Re-thinking the Unthinkable: Arms Control in the Twenty-First Century

ABSTRACT

Since the end of the Cold War, arms control proponents tried to make the case for deep nuclear reductions and other forms of security cooperation as necessary for strategic stability. While different versions of strategic stability analysis did sometimes produce innovative proposals, constructive negotiations, and successful ratification campaigns in the past, this analytical framework has become more of a hindrance than a help. Treating arms control as a predominantly technical way to make deterrence more stable by changing force structure characteristics, military operations, relative numbers of weapons on either side, or total number of nuclear weapons gives short shrift to political factors, including the fundamental assumptions about world politics that inform different arms control logics, the quality of political relations among leading states, and the political processes that affect negotiation, ratification, and implementation. This article compares two logics for arms control as a means to enhance strategic stability, one developed by the Cambridge community in the 1960s and one used by the Reagan administration and its successors, with current perspectives on strategic stability in which flexibility and freedom of action are preferable to predictability and arms control. It also contrasts what the Barack Obama administration has tried to achieve through strategic stability dialogues with Russia and China with how they envision security cooperation. It then presents an approach developed during the Cold War by Hedley Bull for thinking about both the technical and the political dimensions of arms control, and suggests that the logic of Cooperative Security (which shares important features with Bull's approach) is a more appropriate and productive way to think about arms control in the twenty-first century than strategic stability analysis is.     

RUSSIAN NAVAL NUCLEAR FUEL AND REACTORS

Russian naval nuclear fuel and reactors pose both proliferation and environmental threats, ranging from the possible theft of highly enriched uranium fuel to the radioactive contamination of the environment, whether due to accident, neglect, or sabotage. Current conditions at Russian naval bases, together with a history of accidents and incidents involving Russia's nuclear fleet, make a convincing case for the large-scale assistance that the G8 is now providing to improve the safety and security of Russian naval reactors and fuel. However, virtually no data has been released to allow accurate, reliable, and independent analysis of reactor and fuel properties, risking misguided international efforts to assist in the areas of nuclear cleanup, nonproliferation, and security. This article identifies and assesses relevant properties and developments related to reactor and fuel design, provides a comprehensive presentation of Russian nuclear naval technologies, and examines technological trends in the context of proliferation and environmental security.     

军用仿生技术发展趋势

仿生技术是武器装备发展的核心技术,已成为新概念武器装备发展及性能提升的常用方法,具有极其广阔的应用前景。文章针对仿生技术的发展历程、技术现状及其在军事装备发展中所发挥的作用进行阐述,分析了决定军事仿生技术发展的生物结构表征技术、仿生设计技术、生物制造技术与军事应用具体特点,以及军事仿生技术发展趋势。     

群决策理论在多机协同空战机动决策中的应用

针对近距空战中多架战机对空中的多个敌对目标进行协同攻击的机动决策问题进行了研究。将群决策理论引入多机协同空战机动决策,首先确定了决策成员与候选方案,然后基于战场态势评估提出了采用风险决策准则的偏好排序确定方法,给出了集结偏好的序数型群决策方法。在不同空战想定条件下进行仿真,结果表明,该方法合理、可行,具有良好的应用前景。     

密集环境中无人机协同机动飞行运动规划方法综述

从单无人机机动飞行向多机协同扩展的通用规划框架出发,介绍了其中各模块相关研究的基本原理、代表性方法和前沿研究,主要包括用于环境障碍感知的实时导航地图构建、离散空间的路径规划、连续空间的轨迹规划、基于离散连续混合空间的规划、多航迹或轨迹的协同规划。综合无人机通用规划框架的关键技术,提出了无人机协同机动规划下一步需要重点研究的方向。     

试论性能化防火设计在消防监督工作中的局限性——以某商业综合体为例

近年来,超大体量建设工程大多通过性能化防火设计方法解决超规范设计的问题,虽然性能化防火设计在理论、模拟计算和分析论证上满足设定安全目标,但设计评估过程忽视我国国情、社会环境影响、公民素质及安全管理水平等实际情况,过分依赖后期管理,如处理不当,极易产生新的消防安全隐患.以某商业综合体为例,分析性能化防火设计的建筑物在实际消防监督工作中的局限性,旨在提醒各级消防监管部门、性能化设计评估单位、评审专家充分认识外部环境对性能化设计方案的影响,使性能化设计更加符合实际.     

基于渐进性的线性方程组教学设计的研究

针对线性方程组传统教学中的一些问题,给出了引入线性方程组、解线性方程组、分析解结构的渐进性三步教学设计,同时给出了maple求解线性方程组的两种方法,将理论与实践初步结合了起来,丰富了教学手段,激发了学生的学习兴趣。     

某自行火炮全弹道多学科优化设计

为提高某自行火炮弹丸的杀伤效能,寻求该火炮全弹道设计参数间更优的匹配关系,并缩短全弹道设计周期,根据其包含的内弹道、外弹道和终点效应3个分学科之间的耦合关系,建立自行火炮全弹道多学科优化设计模型。以射程最大、杀伤面积最大为优化目标,进行全弹道优化设计。与单目标优化方法对比,多目标优化有效提高了该火炮弹道的综合性能,避免了单个目标优化时其他目标劣化的现象。     

基于实数编码遗传算法的超宽带波形设计

采用实数编码的遗传算法对超宽带(UWB)波形进行了独特设计。以正弦高斯脉冲作为基函数,提出了一种新的适应度函数表示方法,应用此方法设计出了更符合美国联邦通信委员会(FCC)提出的辐射掩蔽特性要求的脉冲波形,并对设计脉冲进行了链路预算。仿真结果表明:采用实数编码的遗传算法优化设计得到的超宽带波形效果好且仿真时间复杂度低;与随机组合脉冲相比,设计出的脉冲在信号传输性能方面更具优势。     

现代战争计划的设计

现代战争的战争形态和作战样式发生了巨大改变,传统战争计划的制定难以适应新的作战指挥方式。为提高作战指挥的时效性和作战决策的正确性,对现代战争的战争计划的设计要求和设计流程进行了分析,总结了需要解决的关键技术,对深入开展战争计划的设计研究具有一定的启示。