The limits of covert action: SAS operations during ‘Confrontation’, 1964–66

This article evaluates the performance of the Special Air Service (SAS) during secret cross-border raids conducted as part of Britain’s undeclared war against Indonesia from 1963–1966. The analysis reviews the existing debate on the SAS’ performance during this campaign; it looks more closely at how military effectiveness might be defined; and it then examines, using the SAS’ own operations reports, the nature of their activities and their success or failure. This article concludes that critics of the SAS’ effectiveness during Confrontation are right; but for the wrong reasons. SAS operations did indeed have less effect than orthodox accounts would have it. But the reasons for this lay not in their misuse but in the exigencies of British strategy. This article demonstrates an enduring truth – no matter how ‘special’ a military force might be, tactical excellence cannot compensate reliably for problems in strategy.     

固定翼反潜巡逻机作战效能评估

运用改进的Topsis评估模型对反潜巡逻机的作战效能进行评估,主要是对指标权重的计算方法进行改进:综合考虑客观熵权和专家主观权重得到综合权重,通过客观的熵权信息来调整主观权重的偏差,使得反潜巡逻机作战效能的评价结果更为合理。实例分析表明,该方法能够主客观相结合,简单有效,具有一定的推广应用价值。     

基于梯形直觉模糊数的动态多准则群决策方法

针对决策信息为梯形直觉模糊数的多准则决策问题,引入含参得分函数和相关系数提出了一种动态多准则群决策方法,首先利用参照方案相关系数总偏差最小的非线性规划模型求解客观准则权重,通过参数因子转化犹豫度集结得到各方案综合得分函数,最后根据参数动态变化进行MATLAB仿真分析并排序。该方法适用于准则权重已知和未知的情形,弥补了犹豫度缺失和基于距离测度决策方法的缺陷,并通过航空装备保障合同商的选择决策实例验证了有效性。     

Defining quantitative criteria for the physical protection system effectiveness of nuclear facilities

The article is devoted to problems of defining quantitative criteria for the physical protection system (PPS) effectiveness of nuclear facilities. The article briefly describes the scheme of the PPS development used in the nuclear industry in Russia, gives a review of existing approaches to defining the minimal acceptable value of the system's effectiveness, and reveals advantages and disadvantages of the approaches. The article describes in detail an approach based on facility categorization by potential losses and a technique of defining the minimal acceptable value of the PPS effectiveness developed on its base.     

基于云遗传算法的防空导弹目标分配问题

针对传统遗传算法在防空导弹目标优化分配中存在的缺陷,提出了一种更为有效的云遗传算法。通过该算法对防空导弹目标分配模型进行仿真求解,得出防空导弹射击目标的最优目标分配方案。通过算例分析,云遗传算法相比传统遗传算法收敛速度快,搜索效率高出一倍左右,对产生局部最优解情况进行了合理有效的控制,可操作性、优越性更强。     

基于SD方法的作战指挥决策系统效能分析模型

指挥决策系统是一个非线性的复杂系统,用一般的解析方法难以对其进行效能评估。在分析指挥决策系统构成的基础上,根据指挥决策的4个要素,建立了指挥决策系统的评估指标体系;综合考虑战术和技术指标,从指挥员影响度,指挥机关影响度,指挥信息系统影响度和决策信息影响度4个方面建立了指挥决策系统效能分析模型,前两项指标可以采用层次分析法等方法确定其效能值,后两项指标利用系统动力学方法,结合实际作战的具体战术指标建模,实现了效能值的动态评估分析。     

基于粒度计算的指控系统效能测度的探索性建模方法

分析了探索性分析模型的粒度原理,建立了基于粒度计算的指控系统效能测度的探索性分析模型,重点研究了探索性分析模型的建立,属性函数的构造和探索因子集的粒度获取方法,并结合多兵种联合作战案例,对使命完成时间测度进行了探索性分析,实验表明,基于粒度计算的探索性建模方法能够通过粒度的转换降低问题的复杂度,并在不同粒度层次上实现对问题描述的一致性。     

点型火灾报警探测器保护范围对布置的影响

分析了点型火灾报警探测器＂保护半径＂与＂保护面积＂的内在关系,得出了以保护半径为主,保护面积及修正系数为辅新型计算方法,使其在不规则平面更有可操作性,能充分发挥探测器效能,给设置留下了宽裕的选择范围,使设置更趋合理;在安全性不受影响下,探测器用量最大可节省12%。     

相关系数及其应用

在相关分析中,通常利用相关系数来分析或测定变量之间的线性相关程度。相关系数是描述两个变量或随机变量之间的线性相关程度的指标。相关系数的计算与分析是科学研究中常用的一种简单分析方法,根据相关系数可以对不同事物进行简单的聚类分析等。从相关系数的概念入手,给出相关系数的计算公式,列举了相关系数的应用。     

A conceptual framework for the analysis of civil-military relations and intelligence

ABSTRACT

The article argues that current conceptual approaches in civil-military relations are deeply flawed resulting in its irrelevance in analyzing major issues including war and the collapse of democracy. After highlighting major flaws in the work of the late Samuel Huntington and those who follow his approach, the article argues that other conceptual approaches, including Security Sector Reform, are also flawed, or in the case of the “military effectiveness” literature, largely irrelevant. In explaining the main causes of the flawed conceptual literature, the article highlights the absence of good data and challenges in methodology. While arguing that military forces are very unlikely to engage in armed combat, it highlights the roles and missions which in the world today are implanted by these forces. As it is virtually impossible to prove effectiveness of the armed forces in these roles and missions, the article proposes a conceptual approach based on requirements.