comparing with the case with no trading fees, we obtain insights into the impact of trading fees and the fee structure on the retailers and the manufacturer. Further, we find that by continually staying in the market, the manufacturer may use her pricing strategies to counter‐balance the negative impact of the trading market on her profit. Finally, we extend the model to the case when retailers dynamically update their demand distribution based on demand observations in previous periods. A numerical study provides additional insights into the impact of demand updating in a trading market with the manufacturer's competition. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

基于实时递阶控制的智能坦克火控系统结构分析

为适应坦克火控系统的智能化发展需求,保证智能坦克火控系统研究工作的顺利开展,提出了坦克火控系统智能控制结构的设计原则,并综合功能型和行为型控制结构的优点,构建了系统智能实时递阶控制的总体结构,对各个智能控制层的内部结构和功能进行了分析。最后基于实时递阶控制结构对系统的稳定性进行了分析,对智能坦克火控系统的后续研究设计工作具有一定的指导作用。     

军事供应链不确定性产生机理研究

军事供应链中不可避免地存在不确定性。构建了军事供应链不确定性产生机理的概念模型,从需求、供应、环境三个方面分析了军事供应链不确定性产生的原因,同时,对军事供应链中可能存在的各种不确定性进行了讨论,明确了加剧不确定性影响的因素是军事供应链系统的复杂性。具体表现为军事供应链成员交互关系的复杂性和军事供应链网络结构的复杂性。提出正是由于这两个原因的存在,对军事供应链的保障性能产生了巨大的影响。     

弹着时间可控的机动目标多弹协同制导律

针对机动目标的多导弹齐射攻击,运用最优控制和卡尔曼滤波理论探索机动目标下弹着时间可控制导律问题。设计了一种最优弹着时间可控的制导律,它由指定弹着时间和预计弹着时间的误差作为反馈信号与传统比例制导律结合推导得出,称之为弹着时间可控制导律（Impact-time-control Guidance Law,简称ITCG）,同时利用卡尔曼滤波估计了目标加速度。通过对作战模型情况的仿真,可以看出这种新型的制导律应用于引导多发导弹以指定时间同时攻击目标时的有效性和可行性。