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741.
Leo J. Blanken 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(3):317-334
We develop a model of military technology competition among states. States can choose to introduce new military technology, mimic rivals’ level of technology, or withdraw from the contest. States can choose to implement any level of technology within their current feasible technologies. We find that states with significant technological leads should sometimes withhold new technologies, only strategically releasing them to trump rivals’ efforts. We develop the model by refining Admiral Jackie Fisher’s roughly articulated concept of ‘plunging’. We then use this refined argument to reanalyze the case of naval rivalries among European powers between the Crimean War and the First World War. Finally, we conclude by discussing the model’s implications for current US military force structure planning. 相似文献
742.
Agnes Katona 《The Nonproliferation Review》2013,20(2):253-272
ABSTRACTSince 2002, NATO's territorial missile defense has evoked continuous debates between NATO states and the Russian Federation. Thirteen years have passed without reaching a common denominator. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the historical background of the debate and the technical details of the missile defense system, highlighting its shortcomings and the state of its deployment process. It also contrasts the military-technical and political arguments of both sides, before addressing the applicable norms of international law to highlight violations and the effect of this noncompliance on existing arms control measures. 相似文献
743.
Dennis M. Gormley 《The Nonproliferation Review》2013,20(2):123-139
ABSTRACTThe dangers and risks of employing a Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) capability greatly exceed the benefits. More suitable, if less prompt, alternatives exist to deal with fleeting targets. Even a niche CPGS capability—consisting of approximately twenty systems—carries risks, to say nothing of proposals to develop hundreds or more. Most dangerously, CPGS could stir the pre-emption pot, particularly vis-à-vis states that correctly perceive to be within the gunsights of US CPGS weapons; other states, too, may feel emboldened to emulate this US precedent and undertake their own form of prompt, long-range strike capability. Compressed circumstances surrounding such a scenario could foster unwanted erratic behavior, including the misperception that the threatening missile carries a nuclear weapon. But the true Achilles's heel of the CPGS concept is the unprecedented demands it places on the intelligence community to provide decision makers with “exquisite” intelligence within an hour timeframe. Such compressed conditions leave decision makers with virtually no time to appraise the direct—and potentially unintended—consequences of their actions. 相似文献
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采用劳斯稳定判别法,结合某旋转弹的实际控制结构和弹体特性,对不同控制结构对静稳定度适应程度进行了分析,重点研究了不同的控制系统回路结构对弹体稳定特性的适应能力,为旋转弹控制系统设计提供更有针对性的参考。 相似文献
746.
John Stone 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2014,25(3):669-684
The use of conventional armed forces in a deterrent role merits close consideration. Instability in weak or failing states can have global ramifications, while efforts to build stability take time. In principle, conventional deterrence can be used to buy the time required for such stabilization efforts. Attempts at deterrence will, however, need to overcome credibility problems stemming from the technical limitations associated with conventional armed forces, and with the likely requirement for multiple external actors to deter multiple intrastate audiences. While deterrence might work under certain circumstances, it will not play as central a role in strategy as it did during the Cold War. 相似文献
747.
在双星预警条件下,将指数加权递归最小二乘算法应用于目标关机点状态估计问题中。通过引入加权因子对目标助推段运动的局部拟线性特性进行描述,从而在一定程度上克服了一般的线性多项式模型难以准确刻画整个助推段运动的难题。通过对助推段目标动力学特性的分析,考察了目标在垂直射面方向上的运动特性。在此基础上,提出了一种更为准确的助推段运动模型。仿真算例表明,所提出的关机点状态估计方法相对于传统的方法具有一定的优越性。 相似文献
748.
Sumit Ganguly 《The Nonproliferation Review》2014,21(3-4):255-260
The question of nuclear stability in South Asia is a subject of both academic and policy significance. It is the only region in the world that has three, contiguous nuclear-armed states: India, the People's Republic of China, and Pakistan. It is also freighted with unresolved border disputes. To compound matters, all three states are now modernizing their nuclear forces and have expressed scant interest in any form of regional arms control. These issues and developments constitute the basis of this special section, which explores the problems and prospects of nuclear crisis stability in the region. 相似文献
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