Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model

We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000     

基于地磁模式组的舰船消磁电流调整器

利用泰勒多项式的建模方法建立了地磁模式组 ,该模式组能够满足消磁电流调整器的应用要求 ,且具有很好的稳定性 ,均方根偏差很小 ,实际应用也比较方便 .在此基础上 ,提出了基于地磁模式组的无探头消磁电流调整器 ,该消磁电流调整器具有结构简单、可靠性高、水上水下通用及免除抗干扰调整等优点     

逻辑无环流装置在可逆伺服跟踪系统中的应用

以某型号高精度电视自动跟踪系统为例,阐述了可逆系统中环流的危害,克服环流应采用的技术措施,较详细地介绍了一种实用的逻辑无环流装置的工作原理、电路组成、设计原则、并给出了实验结果。     

新疆教育事业发展现状与未来展望

改革开放以来新疆教育事业得到了较怏的发展,取得了历史性的成就。全面推进九年义务教育的普及,大力发展职业教育,稳步发展高等教育,大力推进“双语”教学工作,形成了从幼儿教育到高等教育的完备体系。但是,当前我区教育事业发展中还存在一些问题,需要我们下大力气去解决,不断推动新疆教育事业的全面发展。     

蓄电池在线检测方法研究

在对阀控铅酸蓄电池的性能指标、失效机理、检测方法研究的基础上,通过比较各种检测方法,提出了一种新的蓄电池内阻在线检测方法——四线两端法,阐述了四线两端法的测试原理,给出了该方法在蓄电池在线检测中的检测步骤,同时分析了影响测量精度的主要因素,提出了提高测量精度所采取的措施,并给出系统测量误差。     

潜器支持母船阵位选择

针对缆控水下航行体在水下工作过程中,潜器支持母船和水下航行体的配合问题。以防止风流变化造成潜器脐带电缆与母船缠绕危险的发生,基于对风流环境的极限判断,对母船阵位的选择进行了研究,并提出了一种简易的选择模型,对指导水下航行体和支持母船的配合有一定的指导意义。     

载有时变电流细螺绕环的涡旋电场

根据涡旋电场叠加原理,计算了载有时变电流细螺绕环激发的涡旋电场的场强,其结果与文献[4]的有关结果完全一致,从而进一步验证了涡旋电场叠加原理的正确性。在此基础上,经过分析得出了载有时变电流细螺绕环涡旋电场的分布情况。     

磁调制式电流传感器的数学模型与性能分析

从基本的电路理论和铁磁学原理出发,推导了磁调制式电流传感器的数学模型,特别是对正弦电压激励下的传感器的输出和灵敏度进行了研究,为磁调制式电流传感器的设计打下了基础.     

Sequential and systematic sampling plans for the Markov‐dependent production process

Acceptance sampling plans are used to assess the quality of an ongoing production process, in addition to the lot acceptance. In this paper, we consider sampling inspection plans for monitoring the Markov‐dependent production process. We construct sequential plans that satisfy the usual probability requirements at acceptable quality level and rejectable quality level and, in addition, possess the minimum average sample number under semicurtailed inspection. As these plans result in large sample sizes, especially when the serial correlation is high, we suggest new plans called “systematic sampling plans.” The minimum average sample number systematic plans that satisfy the probability requirements are constructed. Our algorithm uses some simple recurrence relations to compute the required acceptance probabilities. The optimal systematic plans require much smaller sample sizes and acceptance numbers, compared to the sequential plans. However, they need larger production runs to make a decision. Tables for choosing appropriate sequential and systematic plans are provided. The problem of selecting the best systematic sampling plan is also addressed. The operating characteristic curves of some of the sequential and the systematic plans are compared, and are observed to be almost identical. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 451–467, 2001     

火灾事故调查的现状与对策

阐述当前我国火灾事故调查现状 ,分析当前火灾事故调查工作存在的问题 ,并提出了加强火灾事故调查工作的建议。