A multi‐stage stochastic programming approach for network capacity expansion with multiple sources of capacity

In networks, there are often more than one sources of capacity. The capacities can be permanently or temporarily owned by the decision maker. Depending on the nature of sources, we identify the permanent capacity, spot market capacity, and contract capacity. We use a scenario tree to model the uncertainty, and build a multi‐stage stochastic integer program that can incorporate multiple sources and multiple types of capacities in a general network. We propose two solution methodologies for the problem. Firstly, we design an asymptotically convergent approximation algorithm. Secondly, we design a cutting plane algorithm based on Benders decomposition to find tight bounds for the problem. The numerical experiments show superb performance of the proposed algorithms compared with commercial software. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 600–614, 2017     

The fateful phoenix: the revival of Al-Qa’ida in Iraq

Although the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is seen as a novel manifestation of Islamic extremism, it is in fact the latest, albeit perhaps the most effective, of a long line of revivalist movements in the Islamic and the Arab worlds. Its motivations – hisba and jihad – differ little from its predecessors and its ambitions – to create a state organised in accordance with the precepts of the Islamic caliphate – reflect a long-standing Islamic ambition. It differs, of course, in terms of the sophistication of its political and military strategies, which mirror the contemporary complexities of the world in which it operates, but its objectives recall long-standing Islamic ideals, even if articulated in radically brutal and extremist ways. More importantly, perhaps, ISIS or Da’ish, to give it its Arabic sobriquet, reflects the enormous degree of resentment inside the Middle East at the ways in which Western powers have intervened in regional affairs over recent years, particularly their support for regimes and economic systems there that have betrayed, in the popular imaginary, the essential principles of social justice that lie at the root of Islamic vision of ideal social order. Indeed, in many respects, its analysis of the world in which it operates and of the objectives it seeks differ little in essence from those any other resistance and rejectionist movement, whether religious or sectarian. More specifically, it has been the sectarian conflict that resulted from the reversal of political order in Iraq as a result of the 2003 American-led invasion that has driven the success of the movement in capturing widespread Sunni support. Whether it can manage the complexities of the administration of a state remains open to question.     

Merely ‘Docile Self-Deception’? German Experiences with Nuclear Consultation in NATO

ABSTRACT

Recent nuclear-weapons-related consultation in NATO within the framework of the Defence and Deterrence Posture Review sheds light on historical experiences with nuclear consultation in NATO. In the early years of the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), which became the main forum for multilateral nuclear consultation in the alliance, developing a nuclear weapons first use doctrine was of particular importance. This process led to the adoption of the Provisional Political Guidelines (PPGs) on the threat to initiate the use of nuclear weapons. With a focus on West Germany as the primary addressee of the NPG, it will be postulated that nuclear consultation functioned and may still be seen as an essential tool to manage the credibility of US extended nuclear deterrence in the framework of NATO.     

基于粒子滤波的目标跟踪抗野值算法

运用粒子滤波对目标位置进行跟踪时,测量数据的异常突变点、目标的机动转弯、粒子数量的制约和重要性密度函数的优劣都会导致估计误差较大的野值出现,这将严重影响雷达对目标的跟踪精度。现有的野值剔除方法在目标发生机动时,都存在误剔率较高的问题。针对这个问题,采用莱特准则与机动门限准则相结合的方法,提出了不确定观测点的概念,设计了一种适用于机动目标的抗野值粒子滤波算法。仿真结果表明,该方法能较好地检测和更新野值,降低跟踪误差,提高跟踪精度。     

基于多Agent无人机协同侦察任务规划模型

建立了多无人机协同侦察任务规划模型,在考虑侦察时间间隔约束和目标载荷需求基础上,给出了位于不同基地的无人机优化部署和调度策略,并提出了基于多Agent的优化搜索仿真算法,利用Matlab实现了无人机优化配置和任务规划模型,得出了无人机优化配置和任务规划方案,最后分析了模型算法存在的某些不足,提出了模型改进的方向。     

动态滑翔运动建模、机理分析与航迹优化

信天翁凭借动态滑翔的飞行技巧从梯度风中获取能量,从而在几乎不拍翅膀的情况下进行长时间、长距离飞行,这种技巧应用于小型无人机上可拓展其完成任务的能力。基于飞行器动力学对梯度风场中的无人机运动方程进行推导和简化处理;利用简化的运动方程,分别从非惯性参考系中的动能定理和机械能变化的角度,对动态滑翔获取能量的机理进行分析;利用微分平坦法,以最小平均控制输入变化率为目标函数,对徘徊模式和平移模式的动态滑翔航迹进行优化计算。分析结果表明:逆风爬升、顺风下滑是动态滑翔基本获能方式。优化结果表明:控制输入变得更加平滑,甚至出现阶段性的常值,使得控制更加简化;徘徊模式下,当风梯度作为决策变量时,优化过程可在[0,0.5 s-1]的区间上找到使得目标函数值最小的风梯度;平移模式下,目标函数值在该区间上单调递减。     

基于改进空战威胁评估模型的权重计算方法比较

针对多无人机(UAV)任务网协同空战态势威胁评估问题,在现有基本模型基础上增加考虑气象环境对威胁评估要素的影响和无人机的自主可靠性系数两个实际因素,提出一种改进的超视距空战威胁评估模型;同时,应用串联电阻分压法、改进AHP法和熵权法分别计算融合模型中各威胁指标的权重系数;进而,在考虑己方战机对敌方战机综合威胁与优势的基础上,介绍了战机协同空战目标分配的基本方案。最后,应用上述3种权重计算方法进行空战威胁仿真计算,计算结果表明改进空战威胁评估模型可有效改善空战决策性能。     

一种改进的均方根容积粒子滤波算法

传统的粒子滤波算法在重要性采样估计时忽略了当前量测影响。在非线性场景下,传统的粒子滤波导致个别粒子具有大权值,造成估计结果精度差。针对该问题,结合均方根容积卡尔曼滤波(SCKF)算法和Gating技术,提出了一种新的重要性函数估计算法。本算法将后验概率作为重要性采样函数,通过利用SCKF和统计距离,建立粒子与量测的关联关系,实现对重要性采样函数的均值和协方差矩阵的估计。而后,使用粒子滤波算法,对多目标状态和数目进行估计。实验表明,在非线性跟踪场景下,本算法估计精度高,估计结果稳定。     

65 nm工艺双层三维静态存储器的软错误分析与评估

新兴的三维静态存储器将代替二维静态存储器被广泛用于高性能微处理器中,但它依然会受到软错误的危害。为了能够快速、自动分析多层管芯堆叠结构的三维静态存储器软错误特性,搭建了三维静态存储器软错误分析平台。利用该平台对以字线划分设计的三维静态存储器和同等规模的二维静态存储器分别进行软错误分析,并对分析结果进行对比。研究结果表明二维和三维静态存储器的翻转截面几乎相同,但三维静态存储器单个字中发生的软错误要比二维静态存储器更严重,导致难以使用纠检错技术对其进行加固。静态模式下二维和三维静态存储器敏感节点均分布于存储阵列中,表明静态模式下逻辑电路不会引发软错误。     

一种改进的基于交互式模型的机动目标跟踪算法

针对传统的以匀速(CV)或匀加速(CA)运动作为目标运动模型的卡尔曼跟踪滤波器的计算量大及跟踪精度低的固有缺陷,提出了一种基于CV和CA的交互式卡尔曼滤波模型的机动目标跟踪算法,该算法能在保持直线运动跟踪精度不变的前提下,使做曲线运动的目标的跟踪精度逼近做直线运动的目标的跟踪精度。并将CV和CA模型混合起来进行仿真估计,系统仿真结果表明该算法提高了系统的跟踪精度。