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901.
Fulfillment by Amazon versus fulfillment by seller: An interpretable risk-adjusted fulfillment model
With dual-channel choices, E-retailers fulfill their demands by either the inventory stored in third-party distribution centers, or by in-house inventory. In this article, using data from a wedding gown E-retailer in China, we analyze the differences between two fulfillment choices—fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) and fulfillment by seller (FBS). In particular, we want to understand the impact of FBA that will bring to sales and profit, compared to FBS, and how the impact is related to product features such as sizes and colors. We develop a risk-adjusted fulfillment model to address this problem, where the E-retailer's risk attitude to FBA is incorporated. We denote the profit gaps between FBA and FBS as the rewards for this E-retailer fulfilling products using FBA, our goal is to maximize the E-retailer's total rewards using predictive analytics. We adopt the generalized linear model to predict the expected rewards, while controlling for the variability of the reward distribution. We apply our model on a set of real data, and develop an explicit decision rule that can be easily implemented in practice. The numerical experiments show that our interpretable decision rule can improve the E-retailer's total rewards by more than 35%. 相似文献
902.
为解决不确定条件下航空不安全事件量化分析的难题,基于随机和模糊理论对影响飞行安全的主客观变量进行了混合不确定描述,将难以用概率表示的主观变量处理成为隶属度λ水平截集上服从均匀分布的随机变量。在此基础上,提出了混合不确定条件下航空安全指标和数值计算方法,所提指标和方法能够简洁、直观、准确地反映航空安全水平。通过航空安全领域普遍采用的Bow-tie模型对轮胎爆破事件安全性指标和隶属度关系进行仿真分析。结果表明:将不确定变量控制在一定隶属度水平,能显著提高航空安全指标。 相似文献
903.
针对遥测振动信号冲击强、响应周期短、共振频带宽和小样本等特点导致异类模式识别率低的问题,提出基于参照化流形空间融合学习的敏感特征提取与异常检测方法。采用多尺度分析方法将信号正交无遗漏地分解到各尺度带中,提取多尺度特征构造高维特征集;以相同的正常信号样本结合相同类型的异常样本建立专属参照化模型单元,采用线性流形学习获取各参照化模型单元多尺度流形特征差异,增强异常特征的敏感性。融合各参照化模型单元的投影矩阵对原始特征集进行升维再学习,获取低维多尺度敏感流形特征;输入到分类器实现对未知样本状态辨识。实测信号处理结果验证了算法的有效性。 相似文献
904.
当前装备供应保障系统中维修器材存在短缺、积压以及配送系统效率低下等问题,亟须对生产、库存和配送作业环节进行集成优化。为客观反映各个决策环节,将该问题公式化为一个混合整数线性规划模型,针对该模型多变量、多约束的特点,提出了一个基于数学规划的两阶启发式算法对其进行求解。结合算例,检验模型的可行性,并选取求解器CPLEX和一个类似的迭代算法与该算法在求解质量和运算时间方面进行对比与分析。结果表明,提出的模型是合理可行的,该算法在求解不同规模实例时表现出优异的性能。 相似文献
905.
全地形环境感知系统是研究车辆自主能力的重要部分,也是车辆安全行驶的绝对基础,而车辆的可通行区域分析则是环境感知系统中不可缺少的一步。本文分析了全地形环境下可能对装备车辆的地面通行性产生影响的众多地理环境因素,并结合多类型的地理环境因素,对包含地面坡度、植被、水系和建筑物等因素在内的,能够反映地面可通行性的车辆可通行区域以及装备车辆的可行驶区域进行规划。依托 ArcGIS平台和C++编程语言,对ArcGIS进行了二次开发,建立了一套针对全地形复杂环境下的路面可通行区域分析模型。该模型可以根据装备车辆的不同参数实现地理因子影响系数的设定,满足不同条件下车辆的可通行区域规划。 相似文献
906.
907.
《防务技术》2020,16(3):571-587
Modeling influencing factors of battle damage is one of essential works in implementing military industrial logistics simulation to explore battle damage laws knowledge. However, one of key challenges in designing the simulation system could be how to reasonably determine simulation model input and build a bridge to link battle damage model and battle damage laws knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel knowledge-oriented modeling method for influencing factors of battle damage in military industrial logistics, integrating conceptual analysis, conceptual modeling, quantitative modeling and simulation implementation. We conceptualize influencing factors of battle damage by using the principle of hierarchical decomposition, thus classifying the related battle damage knowledge logically. Then, we construct the conceptual model of influencing factors of battle damage by using Entity-Relationship approach, thus describing their interactions reasonably. Subsequently, we extract the important influencing factors by using social network analysis, thus evaluating their importance quantitatively and further clarifying the elements of simulation. Finally, we develop an agent-based military industry logistics simulation system by taking the modeling results on influencing factors of battle damage as simulation model input, and obtain simulation model output, i.e., new battle damage laws knowledge, thus verifying feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that this method can be used to support human decision-making and action. 相似文献
908.
《防务技术》2020,16(4):777-786
In order to study the dynamic response and calculate the axial dynamic coefficient of the monolayer cylindrical explosion vessel, the wall of vessel is simplified as a multi-degree-of-freedom (MDoF) undamped elastic foundation beam. Decoupling the coupled motion equation and using Duhamel's integrals, the solutions in generalized coordinates of the equations under exponentially decaying loads, square wave loads and triangular wave loads are calculated. These solutions are consistent in form with the solutions of single-degree-of-freedom (SDoF) undamped forced vibration simplified model. Based on the model, equivalent MDoF design method (also called MDoF dynamic coefficient method) of cylindrical explosion vessel is proposed. The traditional method can only predict the dynamic coefficient of torus portion around the explosion center, but this method can predict that of the vessel wall at any axial n dividing point position. It is verified that the prediction accuracy of this model is greatly improved compared with the SDoF model by comparing the results of this model with SDoF model and numerical simulation in different working conditions. However, the prediction accuracy decreases as the scaled distance decreases and approaches the end of the vessel, which is related to the accuracy of the empirical formula of the implosion load, the simplification of the explosion load direction, the boundary conditions, and the loading time difference. 相似文献
909.
ABSTRACTThe European arms industry is challenged by several adverse “headwinds.” Fragmentation leads to costly duplications and, in conjunction with stagnating budgets and sharply increasing costs, prevents firms from exploiting economies of scale and learning. This is exacerbated by size differentials vis-a-vis the leading US arms manufacturers and competition from emerging producers. As some “headwinds” are self-enforcing, far-reaching industrial and policy responses are required to improve the industry's outlook. As exports may not indefinitely compensate for low domestic demand, there is an economic imperative for further cross-border collaboration and consolidation. Despite various EU policy initiatives, progresses regarding the European Defence Equipment Market and strengthening the European Defence Technological Industrial Base have been relatively slow. It remains to be seen whether the European Defence Fund will be the proclaimed “game-changer,” raising competitiveness of the European arms industry. At the same time, the UK's withdrawal from the EU adds uncertainties. 相似文献
910.
《防务技术》2020,16(4):762-776
The cellulosic bast fibers are recognized as a justifiable and biodegradable substitute for producing moderate strength polymer composite materials because of their characteristics of renewability, eco-friendliness, and higher specific strength. Hence the aim of this research work is to fabricate Himalayan bast fibers (Nettle fiber (NF)/bauhinia vahlii fiber (BF)) based mono/hybrid epoxy composites at varying weight percentage of 2–6 wt% and evaluate the physical (void fraction and water absorption), mechanical (tensile strength, flexural strength, hardness) and sliding wear properties of as-fabricated composites. The 6 wt% NBF reinforced composites exhibited higher mechanical properties as compared to NF and BF composites with tensile strength of 34.04 MPa, flexural strength of 42.45 MPa, and hardness of 37.01 Hv respectively. The influence of various control factors (sliding velocity, NF/BF/NBF contents, normal load and sliding distance) on specific sliding wear rate of composites was evaluated by Taguchi (three factors at three levels) experimental design and the percentage contribution of these selected parameters on sliding wear performance was examined by Analysis of variance (ANOVA). The sliding wear property of as-developed composites was found to be greatly influenced by sliding velocity and the wear resistance was observed to be improved with the NF/BF/NBF contents. The wear mechanism of the as-fabricated composites has been elucidated by scanning electron microscopy analysis. The research outcomes demonstrated that the hybridization of Bauhinia vahlii fiber with Nettle fiber led to improve the mechanical and wear properties of epoxy composites. 相似文献