NMD作战管理仿真模型框架设计

针对美国国家导弹防御系统NMD(nationalmissiledefence)的发展现状,重点分析了NMD作战管理系统模型的行为过程以及与其它系统模型的接口关系,设计了作战管理系统的模型体系框架,提出了将系统的行为过程描述和功能描述相分离的建模思路。     

SLOWING DOWN TO KEEP THE LEAD IN MILITARY TECHNOLOGY

We develop a model of military technology competition among states. States can choose to introduce new military technology, mimic rivals’ level of technology, or withdraw from the contest. States can choose to implement any level of technology within their current feasible technologies. We find that states with significant technological leads should sometimes withhold new technologies, only strategically releasing them to trump rivals’ efforts. We develop the model by refining Admiral Jackie Fisher’s roughly articulated concept of ‘plunging’. We then use this refined argument to reanalyze the case of naval rivalries among European powers between the Crimean War and the First World War. Finally, we conclude by discussing the model’s implications for current US military force structure planning.     

US Advanced Conventional Systems and Conventional Prompt Global Strike Ambitions:

ABSTRACT

The dangers and risks of employing a Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) capability greatly exceed the benefits. More suitable, if less prompt, alternatives exist to deal with fleeting targets. Even a niche CPGS capability—consisting of approximately twenty systems—carries risks, to say nothing of proposals to develop hundreds or more. Most dangerously, CPGS could stir the pre-emption pot, particularly vis-à-vis states that correctly perceive to be within the gunsights of US CPGS weapons; other states, too, may feel emboldened to emulate this US precedent and undertake their own form of prompt, long-range strike capability. Compressed circumstances surrounding such a scenario could foster unwanted erratic behavior, including the misperception that the threatening missile carries a nuclear weapon. But the true Achilles's heel of the CPGS concept is the unprecedented demands it places on the intelligence community to provide decision makers with “exquisite” intelligence within an hour timeframe. Such compressed conditions leave decision makers with virtually no time to appraise the direct—and potentially unintended—consequences of their actions.     

NATO Territorial Ballistic Missile Defense and its Implications for Arms Control

ABSTRACT

Since 2002, NATO's territorial missile defense has evoked continuous debates between NATO states and the Russian Federation. Thirteen years have passed without reaching a common denominator. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the historical background of the debate and the technical details of the missile defense system, highlighting its shortcomings and the state of its deployment process. It also contrasts the military-technical and political arguments of both sides, before addressing the applicable norms of international law to highlight violations and the effect of this noncompliance on existing arms control measures.     

基于Gauss伪谱法的空空导弹最优中制导律设计

研究Gauss伪谱法在空空导弹最优中制导律设计中的应用。建立空空导弹中制导律设计问题最优控制模型,首次提出采用Gauss伪谱法求解最优中制导律设计问题的思路,详细阐述了求解流程,通过仿真算例验证了求解方法的有效性,并同比例导引、打靶法等传统方法进行了对比。仿真结果表明,综合考虑性能指标、计算精度、计算效率等因素,Gauss伪谱法具有明显优势,Gauss伪谱法求解结果和求解效率与配点个数密切相关。研究结果为空空导弹中制导律设计提供理论参考。     

一种反舰导弹射击效率的评定模型

根据舰载防空系统拦截反舰导弹的过程,建立了基于数学期望的反舰导弹突破多层拦截的效率模型,并在此基础上仿真了不同反舰导弹齐射数量的射击效率,得到了对具有较强反导能力的舰艇实施小批量反舰导弹齐射的效率和点射的效率同样低的结论。     

舰空导弹射击模型优化分析

针对不同情况来袭的反舰导弹,运用系统分析的方法尝试在一定的条件下解决舰空导弹优化射击问题。通过分析,确立了在所假定的情况下选择各自不同的射击方法可以获得最大的抗击效果,从而提高作战的效费比。文中所确立的射击模型有一定的合理性和可行性,在射击方法恰当的情况下,舰空导弹武器系统的战斗可靠性对舰空导弹武器系统的射击效果起着重要作用。     

防空导弹反TBM作战指挥中目标分配关键问题研究

依据防空反导作战理论和目标分配的要求,对防空导弹反TBM作战指挥中目标分配的关键问题进行了研究。分别对威胁排序方法、拦截可行性条件、目标分配原则和目标分配算法进行了分析,提出了一种反TBM作战指挥中目标分配问题的算法,最后讨论了目标分配的评价问题。通过实际应用表明此方法是切实可行的。     

基于最小二乘的导弹外弹道精度分析系统

外弹道测量系统中,合理的布站能提高整个系统对目标的跟踪测量能力,优化的交会方案可提高弹道求解的精度。采用最小二乘法,运用协方差矩阵分析轨道参数精度,通过仿真计算,着重研究如何获取最优交会方案,以及不同的交会方案对外弹道求解精度的影响。试验结果表明,该算法可为外测数据事后处理提供高精度、快速的光测数据处理报告,为合理调整站点布局和人力资源提供依据。